Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Older receivers

Do Adams, Hill have huge seasons left?

Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill got moved in big offseason trades, and I think age was a factor in both cases. Both players are now on the back halves of their careers, and that probably contributed in Green Bay and Kansas City choosing to move on from those guys.

This is the age-30 season for Adams. Hill is a year younger, but his game is more reliant on speed. How much money does a team want to tie up in these guys? (The Raiders and Dolphins obviously came up with different answers than the Packers and KC.)

Check out the chart below. It shows the top 100 fantasy seasons by wide receivers in the last 20 years. It shows how production tends to decline as players at older.

Of these top 100, 31 of them were authored by players who were either 25 or 26 years old. Those are the most popular years – the peak years. There are 15 guys who are 25 and there are 16 who are 26-year-olds. I’ve got these guys tagged with black dots.

After that, I see 9 who are 27-year-olds, 11 who are 28 and 12 who are 29.

Then you get into the 30s, where things start falling off. There are only five 30-year-olds on this list, and only six who are 31. There are six more who are 32 or older. I’ve got all 17 of the 30-year-olds in bold.

Adams and Hill, they’re moving into the older receiver range. (As is Cooper Kupp, who turns 29 later this month).

I wouldn’t expect I’ll be picking Adams or Hill on my teams this year. I’ve got Adams graded more favorably; I suppose there’s a chance I’ll wind up with him. With Hill, I wouldn’t think I’ll be in any drafts or auctions where he’ll even be considered (looking at my expectations relative to where he’ll go.)

TOP 100 WIDE RECEIVERS OF LAST 20 YEARS
YearPlayerAgeRecYdsTDPPRRk
2021Cooper Kupp, LAR28145194716439.51
2015Antonio Brown, Pitt.27136183411392.21
2014• Antonio Brown, Pitt.26129169814391.11
2007Randy Moss, N.E.3098149323385.31
2002Marvin Harrison, Ind.30143172211384.21
2003• Randy Moss, Min.26111163217378.01
2015• Julio Jones, Atl.2613618719377.12
2019• Michael Thomas, N.O.2614917259374.61
2011• Calvin Johnson, Det.2696168116361.21
2020Davante Adams, G.B.28115137418360.41
2003Torry Holt, St.L.27117169612359.12
2012Calvin Johnson, Det.2712219645348.41
2021Davante Adams, G.B.29123155311344.32
2015Brandon Marshall, NYJ31109150214343.23
2021• Deebo Samuel, S.F.2577140514343.23
2014Demaryius Thomas, Den.27111161911340.92
2005• Steve Smith, Car.26103156313339.81
2002• Hines Ward, Pitt.26112132912339.12
2018• DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.26115157211337.51
2011Wes Welker, N.E.3012215699335.92
2012Brandon Marshall, Chi.28118150811334.62
2018Tyreek Hill, K.C.2487147914334.02
2021Justin Jefferson, Min.22108161610332.84
2015DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.23111152111331.14
2004Muhsin Muhammad, Car.3193140516331.01
2018Julio Jones, Atl.2911316778329.93
2018• Davante Adams, G.B.26111138613329.64
2020• Tyreek Hill, K.C.2687127617328.92
2020Stefon Diggs, Buff.2712715358328.63
2014Jordy Nelson, G.B.2998151913327.93
2018Antonio Brown, Pitt.30104129715323.75
2008Andre Johnson, Hou.2711515758322.51
2002Terrell Owens, S.F.29100130014321.93
2018• Michael Thomas, N.O.2512514059319.56
2015Odell Beckham, NYG2396145013319.35
2013• Demaryius Thomas, Den.2692143014319.01
2010Roddy White, Atl.29115138910318.21
2014• Dez Bryant, Dall.2688132016316.04
2007Reggie Wayne, Ind.29104151010315.42
2013• Antonio Brown, Pitt.2511014999315.12
2009Andre Johnson, Hou.2810115699314.91
2013Josh Gordon, Cle.228716469314.43
2017• DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.2596137813311.81
2008• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.2596143112311.12
2017Antonio Brown, Pitt.2910115339310.32
2018Adam Thielen, Min.2811313739309.37
2005Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.22103140910308.02
2016Antonio Brown, Pitt.28106128412307.31
2007Terrell Owens, Dall.3481135515307.03
2016Jordy Nelson, G.B.3197125714306.72
2013• A.J. Green, Cin.2598142611306.64
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.2181145513306.65
2013Brandon Marshall, Chi.29100129512305.55
2013Calvin Johnson, Det.2884149212305.26
2007Braylon Edwards, Cle.2480128916304.94
2016Mike Evans, T.B.2396132112304.13
2015Allen Robinson, Jac.2280140014304.06
2012Dez Bryant, Dall.2492138212303.73
2006Marvin Harrison, Ind.3495136612303.61
2004Joe Horn, N.O.3294139911301.92
2012A.J. Green, Cin.2497135011301.84
2014Emmanuel Sanders, Den.2710114049301.85
2007Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.24100140910300.95
2007T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin.30112114312299.76
2014• Julio Jones, Atl.2510415936299.46
2004• Javon Walker, G.B.2689138212299.23
2018JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.2211114267298.98
2016Odell Beckham, NYG24101136710298.64
2021Tyreek Hill, K.C.2711112399298.56
2005Chad Johnson, Cin.279714329297.53
2012• Demaryius Thomas, Den.2594143410297.45
2014Randall Cobb, G.B.2491128712297.47
2014Odell Beckham, NYG2291130512297.08
2012Andre Johnson, Hou.3111215984295.86
2013• Dez Bryant, Dall.2593123313294.47
2002• Randy Moss, Min.2510613477292.54
2018• Mike Evans, T.B.258615249292.49
2020DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz.2811514076291.84
2012Wes Welker, N.E.3111813546291.47
2004Torry Holt, St.L.2894137210291.24
2005• Anquan Boldin, Ariz.2510214027290.74
2003Anquan Boldin, Ariz.2310113778290.73
2011• Victor Cruz, NYG258215369289.93
2002Eric Moulds, Buff.29100129210289.95
2007Chad Johnson, Cin.299314408289.77
2009Randy Moss, N.E.3283126413289.42
2005Torry Holt, St.L.2910213319289.35
2004Marvin Harrison, Ind.3286111315287.35
2009Reggie Wayne, Ind.31100126410286.43
2010Brandon Lloyd, Den.2977144811286.02
2005• Santana Moss, Was.268414839286.06
2013Alshon Jeffery, Chi.238914217285.68
2021Stefon Diggs, Buff.28103122510285.57
2003• Chad Johnson, Cin.2590135510285.54
2009Wes Welker, N.E.2812313484285.44
2008Calvin Johnson, Det.2378133112285.03
2015Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.3210912159284.57
2011• Jordy Nelson, G.B.2668126315284.34
2009• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.2697109213284.25
2017• Keenan Allen, LAC2510213937284.23

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index