Saw a story last week that Ezekiel Elliott feels he has something to prove this season. He was playing hurt last year, which he feels contributed to him finishing with lesser numbers. A perennial first-round pick, Elliott is slipping to the third and fourth rounds in drafts so far.
At some point, he starts to look like a value -- if it's true that injuries were behind his modest production a year ago. But another way to look at things is that Elliott has been declining for years. It's not all on him (the Dallas offensive line has also gone from being an elite group to maybe only an above-average one, and even that when everyone is healthy, which they never are). But this is a results-oriented business, and Elliott's results haven't been great of late.
Elliott has been a starter for six years, and to his credit, he's been awfully durable. He's missed just one game to injury (and 6 more to a suspension) in all those seasons. Iron man type stuff for any NFL player, especially a running back.
But whether it's him or the line in front of him or the offense itself, Elliott's production has slowly dropped off, to where he's gone from being one of the league's best per-game running backs, to one of its lesser performers.
Among all running backs with at least 225 carries, Elliott in his first three seasons averaged 109, 98 and 96 rushing yards per game. Those are top-8 numbers over the course of his career. In his fourth season, he was still up at 85 yards per game -- still top-20 over those six seasons.
But his last two seasons, he slipped to 65 and 59 rushing yards per game -- bottom 20 numbers among all running backs with that many attempts. He's down there with a bunch of other players who no one has coveted in drafts in those years, including Jordan Howard, Frank Gore, Peyton Barber, Lamar Miller and a declining Todd Gurley. (Data from pro-football-reference.com was used in compiling this table.)
| RUSHING YARDS PER GAME, 2016-2021 (225-PLUS ATTEMPTS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Season | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | Y/G |
| Derrick Henry | 2020 | 378 | 2027 | 5.4 | 17 | 126.7 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2020 | 312 | 1557 | 5.0 | 16 | 111.2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | 322 | 1631 | 5.1 | 15 | 108.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2021 | 332 | 1811 | 5.5 | 18 | 106.5 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2016 | 261 | 1268 | 4.9 | 7 | 105.7 |
| Derrick Henry | 2019 | 303 | 1540 | 5.1 | 16 | 102.7 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2017 | 242 | 983 | 4.1 | 7 | 98.3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2018 | 304 | 1434 | 4.7 | 6 | 95.6 |
| Nick Chubb | 2019 | 298 | 1494 | 5.0 | 8 | 93.4 |
| Nick Chubb | 2021 | 228 | 1259 | 5.5 | 8 | 89.9 |
| Todd Gurley | 2018 | 256 | 1251 | 4.9 | 17 | 89.4 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2021 | 249 | 1159 | 4.7 | 6 | 89.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2019 | 242 | 1150 | 4.8 | 7 | 88.5 |
| Jordan Howard | 2016 | 252 | 1313 | 5.2 | 6 | 87.5 |
| Todd Gurley | 2017 | 279 | 1305 | 4.7 | 13 | 87.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2019 | 287 | 1387 | 4.8 | 15 | 86.7 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2017 | 321 | 1291 | 4.0 | 9 | 86.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2019 | 301 | 1357 | 4.5 | 12 | 84.8 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2016 | 260 | 1272 | 4.9 | 8 | 84.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2016 | 234 | 1267 | 5.4 | 13 | 84.5 |
| Joe Mixon | 2018 | 237 | 1168 | 4.9 | 8 | 83.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2017 | 272 | 1327 | 4.9 | 8 | 82.9 |
| Chris Carson | 2018 | 247 | 1151 | 4.7 | 9 | 82.2 |
