All the stories we're hearing lately -- Chris Godwin unlikely to be fully healthy at the start of the season, Rob Gronkowski retiring -- have served to lift Russell Gage's value into the stratosphere. Seems very likely he'll be the No. 2 after Mike Evans in Week 1. But this news also makes me a little more interested in Godwin.
Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15, and there was recent speculation he could open the regular season on the PUP list. That would cost him at least the first six games, which is an eternity in fantasy leagues -- a large chunk of the regular season.
But at the moment, that's just speculation. Maybe he'll miss just 2-3 games, and be at something close to full strength in Week 4 or 5. Or maybe it won't be until Week 7, and he'll have to be reserved on benches or IR spots (where eligible) for a large portion of the year.
None of that is great, but at some point in drafts he's going to fall far enough that he becomes a value -- if you can afford to be patient. On a per-game basis, Godwin has been pretty awesome the last three seasons.
In 2019, Godwin finished as the No. 2 PPR wideout, but -- after missing seven games -- just 31st and 14th the last two years. But looked at on a per-game basis, he's been a lot better over those three seasons than those latter two rankings.
Last year, he was 7th, at just under 18 points per game, among all wide receivers to start more than half the season. Over the last three years, among all wideouts to start more than half those contests, his 17.8 points per game ranks 5th. Only wideouts better: Adams, Kupp, Hill and Jefferson. That's the list.
Table below shows the top 50 PPR wideouts over the last three seasons, with per-game numbers.
|WIDE RECEIVER POINTS PER GAME, PPR (2019-2021)|
I don't know how often I'll actually select Godwin. One of the reasons why I don't draft early if I can help it is to have as much injury/health/rehab info as I can.
But at some point in most drafts, he's going to fall too far. Because at some point during the season, he's probably going to step back in as one of the team's top 2 wideouts. I have some interest in him.