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Gabriel Davis

TD-strong wideout a breakout favorite

At what point does a sleeper stop being a sleeper? The hype for Gabriel Davis has reached the point where he's being drafted a lot closer to his ceiling than his floor. It's a little worrying if you're hoping to get him on your team, but it's also understandable.

Freshest in everyone's memory is Davis scoring 4 touchdowns in Buffalo's playoff loss at Kansas City. All he needs, it seems, are more opportunities, and it looks pretty likely he'll get them. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are gone, and Buffalo made only one notable addition (Jamison Crowder).

Even before his monster playoff game, Davis has been very impressive with his opportunities. Despite playing sparingly his first two years, the fourth-rounder caught 7 and 6 TDs in those seasons -- on just 35 receptions each year. Among all wideouts to catch 5-plus touchdowns in either of those seasons, that's one of the very best scoring rates in the league.

Table show all wideouts to catch at least 5 TDs in either of the last two years. It's sorted by the percentage of touchdowns to catch; Davis has two of the top 11 performances the last two seasons. Get him more opportunities -- say a rise up to 60-70 receptions -- with one of the NFL's best young quarterbacks, and he could really be something special in lineups.

WIDE RECEIVER TDS/RECEPTION, 2020-2021
YearPlayerTgtRecYdsAvgTDTD/Rec
2021Jauan Jennings, S.F.382428211.8520.8%
2020Gabriel Davis, Buff.623559917.1720.0%
2021Allen Lazard, G.B.604051312.8820.0%
2021DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz.644257213.6819.0%
2021Mike Evans, T.B.11474103514.01418.9%
2020Adam Thielen, Min.1087492512.51418.9%
2020Mike Evans, T.B.10970100614.41318.6%
2020Marquez Valdes-Scantling, G.B.633369020.9618.2%
2021Randall Cobb, G.B.392837513.4517.9%
2020Tyreek Hill, K.C.13587127614.71517.2%
2021Gabriel Davis, Buff.633554915.7617.1%
2020David Moore, Sea.473541711.9617.1%
2020Nelson Agholor, L.V.824889618.7816.7%
2020Isaiah McKenzie, Buff.34302829.4516.7%
2020James Washington, Pitt.563039213.1516.7%
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.12881145518.01316.0%
2021DK Metcalf, Sea.1297596712.91216.0%
2020A.J. Brown, Ten.10670107515.41115.7%
2020Davante Adams, G.B.149115137412.01815.7%
2020Will Fuller, Hou.755387916.6815.1%
2021Adam Thielen, Min.956772610.81014.9%
2020Chase Claypool, Pitt.1096287314.1914.5%
2021K.J. Osborn, Min.825065513.1714.0%
2020Marquise Brown, Balt.1005876913.3813.8%
2021Cedrick Wilson, Dall.614560213.4613.3%
2021Marquez Callaway, N.O.844669815.2613.0%
2020Christian Kirk, Ariz.794862112.9612.5%
2020DK Metcalf, Sea.12983130315.71012.0%
2021Van Jefferson, LAR895080216.0612.0%
2021Byron Pringle, K.C.604256813.5511.9%
2021Mike Williams, LAC12976114615.1911.8%
2020Marvin Jones, Det.1157697812.9911.8%
2021Amari Cooper, Dall.1046886512.7811.8%
2020Tim Patrick, Den.795174214.6611.8%
2021Elijah Moore, NYJ774353812.5511.6%
2021Odell Beckham, 2TM824453712.2511.4%
2020Zach Pascal, Ind.714462914.3511.4%
2020Greg Ward, Phil.79534197.9611.3%
2021Cooper Kupp, LAR191145194713.41611.0%
2021Tyler Lockett, Sea.10773117516.1811.0%
2020Chris Godwin, T.B.846584012.9710.8%
2020Mike Williams, LAC854875615.8510.4%
2020Jamison Crowder, NYJ895969911.9610.2%
2020Tyler Lockett, Sea.132100105410.51010.0%
2020Calvin Ridley, Atl.14390137415.3910.0%
2021Stefon Diggs, Buff.164103122511.9109.7%
2021Tim Patrick, Den.855373413.959.4%
2021Robby Anderson, Car.110535199.859.4%
2020DJ Chark, Jac.935370613.359.4%
2020JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.128978318.699.3%
2021Justin Jefferson, Min.167108161615.0109.3%
2021Kendrick Bourne, N.E.705580014.659.1%
2020Keelan Cole, Jac.885564211.759.1%
2020Tee Higgins, Cin.1086790813.669.0%
2021Davante Adams, G.B.169123155312.6118.9%
2021Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.845682614.858.9%
2020T.Y. Hilton, Ind.935676213.658.9%
2021Hunter Renfrow, L.V.128103103810.198.7%
2020Laviska Shenault, Jac.795860010.358.6%
2020Michael Gallup, Dall.1055984314.358.5%
2020Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.966074812.558.3%
2020Emmanuel Sanders, N.O.826172611.958.2%
2021Tyreek Hill, K.C.159111123911.298.1%
2021Tee Higgins, Cin.11074109114.768.1%
2020Keenan Allen, LAC1471009929.988.0%
2020Justin Jefferson, Min.12588140015.978.0%
2020Diontae Johnson, Pitt.1448892310.578.0%
2021A.J. Brown, Ten.1056386913.857.9%
2021DeVonta Smith, Phil.1046491614.357.8%
2021Deebo Samuel, S.F.12177140518.367.8%
2020Corey Davis, Ten.926598415.157.7%
2021CeeDee Lamb, Dall.12079110214.067.6%
2021Diontae Johnson, Pitt.169107116110.987.5%
2021Tyler Boyd, Cin.946782812.457.5%
2020Brandin Cooks, Hou.11981115014.267.4%
2021Michael Pittman, Ind.12988108212.366.8%
2020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.1117493512.656.8%
2021Brandin Cooks, Hou.13490103711.566.7%
2020Robert Woods, LAR1299093610.466.7%
2021Marquise Brown, Balt.14691100811.166.6%
2021Terry McLaurin, Was.13077105313.756.5%
2021Christian Kirk, Ariz.1037798212.856.5%
2020Stefon Diggs, Buff.166127153512.186.3%
2020Allen Robinson, Chi.151102125012.365.9%
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.14010410159.865.8%
2021Keenan Allen, LAC157106113810.765.7%
2021Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.1199091210.155.6%
2020Amari Cooper, Dall.13092111412.155.4%
2020DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz.160115140712.265.2%
2021Chris Godwin, T.B.12798110311.355.1%

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index