At what point does a sleeper stop being a sleeper? The hype for Gabriel Davis has reached the point where he's being drafted a lot closer to his ceiling than his floor. It's a little worrying if you're hoping to get him on your team, but it's also understandable.
Freshest in everyone's memory is Davis scoring 4 touchdowns in Buffalo's playoff loss at Kansas City. All he needs, it seems, are more opportunities, and it looks pretty likely he'll get them. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are gone, and Buffalo made only one notable addition (Jamison Crowder).
Even before his monster playoff game, Davis has been very impressive with his opportunities. Despite playing sparingly his first two years, the fourth-rounder caught 7 and 6 TDs in those seasons -- on just 35 receptions each year. Among all wideouts to catch 5-plus touchdowns in either of those seasons, that's one of the very best scoring rates in the league.
Table show all wideouts to catch at least 5 TDs in either of the last two years. It's sorted by the percentage of touchdowns to catch; Davis has two of the top 11 performances the last two seasons. Get him more opportunities -- say a rise up to 60-70 receptions -- with one of the NFL's best young quarterbacks, and he could really be something special in lineups.
WIDE RECEIVER TDS/RECEPTION, 2020-2021 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | TD/Rec |
2021 | Jauan Jennings, S.F. | 38 | 24 | 282 | 11.8 | 5 | 20.8% |
2020 | Gabriel Davis, Buff. | 62 | 35 | 599 | 17.1 | 7 | 20.0% |
2021 | Allen Lazard, G.B. | 60 | 40 | 513 | 12.8 | 8 | 20.0% |
2021 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz. | 64 | 42 | 572 | 13.6 | 8 | 19.0% |
2021 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 114 | 74 | 1035 | 14.0 | 14 | 18.9% |
2020 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 108 | 74 | 925 | 12.5 | 14 | 18.9% |
2020 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 109 | 70 | 1006 | 14.4 | 13 | 18.6% |
2020 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling, G.B. | 63 | 33 | 690 | 20.9 | 6 | 18.2% |
2021 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 39 | 28 | 375 | 13.4 | 5 | 17.9% |
2020 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 135 | 87 | 1276 | 14.7 | 15 | 17.2% |
2021 | Gabriel Davis, Buff. | 63 | 35 | 549 | 15.7 | 6 | 17.1% |
2020 | David Moore, Sea. | 47 | 35 | 417 | 11.9 | 6 | 17.1% |
2020 | Nelson Agholor, L.V. | 82 | 48 | 896 | 18.7 | 8 | 16.7% |
2020 | Isaiah McKenzie, Buff. | 34 | 30 | 282 | 9.4 | 5 | 16.7% |
2020 | James Washington, Pitt. | 56 | 30 | 392 | 13.1 | 5 | 16.7% |
2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 18.0 | 13 | 16.0% |
2021 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 129 | 75 | 967 | 12.9 | 12 | 16.0% |
2020 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 106 | 70 | 1075 | 15.4 | 11 | 15.7% |
2020 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 149 | 115 | 1374 | 12.0 | 18 | 15.7% |
2020 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 75 | 53 | 879 | 16.6 | 8 | 15.1% |
2021 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 95 | 67 | 726 | 10.8 | 10 | 14.9% |
2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 109 | 62 | 873 | 14.1 | 9 | 14.5% |
2021 | K.J. Osborn, Min. | 82 | 50 | 655 | 13.1 | 7 | 14.0% |
2020 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 100 | 58 | 769 | 13.3 | 8 | 13.8% |
2021 | Cedrick Wilson, Dall. | 61 | 45 | 602 | 13.4 | 6 | 13.3% |
2021 | Marquez Callaway, N.O. | 84 | 46 | 698 | 15.2 | 6 | 13.0% |
2020 | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 79 | 48 | 621 | 12.9 | 6 | 12.5% |
2020 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 129 | 83 | 1303 | 15.7 | 10 | 12.0% |
2021 | Van Jefferson, LAR | 89 | 50 | 802 | 16.0 | 6 | 12.0% |
2021 | Byron Pringle, K.C. | 60 | 42 | 568 | 13.5 | 5 | 11.9% |
2021 | Mike Williams, LAC | 129 | 76 | 1146 | 15.1 | 9 | 11.8% |
2020 | Marvin Jones, Det. | 115 | 76 | 978 | 12.9 | 9 | 11.8% |
2021 | Amari Cooper, Dall. | 104 | 68 | 865 | 12.7 | 8 | 11.8% |
2020 | Tim Patrick, Den. | 79 | 51 | 742 | 14.6 | 6 | 11.8% |
2021 | Elijah Moore, NYJ | 77 | 43 | 538 | 12.5 | 5 | 11.6% |
2021 | Odell Beckham, 2TM | 82 | 44 | 537 | 12.2 | 5 | 11.4% |
2020 | Zach Pascal, Ind. | 71 | 44 | 629 | 14.3 | 5 | 11.4% |
2020 | Greg Ward, Phil. | 79 | 53 | 419 | 7.9 | 6 | 11.3% |
2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 191 | 145 | 1947 | 13.4 | 16 | 11.0% |
