In the comments to an article about Jonathan Taylor last week, a reader asked if his heavy workload last year should be a concern for how he'll perform this year. Taylor carried the ball 332 times, one of two (with Najee Harris) 300-carry running backs last year.
I took a look at all the other running backs to have at least 300 carries in the last 20 years. There have been 91 other backs, so about 4-5 per year. How did they fare a year later?
For the purposes of the study, I wanted to look at running backs who actually played the next season. That removed Ricky Willliams (who stepped away after a 300-carry season) and would have removed Barry Sanders (who retired) had I gone back a little further. But 91 backs is about as big a table as I'd want to run.
Anyway, the numbers look pretty decent as far as the chances of Taylor and Harris coming right back and putting up good numbers in 2022.
Of those 91 previous backs, just over half of them (46) came right back and were top-12 fantasy backs (PPR) a year later. A quarter (23) finished in the top 5. Pretty good odds of pulling a No. 1 running back (in 12-team leagues) out of those 300-carry backs one year later.
More than two-thirds (64 of 91, which is 70 percent) of those backs finished in the top 20 a year later. Obviously if you draft Taylor or Harris in the first round you're looking for more than a top-20 running back. But still, that's a weekly fantasy starter in every league, and there's something to be said for that. (Additional note: what an awesome back LaDainian Tomlinson was.)
Table shows rushing stats and total touchdowns from the 300-carry seasons, followed by their rushing, receiving, touchdowns and PPR rankings the following year.
300-CARRY RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2002-2021) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Prev Yr | Att | Run | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 307-1220-6 | 291 | 1364 | 704 | 15 | 376.9 | 1 |
2006 | L. Tomlinson, S.D. | 339-1462-20 | 348 | 1815 | 508 | 31 | 483.3 | 1 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 353-1696-20 | 370 | 1880 | 78 | 28 | 378.8 | 1 |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 313-1615-24 | 320 | 1420 | 690 | 27 | 447.0 | 1 |
2009 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 363-1760-10 | 314 | 1383 | 436 | 18 | 332.9 | 2 |
2007 | L. Tomlinson, S.D. | 348-1815-31 | 315 | 1474 | 475 | 18 | 367.8 | 2 |
2005 | L. Tomlinson, S.D. | 339-1335-18 | 339 | 1462 | 370 | 20 | 368.6 | 2 |
2003 | L. Tomlinson, S.D. | 372-1683-15 | 313 | 1645 | 725 | 17 | 444.1 | 2 |
2004 | L. Tomlinson, S.D. | 313-1645-17 | 339 | 1335 | 441 | 18 | 340.5 | 2 |
2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 303-1540-18 | 378 | 2027 | 114 | 17 | 337.1 | 3 |
2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 304-1434-9 | 301 | 1357 | 420 | 14 | 315.7 | 3 |
2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 336-1750-21 | 416 | 1789 | 410 | 19 | 374.9 | 3 |
2011 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 327-1616-18 | 278 | 1224 | 617 | 12 | 309.1 | 3 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 301-1257-14 | 280 | 1306 | 367 | 17 | 306.3 | 4 |
2005 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 322-1518-15 | 357 | 1860 | 530 | 11 | 361.0 | 4 |
2004 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 326-1435-16 | 353 | 1696 | 170 | 20 | 329.6 | 4 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 308-1327-7 | 387 | 2066 | 205 | 14 | 337.1 | 4 |
2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 315-1590-12 | 301 | 1257 | 316 | 14 | 277.3 | 5 |
2008 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 310-1119-2 | 290 | 1312 | 207 | 15 | 277.9 | 5 |
2004 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 323-1308-2 | 371 | 1697 | 245 | 14 | 319.2 | 5 |
2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 325-1388-16 | 351 | 1641 | 516 | 8 | 332.7 | 5 |
2010 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 314-1383-18 | 283 | 1298 | 341 | 13 | 277.9 | 5 |
2005 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 334-1548-9 | 360 | 1506 | 337 | 14 | 312.3 | 5 |
