Story out yesterday that the Saints and Alvin Kamara are bracing for a six-game league suspension for the Pro Bowl eve altercation which resulted in Kamara being arrested on battery charges. When a suspension would actually occur is less certain, but it's something early drafters need to think about.
Perhaps the league will allow the legal situation to play out, in which case any suspension might come in 2023. Or perhaps Kamara will be placed on the commissioner's exempt list, in which case he could miss games before even being suspended. But a conservative approach makes it reasonable to plan for not having Kamara for multiple games. If you draft him, what other running back should you protect (situations like this are party of why "handcuff" is not really a great term anymore) that pick with? Here are the current candidates on the roster.
Mark Ingram: Some debate here recently about how much respect should be given to the likely starter if Kamara isn't available in Week 1. Ingram has been a longtime NFL starter, including for both Houston early last year and New Orleans when Kamara was hurt. He had a couple of games with 70-plus rushing yards for the Texans, and ran for 88 yards and caught 6 passes in a game at Philadelphia for the Saints last year.
On the other hand, he's 32 years old, and in his last three games for the Saints last year he carried 23 times for 55 yards -- that's a sloth-like 2.4 yards per attempt. And yet, if I were to draft Kamara, Ingram is the most reasonable late- (last?) round pick to protect that selection with.
Abram Smith: If you want to go with a longer shot to start, but with probably more upside, there's undrafted rookie Abram Smith. The Baylor product earns points for versatility, having switched to linebacker as a junior in 202o, then busting out with a huge rushing season (1,601 yards and 12 TDs) as a senior in 2021. If Ingram opens as the starter, you know he'll just be a brief fill-in until he collapses into dust on the field. Smith could at least potentially run with the starting job and be the team's starter a year from now, when the organization might be rebuilding; Kamara himself turns 27 in July, so he's not necessarily long for a featured back role even if he puts his legal situation behind him. On the flip side, Smith has to actually make the team for any of that good stuff to happen, which is no guarantee for a player none of the league's teams spent a draft pick on.
Tony Jones: Jones joins Ingram and Smith as the running backs on the roster who might actually start for the Saints this season. Jones did a pretty fair impression of Kamara, or a younger Ingram, last preseason, rushing for 106 yards (on just 12 carries) and a touchdown in two preseason games while also catching 6 passes. I scooped him up in dynasty and chortled at the future star I'd acquired, while the Saints proceeded to cut Latavius Murray.
Alas, Jones wound up on IR early in the season, and when he returned proceeded to average just 2.6 yards per attempt, leading to the team desperately trading for Ingram. Jones' time in the spotlight, as they say, was brutal and short. But he's been around for a year now and maybe knows what he's doing a little more, and while he has far less of a track record for performance than Ingram, it's still more than Smith. It is in the realm of possibility that he gets a shot at the starting job at some point again, although I think last year's flop probably means he's just 3rd in line, at best.
Dwayne Washington: On the off-chance I haven't been dismissive enough toward Ingram, you'll be glad to know I've saved some derision for Washington. He's also old for a running back (28 years old), and he hasn't even played enough in recent years to be considered an afterthought. Washington has carried the ball a total of 20 times the last three seasons. He seems to make the roster as an insurance policy to an insurance policy, and also special teams. He will not be starting for New Orleans.
Devine Ozigbo: Ozigbo achieved some small degree of notoriety in fantasy circles in the 2020 preseason, when the Jaguars cut Leonard Fournette and Ozigbo became a possibility to start at running back (a job ultimately seized by James Robinson). Since then Ozigbo has gone on to make Washington's career look good, having carried the ball just 11 times (for 25 yards) in 21 games. Ozigbo will also not be starting for New Orleans, if he makes the team at all.
So those are the current options. Your interest in them may depend on if you believe a Kamara absence will come down this summer -- that's my lean -- or only after the season. I'm going with the idea that Kamara (whose court hearing is currently scheduled for August 1st) will miss time at the beginning of the year, and that six-game timeline is as likely as any. I suspect it will be Ingram starting in Week 1, but perhaps Smith getting the most work by Week 3, with Jones a longer shot. So I've rostered Smith in dynasty, and he's the one I'd be tossing a late-round draft pick at, as well.
--Andy Richardson