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Seattle running backs

Huge workload for Penny?

If you should wind up in a fantasy league with Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, you'll likely have a hard time drafting Rashaad Penny. Seems like a strong possibility Condotta selects him first, since he believes a "realistic projection" has Penny getting 20 carries per game.

That's a lot, but Condotta points out that Penny averaged that much in his four 100-yard games late last season, and that's the template for how Seattle wants to play this year. He doesn't think the odds of Chris Carson returning from neck fusion surgery are good (I strongly agree with this), and doesn't seem to expect a big role from second-rounder Ken Walker. That's one I disagree on.

Seattle selected Walker early in the second round. That alone isn't assurance of a major role, but it's a favorable sign. When teams select running backs that early, more often than not they give them a decent amount of work.

I looked at the last 20 years of second-round picks (and these are players taken anywhere in the round; Walker was selected just 9 picks into it). Setting aside guys who were injured and missed their entire rookie seasons, there have been 47 other second-rounders since 2000.

Of those players, 29 (62 percent) got at least 100 carries in their rookie seasons. Fourteen (just under a third) were top-25 fantasy backs; 20 at least finished in the top 35 at the position (PPR).

That doesn't make Walker a premium selection at the position, but it suggests a strong likelihood he'll have a significant role in the offense. When teams select running backs in the second round, those guys tend to play early and often. So even if you're not in the camp that expects Penny to get hurt, as he has for most of his career to this point, imagining him averaging 20 carries per game, even in a run-heavy Seattle offense, seems wildly optimistic.

In the table of second-rounders, sorted by rookie year rushing yards, top-25 fantasy backs are in bold.

2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-2021
PkYearPlayerAttRunNoRecTDRk
512002Clinton Portis, Den.273150833364177
442008Matt Forte, Chi.316123863477122
382001Anthony Thomas, Chi.278118322178717
612013Eddie Lacy, G.B.284117835257118
412020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.232116936299126
552014Jeremy Hill, Cin.222112427215910
352018Nick Chubb, Cle.192996201491017
602006Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.16694146436168
352021Javonte Williams, Den.20390343316717
482013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.24486045399815
432004Julius Jones, Dall.19781917109731
532019Miles Sanders, Phil.17981850509615
552020J.K. Dobbins, Balt.13480518120924
362015T.J. Yeldon, Jac.18274036279328
582001Travis Henry, Buff.21372922179430
372013Giovani Bernard, Cin.17069556514813
432018Kerryon Johnson, Det.11864132213433
532009LeSean McCoy, Phil.15563740308432
482017Joe Mixon, Cin.17862630287433
522020Cam Akers, LAR14562511123345
542015Ameer Abdullah, Det.14359725183344
622011Daniel Thomas, Mia.1655811272151
542014Bishop Sankey, Ten.15256918133244
582013Montee Ball, Den.12055920145443
352020D'Andre Swift, Det.114521463571016
452016Derrick Henry, Ten.11049013137545
552008Ray Rice, Balt.10745433273049
342003DeShaun Foster, Car.11342926207242
412004Tatum Bell, Den.75396580363
442005J.J. Arrington, Ariz.11237025139253
412017Dalvin Cook, Min.743541190272
572014Carlos Hyde, S.F.833331268461
512010Toby Gerhart, Min.8132221167158
562002Ladell Betts, Was.6530712154161
522007Brian Leonard, St.L.8630330183056
492001LaMont Jordan, NYJ39292744271
632007Brandon Jackson, G.B.7526716130167
452006LenDale White, Ten.612441460072
622020AJ Dillon, G.B.46242221283
552004Greg Jones, Jac.62162313383
542002Maurice Morris, Sea.32153325194
612012LaMichael James, S.F.271253290116
622013Christine Michael, Sea.1879000131
362010Dexter McCluster, K.C.187121209265
562011Shane Vereen, N.E.1557001122
502012Isaiah Pead, St.L.10543160130
382018Ronald Jones, T.B.2344733195

Penny was great late last year, and he'll open as the lead back in a run-dominated offense. But 20 carries a game seems optimistic, and the team's second-rounder not having a significant role strikes me as unlikely. I think more of a one-two punch backfield is reasonable, with Walker getting 10-12 carries a game, and another back mixing in for passing situations. I wouldn't be selecting Penny in Condotta's leagues. I would have some interest in Walker.

--Andy Richardson

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