2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 358-2006-16 | 316 | 1364 | 245 | 12 | 276.9 | 6 |
2008 | L. Tomlinson, S.D. | 315-1474-18 | 292 | 1110 | 426 | 12 | 277.6 | 6 |
2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 357-1860-11 | 327 | 1662 | 465 | 5 | 300.7 | 6 |
2004 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 310-1259-11 | 334 | 1548 | 483 | 9 | 310.1 | 6 |
2007 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 314-1132-9 | 298 | 1304 | 248 | 11 | 251.2 | 6 |
2005 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 343-1315-7 | 352 | 1516 | 216 | 11 | 276.1 | 7 |
2007 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 312-1695-9 | 260 | 1102 | 436 | 6 | 242.8 | 7 |
2011 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 334-1371-12 | 301 | 1340 | 168 | 11 | 233.8 | 8 |
2005 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 361-1454-12 | 337 | 1458 | 90 | 12 | 249.8 | 8 |
2011 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 316-1364-12 | 262 | 1047 | 418 | 4 | 227.5 | 9 |
2003 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 383-1853-17 | 392 | 1372 | 351 | 10 | 282.3 | 9 |
2020 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 301-1357-14 | 244 | 979 | 338 | 8 | 233.7 | 9 |
2008 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 325-1262-11 | 342 | 1487 | 218 | 9 | 252.5 | 10 |
2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 330-1241-6 | 260 | 1145 | 333 | 6 | 225.8 | 10 |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 348-2097-13 | 279 | 1266 | 171 | 11 | 238.7 | 10 |
2009 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 312-1203-5 | 282 | 1253 | 197 | 11 | 236.0 | 11 |
2006 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 337-1458-12 | 341 | 1309 | 124 | 12 | 238.3 | 11 |
2003 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 304-1387-11 | 278 | 1216 | 461 | 3 | 256.7 | 11 |
2004 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 355-1883-20 | 259 | 1163 | 275 | 8 | 236.8 | 11 |
2014 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 314-1607-11 | 312 | 1319 | 155 | 5 | 205.4 | 12 |
2010 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 324-1416-4 | 330 | 1241 | 383 | 6 | 244.4 | 12 |
2009 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 316-1238-12 | 258 | 929 | 471 | 4 | 223.0 | 12 |
2017 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 322-1631-16 | 242 | 983 | 269 | 9 | 205.2 | 12 |
2007 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. | 337-1159-6 | 324 | 1222 | 204 | 7 | 208.6 | 13 |
2003 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 325-1438-14 | 331 | 1356 | 158 | 11 | 245.4 | 13 |
2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 312-1391-16 | 299 | 1324 | 317 | 7 | 240.1 | 13 |
2015 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 392-1845-13 | 193 | 702 | 322 | 7 | 188.4 | 15 |
2007 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 346-1528-16 | 237 | 1002 | 271 | 6 | 205.4 | 15 |
2005 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 302-1188-14 | 230 | 976 | 337 | 6 | 206.3 | 15 |
2010 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 301-1251-6 | 321 | 1111 | 178 | 8 | 206.9 | 16 |
2021 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 312-1557-17 | 249 | 1159 | 224 | 6 | 210.3 | 16 |
2006 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 360-1506-14 | 337 | 1159 | 217 | 6 | 211.6 | 17 |
2004 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 351-1641-8 | 269 | 1074 | 228 | 9 | 218.2 | 17 |
2015 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 312-1319-5 | 203 | 895 | 292 | 5 | 182.7 | 17 |
2005 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 345-1635-13 | 209 | 733 | 181 | 13 | 191.4 | 17 |
2006 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 314-1335-9 | 296 | 1210 | 154 | 6 | 208.2 | 18 |
2004 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 320-1420-27 | 196 | 892 | 187 | 15 | 216.9 | 18 |
2007 | Chester Taylor, Min. | 303-1216-6 | 157 | 844 | 281 | 7 | 183.5 | 19 |
