Desmond Ridder looked pretty good last night, making me wonder when he might get a chance to start for the Falcons this year. This team isn't going anywhere, and at some point they'll want to see what he can do. Recent history gives him fairly long odds of starting that many games, though.
Marcus Mariota, it must be noted, has had some success at times in the NFL, and he also looked solid last night. Performing against Jets second-stringers doesn't mean much, but he'll open as the starter, and maybe he'll stay there for a while. Teams have tended to lightly regard, or be patient with, third-round picks.
Since 2000, there have been 32 quarterbacks selected in the third round. That includes three this year: Ridder, Matt Corral and Malik Willis. Of those previous 29, only 13 have made any starts at all their first season; just seven (24%) have started more than 5 games as rookies. Only three (Russell Wilson, Mike Glennon and Davis Mills last year) have started double-digit games. Wilson is the only one who finished with top-20 numbers as a rookie.
Table shows third-rounders this century to start at least one game their rookie seasons, sorted by their fantasy finish (among quarterbacks) that season.
| THIRD-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2000-PRESENT (ROOKIE STARTS) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Rk |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 252 | 393 | 3118 | 26 | 10 | 11 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 13 | 247 | 416 | 2608 | 19 | 9 | 25 |
| 2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 11 | 263 | 394 | 2664 | 16 | 10 | 29 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 9 | 151 | 269 | 1630 | 7 | 8 | 30 |
| 2016 | Cody Kessler, Cle. | 8 | 128 | 195 | 1380 | 6 | 2 | 32 |
| 2010 | Colt McCoy, Cle. | 8 | 135 | 222 | 1576 | 6 | 9 | 32 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 5 | 123 | 224 | 1430 | 4 | 6 | 33 |
| 2012 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 6 | 161 | 265 | 1699 | 6 | 5 | 34 |
| 2005 | Charlie Frye, Cle. | 5 | 98 | 164 | 1002 | 4 | 5 | 40 |
| 2016 | Jacoby Brissett, N.E. | 2 | 34 | 55 | 400 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
| 2004 | Matt Schaub, Atl. | 1 | 33 | 70 | 330 | 1 | 4 | 53 |
| 2019 | Will Grier, Car. | 2 | 28 | 52 | 228 | 0 | 4 | 56 |
| 2003 | Dave Ragone, Hou. | 2 | 20 | 40 | 135 | 0 | 1 | 57 |
Of this year's rookie third-rounders, Corral is headed to IR with a Lisfranc injury. Willis is trying to beat out Logan Woodside for the No. 2 job in Tennessee -- possible, but based on what I've seen out of Willis this preseason, I don't think Mike Vrabel is going to be comfortable putting the youngster on the field and asking him to run the offense. If Willis starts games, I think it will be because Tennessee has slipped from contention.
Ridder seems like he has a decent chance of being the next rookie third-rounder to start more than 5 games. Atlanta's going to probably slip out of the playoff picture, and/or Mariota seems a strong candidate to get benched or injured at some point.
But for him to be just the second of these quarterbacks to rank higher than 25th among quarterbacks, joining Wilson -- well, he'll need to start 10-plus games, most likely, and he'll need to run a lot. Otherwise, he looks pretty much like a dynasty hold, but not a player to be considering at all in 2022.
--Andy Richardson