| Chris Carson | 2019 | 278 | 1230 | 4.4 | 7 | 82.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2018 | 261 | 1307 | 5.0 | 11 | 81.7 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2019 | 250 | 1135 | 4.5 | 13 | 81.1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2016 | 293 | 1287 | 4.4 | 9 | 80.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2017 | 268 | 1040 | 3.9 | 9 | 80.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2020 | 232 | 1169 | 5.0 | 11 | 77.9 |
| Marlon Mack | 2019 | 247 | 1091 | 4.4 | 8 | 77.9 |
| David Johnson | 2016 | 293 | 1239 | 4.2 | 16 | 77.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2019 | 265 | 1152 | 4.3 | 3 | 76.8 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2016 | 254 | 997 | 3.9 | 10 | 76.7 |
| Lamar Miller | 2016 | 268 | 1073 | 4.0 | 5 | 76.6 |
| James Robinson | 2020 | 240 | 1070 | 4.5 | 7 | 76.4 |
| Joe Mixon | 2021 | 292 | 1205 | 4.1 | 13 | 75.3 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2016 | 299 | 1161 | 3.9 | 18 | 72.6 |
| David Montgomery | 2020 | 247 | 1070 | 4.3 | 8 | 71.3 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2017 | 287 | 1138 | 4.0 | 6 | 71.1 |
| Joe Mixon | 2019 | 278 | 1137 | 4.1 | 5 | 71.1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2020 | 273 | 1065 | 3.9 | 12 | 71.0 |
| Najee Harris | 2021 | 307 | 1200 | 3.9 | 7 | 70.6 |
| Mark Ingram | 2017 | 230 | 1124 | 4.9 | 12 | 70.3 |
| Jordan Howard | 2017 | 276 | 1122 | 4.1 | 9 | 70.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2021 | 240 | 898 | 3.7 | 4 | 69.1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2017 | 284 | 1105 | 3.9 | 8 | 69.1 |
| Aaron Jones | 2019 | 236 | 1084 | 4.6 | 16 | 67.8 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2016 | 227 | 1079 | 4.8 | 11 | 67.4 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2019 | 245 | 1070 | 4.4 | 6 | 66.9 |
| David Montgomery | 2021 | 225 | 849 | 3.8 | 7 | 65.3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2020 | 244 | 979 | 4.0 | 6 | 65.3 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2018 | 251 | 1042 | 4.2 | 7 | 65.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2021 | 258 | 1037 | 4.0 | 7 | 64.8 |
| Frank Gore | 2016 | 263 | 1025 | 3.9 | 4 | 64.1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2020 | 239 | 955 | 4.0 | 10 | 63.7 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2017 | 245 | 1007 | 4.1 | 3 | 62.9 |
| Frank Gore | 2017 | 261 | 961 | 3.7 | 3 | 60.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2021 | 237 | 1002 | 4.2 | 10 | 58.9 |
| David Johnson | 2018 | 258 | 940 | 3.6 | 7 | 58.8 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2017 | 240 | 938 | 3.9 | 8 | 58.6 |
| Jordan Howard | 2018 | 250 | 935 | 3.7 | 9 | 58.4 |
| Sony Michel | 2019 | 247 | 912 | 3.7 | 7 | 57.0 |
| David Montgomery | 2019 | 242 | 889 | 3.7 | 6 | 55.6 |
| Lamar Miller | 2017 | 238 | 888 | 3.7 | 3 | 55.5 |
| Todd Gurley | 2016 | 278 | 885 | 3.2 | 6 | 55.3 |
| Peyton Barber | 2018 | 234 | 871 | 3.7 | 5 | 54.4 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2019 | 245 | 789 | 3.2 | 3 | 52.6 |
At some point in drafts, you probably need to just take him. If Dallas' line is healthy, Elliott might have another 1,000-yard, 8-9 TD season in him. Volume counts for a lot, and Tony Pollard hasn't shown enough with his chances to say that he's going to have a greatly expanded role.
But when you select Elliott, he's still going early enough that you're taking him ahead of a more exciting player at another position -- a possible top 20 wideout or top 5 tight end. Maybe you select Elliott if you used your top 2-3 picks on those positions, and really need a starting running back. I think that's the roster construction that has you needing to take him. Hasn't happened to me in a draft yet, and with what seems to be a steady decline in the player/line, I suspect it might not in any future drafts, either.
--Andy Richardson