2004 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 345-1572-7 | 260 | 1224 | 345 | 3 | 210.9 | 19 |
2013 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 335-1613-13 | 276 | 1275 | 78 | 7 | 186.3 | 20 |
2007 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 337-1494-16 | 321 | 1316 | 164 | 2 | 183.0 | 20 |
2012 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 301-1340-11 | 222 | 800 | 128 | 11 | 177.8 | 22 |
2011 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 324-1273-13 | 228 | 928 | 154 | 9 | 180.2 | 22 |
2021 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 378-2027-17 | 219 | 937 | 154 | 10 | 193.4 | 22 |
2003 | Eddie George, Ten. | 343-1165-14 | 312 | 1031 | 163 | 5 | 171.4 | 23 |
2011 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 321-1111-8 | 273 | 1067 | 82 | 6 | 165.9 | 26 |
2006 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 325-1247-5 | 259 | 990 | 156 | 6 | 168.6 | 26 |
2010 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 331-1402-14 | 245 | 896 | 122 | 6 | 151.8 | 27 |
2008 | LenDale White, Ten. | 303-1110-7 | 200 | 773 | 16 | 15 | 173.9 | 27 |
2005 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 371-1697-14 | 220 | 735 | 118 | 5 | 139.3 | 27 |
2004 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 387-2066-14 | 235 | 1006 | 116 | 7 | 164.2 | 28 |
2006 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 370-1880-28 | 252 | 896 | 48 | 7 | 148.4 | 33 |
2006 | Reuben Droughns, Cle. | 309-1232-2 | 220 | 758 | 169 | 4 | 143.7 | 34 |
2009 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 376-1699-17 | 178 | 871 | 35 | 10 | 155.6 | 34 |
2007 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 416-1789-19 | 158 | 559 | 186 | 4 | 128.5 | 37 |
2006 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 352-1516-11 | 127 | 523 | 170 | 7 | 128.3 | 37 |
2003 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 314-1311-7 | 138 | 541 | 71 | 2 | 84.2 | 46 |
2008 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 321-1316-2 | 210 | 791 | 13 | 5 | 113.4 | 46 |
2013 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 351-1424-17 | 121 | 542 | 183 | 2 | 108.5 | 46 |
2004 | Eddie George, Ten. | 312-1031-5 | 132 | 432 | 83 | 4 | 84.5 | 48 |
2007 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 341-1309-12 | 170 | 497 | 110 | 4 | 99.7 | 49 |
2012 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 343-1606-11 | 86 | 414 | 86 | 2 | 76.0 | 54 |
2008 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. | 324-1222-7 | 133 | 514 | 85 | 3 | 91.9 | 56 |
2013 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 319-1454-12 | 127 | 456 | 66 | 1 | 70.2 | 57 |
2009 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 342-1487-9 | 124 | 494 | 57 | 2 | 76.1 | 58 |
2004 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 331-1356-11 | 94 | 326 | 45 | 0 | 47.1 | 77 |
2016 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 327-1485-11 | 37 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 11.0 | 122 |
2004 | Stephen Davis, Car. | 318-1444-8 | 24 | 92 | 32 | 0 | 14.4 | 123 |
2022 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 332-1811-20 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 307-1200-10 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
A lot of those success stories were heavily involved as a receiver. That should again be the case for Harris, while it's a little less certain with Taylor (who will lose at least some passing-game work to Nyheim Hines).
But it's an encouraging track record for how those workhorse backs will fare this season. And what their workloads will be like: 35 came right back with 300-plus carries again. Nearly two-thirds (58) had at least 250-plus carries. If you promise me another 250-plus carries from each of these guys, along with their passing game work, I'm pretty comfortable I'll be drafting a top-5 (or close to it) running back in 2022.
Also in the comments on that previous article, a reader asked about even busier running backs -- not just 300 carries, but 370 offensive touches (carries plus receptions). I'll get those numbers up later in the week.
--Andy Richardson