We have been kicking around lifespans of running backs. That is, when should one start to move away from a featured back because he has too many carries or too many seasons on his odometer? With that in mind, now might be a good time to roll out some of the similar numbers with wide receivers.
With most wide receivers, wear and tear isn’t a big issue. There are a few who play with a physical style (looking at you, Deebo Samuel), making them more prone to wide receivers. But in general (with wide receivers) it’s the fear of them getting less explosive and athletic with age that’s the concern, rather than the potential of them wearing down because of a 90-catch season.
Yesterday I posted a chart showing the 50 running backs who’ve finished with top-5 numbers in the last 10 years. Below see the same figures, except for wide receivers. And the players trend older.
On the running back chart, only 13 of the 50 players (about 1 in 4) had already completed five seasons of their career. With the wide receivers, there’s 19 of those guys. That’s an increase of about 50 percent, and it gets more pronounced if you’re looking at the best of the best. Of the top 30 running backs, only 5 were in their sixth season or later. With wide receiver, 13 of those top 30 were in season 6 or later.
I take this as evidence that when you have a really good wide receiver who’s in his third, fourth or fifth season, he’s got a better chance of hanging around and continuing to be elite for another clump of seasons. With running backs, those players are more likely to burn out (think Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott). Not that every player can simply be plugged into that profile, but that’s the general tendency.
On the chart below, there are 11 players who are in their fifth season, and there are 11 players who are in their third season. Those are the busiest years. There are only 4-5 seasons in all of the other years between No. 2 and No. 8. Only one rookie (JaMarr Chase) is on the list, and only two players with more than 9 years of experience (10th-season Brandon Marshall and 14th-year Larry Fitzgerald).
Focusing this on the 2022 season, I see age creeping in with some of the wide receivers. Davante Adams is a great receiver, but he’s well into the back half of his career; he’s in his 9th year. Tyreek Hill is two seasons behind Adams, but with his game being heavily dependent on his elite quickness, I think it’s fair to worry about him some. And DeAndre Hopkins (pictured) is in his 10th season; I’m assuming he’s now something less than what he was previously.
Justin Jefferson has put together a pair of big seasons and is entering just his third year. He looks awfully compelling, especially in a dynasty format.
| TOP-5 WIDE RECEIVERS (last 10 yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 5 | 145 | 1,947 | 16 | 439.5 | 1 |
| 2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 6 | 136 | 1,834 | 11 | 392.2 | 1 |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 5 | 129 | 1,698 | 14 | 391.1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 5 | 136 | 1,871 | 9 | 377.1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 4 | 149 | 1,725 | 9 | 374.6 | 1 |
| 2020 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 7 | 115 | 1,374 | 18 | 360.4 | 1 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 6 | 122 | 1,964 | 5 | 348.4 | 1 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 8 | 123 | 1,553 | 11 | 344.3 | 2 |
| 2015 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 10 | 109 | 1,502 | 14 | 343.2 | 3 |
| 2021 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 3 | 77 | 1,405 | 14 | 343.2 | 3 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 5 | 111 | 1,619 | 11 | 340.9 | 2 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 6 | 115 | 1,572 | 11 | 337.5 | 1 |
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 7 | 118 | 1,508 | 11 | 334.6 | 2 |
| 2018 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 3 | 87 | 1,479 | 14 | 334.0 | 2 |
| 2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 2 | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | 332.8 | 4 |
| 2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 3 | 111 | 1,521 | 11 | 331.1 | 4 |
| 2018 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 8 | 113 | 1,677 | 8 | 329.9 | 3 |
| 2018 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 5 | 111 | 1,386 | 13 | 329.6 | 4 |
| 2020 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 5 | 87 | 1,276 | 17 | 328.9 | 2 |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 6 | 127 | 1,535 | 8 | 328.6 | 3 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 7 | 98 | 1,519 | 13 | 327.9 | 3 |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 9 | 104 | 1,297 | 15 | 323.7 | 5 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 2 | 96 | 1,450 | 13 | 319.3 | 5 |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 4 | 92 | 1,430 | 14 | 319.0 | 1 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 5 | 88 | 1,320 | 16 | 316.0 | 4 |
| 2013 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 4 | 110 | 1,499 | 9 | 315.1 | 2 |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Cle. | 2 | 87 | 1,646 | 9 | 314.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 5 | 96 | 1,378 | 13 | 311.8 | 1 |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 8 | 101 | 1,533 | 9 | 310.3 | 2 |
| 2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 7 | 106 | 1,284 | 12 | 307.3 | 1 |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 9 | 97 | 1,257 | 14 | 306.7 | 2 |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 1 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 3 | 98 | 1,426 | 11 | 306.6 | 4 |
| 2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 8 | 100 | 1,295 | 12 | 305.5 | 5 |
| 2016 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 3 | 96 | 1,321 | 12 | 304.1 | 3 |
| 2012 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 3 | 92 | 1,382 | 12 | 303.7 | 3 |
| 2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 2 | 97 | 1,350 | 11 | 301.8 | 4 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 5 | 101 | 1,404 | 9 | 301.8 | 5 |
| 2016 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 3 | 101 | 1,367 | 10 | 298.6 | 4 |
| 2012 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 3 | 94 | 1,434 | 10 | 297.4 | 5 |
| 2020 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz. | 8 | 115 | 1,407 | 6 | 291.8 | 4 |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 5 | 102 | 1,393 | 7 | 284.2 | 3 |
| 2020 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 3 | 90 | 1,374 | 9 | 283.5 | 5 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 3 | 86 | 1,333 | 9 | 276.1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 9 | 99 | 1,394 | 6 | 274.1 | 3 |
| 2016 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 5 | 91 | 1,448 | 6 | 273.8 | 5 |
| 2019 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 7 | 104 | 1,165 | 7 | 270.6 | 4 |
| 2019 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 3 | 94 | 1,161 | 10 | 270.5 | 5 |
| 2017 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 4 | 112 | 987 | 9 | 264.0 | 4 |
| 2017 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 14 | 109 | 1,156 | 6 | 263.7 | 5 |
—Ian Allan