2021 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 107 | 73 | 1175 | 16.1 | 8 | 11.0% |
2020 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 84 | 65 | 840 | 12.9 | 7 | 10.8% |
2020 | Mike Williams, LAC | 85 | 48 | 756 | 15.8 | 5 | 10.4% |
2020 | Jamison Crowder, NYJ | 89 | 59 | 699 | 11.9 | 6 | 10.2% |
2020 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 132 | 100 | 1054 | 10.5 | 10 | 10.0% |
2020 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 143 | 90 | 1374 | 15.3 | 9 | 10.0% |
2021 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 164 | 103 | 1225 | 11.9 | 10 | 9.7% |
2021 | Tim Patrick, Den. | 85 | 53 | 734 | 13.9 | 5 | 9.4% |
2021 | Robby Anderson, Car. | 110 | 53 | 519 | 9.8 | 5 | 9.4% |
2020 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 93 | 53 | 706 | 13.3 | 5 | 9.4% |
2020 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 128 | 97 | 831 | 8.6 | 9 | 9.3% |
2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 167 | 108 | 1616 | 15.0 | 10 | 9.3% |
2021 | Kendrick Bourne, N.E. | 70 | 55 | 800 | 14.6 | 5 | 9.1% |
2020 | Keelan Cole, Jac. | 88 | 55 | 642 | 11.7 | 5 | 9.1% |
2020 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 108 | 67 | 908 | 13.6 | 6 | 9.0% |
2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 169 | 123 | 1553 | 12.6 | 11 | 8.9% |
2021 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 84 | 56 | 826 | 14.8 | 5 | 8.9% |
2020 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 93 | 56 | 762 | 13.6 | 5 | 8.9% |
2021 | Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 128 | 103 | 1038 | 10.1 | 9 | 8.7% |
2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 79 | 58 | 600 | 10.3 | 5 | 8.6% |
2020 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | 105 | 59 | 843 | 14.3 | 5 | 8.5% |
2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 96 | 60 | 748 | 12.5 | 5 | 8.3% |
2020 | Emmanuel Sanders, N.O. | 82 | 61 | 726 | 11.9 | 5 | 8.2% |
2021 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 159 | 111 | 1239 | 11.2 | 9 | 8.1% |
2021 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 110 | 74 | 1091 | 14.7 | 6 | 8.1% |
2020 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 147 | 100 | 992 | 9.9 | 8 | 8.0% |
2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1400 | 15.9 | 7 | 8.0% |
2020 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 144 | 88 | 923 | 10.5 | 7 | 8.0% |
2021 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 105 | 63 | 869 | 13.8 | 5 | 7.9% |
2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 104 | 64 | 916 | 14.3 | 5 | 7.8% |
2021 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 121 | 77 | 1405 | 18.3 | 6 | 7.8% |
2020 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 92 | 65 | 984 | 15.1 | 5 | 7.7% |
2021 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 120 | 79 | 1102 | 14.0 | 6 | 7.6% |
2021 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 169 | 107 | 1161 | 10.9 | 8 | 7.5% |
2021 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 94 | 67 | 828 | 12.4 | 5 | 7.5% |
2020 | Brandin Cooks, Hou. | 119 | 81 | 1150 | 14.2 | 6 | 7.4% |
2021 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 129 | 88 | 1082 | 12.3 | 6 | 6.8% |
2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 111 | 74 | 935 | 12.6 | 5 | 6.8% |
2021 | Brandin Cooks, Hou. | 134 | 90 | 1037 | 11.5 | 6 | 6.7% |
2020 | Robert Woods, LAR | 129 | 90 | 936 | 10.4 | 6 | 6.7% |
2021 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 146 | 91 | 1008 | 11.1 | 6 | 6.6% |
2021 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 130 | 77 | 1053 | 13.7 | 5 | 6.5% |
2021 | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 103 | 77 | 982 | 12.8 | 5 | 6.5% |
2020 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 166 | 127 | 1535 | 12.1 | 8 | 6.3% |
2020 | Allen Robinson, Chi. | 151 | 102 | 1250 | 12.3 | 6 | 5.9% |
2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 9.8 | 6 | 5.8% |
2021 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 157 | 106 | 1138 | 10.7 | 6 | 5.7% |
2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 119 | 90 | 912 | 10.1 | 5 | 5.6% |
2020 | Amari Cooper, Dall. | 130 | 92 | 1114 | 12.1 | 5 | 5.4% |
2020 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz. | 160 | 115 | 1407 | 12.2 | 6 | 5.2% |
2021 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 127 | 98 | 1103 | 11.3 | 5 | 5.1% |
--Andy Richardson