It's looking more and more likely that Dameon Pierce is going to be the best of the rookies, and probably a really good running back right out of the box. He’s going to be the starter right away in Houston, and he’s very impressive.

Pierce carried 5 times for 49 yards in his preseason debut, and he had a similar kind of game last night. They played him for a series, and he banged out 37 yards on 6 carries, capped by a 1-yard touchdown. It seems like he falls forward for a few extra yards on every carry. He’s good.

Pierce lasted until the fourth round in the draft, which is looking silly now. I think that’s stemming largely from him being underused at Florida.

Last night’s game, by the way, featured another back who was underused in college. To me, Jordan Mason (lightly used at Georgia Tech) looks like he might be better than either of the running backs the 49ers have drafted with third-round picks the last two years.

With Pierce, I think we’re past the point of being able to call him a sleeper. He’s not making it out of the third rounds in fantasy drafts, and I think we’ll seem him going in the second.

It’s rare for lightly-regarded rookie running backs to have big seasons, but it does happen occasionally. In the last 20 years, 38 rookie running backs have finished with top-20 numbers. Five of those players were drafted after the first three rounds.

TOP-20 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS (last 20 years)
YearPlayerRdRunRecTotalTDPPRRk
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG11,3077212,02815385.82
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.11,6313631,99416327.42
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.37288261,55414322.43
2002Clinton Portis, Den.21,5083641,87217322.27
2012Doug Martin, T.B.11,4544721,92612313.62
2008Matt Forte, Chi.21,2384771,71512306.52
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.11,2004671,66710300.73
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.31,3274551,78211297.24
2006Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.29414361,37716279.78
2008Steve Slaton, Hou.31,2823771,65910275.97
2006Reggie Bush, N.O.15657421,3079272.79
2012• Alfred Morris, Was.61,613771,69013258.07
2007Adrian Peterson, Min.11,3412681,60913257.95
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.21,1692991,46812254.86
2012Trent Richardson, Cle.19503671,31712254.78
2020• James Robinson, Jac.FA1,0703441,41410252.47
2008Chris Johnson, Ten.11,2282601,48810251.811
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.21,1782571,43511244.58
2003• Domanick Williams, Hou.41,0313511,3828233.214
2016• Jordan Howard, Chi.51,3132981,6117232.110
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.14356511,0867230.69
2017Leonard Fournette, Jac.11,0403021,34210230.210
2006Joseph Addai, Ind.11,0813251,4068228.613
2013Giovani Bernard, Cin.26955141,2098224.913
2018• Phillip Lindsay, Den.FA1,0372411,27810222.813
2019Miles Sanders, Phil.28185091,3276220.715
2013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.28603991,2598218.915
2015David Johnson, Ariz.35814571,03813217.87
2014Jeremy Hill, Cin.21,1242151,3399214.910
2008Kevin Smith, Det.39762861,2628213.217
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.11,1061881,29410210.49
2021Javonte Williams, Den.29033161,2197206.917
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.37952471,04211206.214
2010Jahvid Best, Det.15554871,0426198.220
2009Knowshon Moreno, Den.19472131,1609198.018
2007Marshawn Lynch, Buff.11,1151841,2997196.316
2018Nick Chubb, Cle.29961491,14510194.517
2020D'Andre Swift, Det.252135787810193.816

If we lower the bar a little, half of the last 24 running backs who ranked in the top 30 (but outside the top 20) have been guys selected after the third round.

But I think Pierce is going to play too well to be just a top-30 back. I think he’s going in the top 20 (and maybe even up in the top 10).

OTHERS IN THE TOP 30 (last 20 years)
YearPlayerRdRunRecTotalTDPPRRk
2004Kevin Jones, Det.11,1331801,3136195.321
2019Josh Jacobs, Oak.11,1501661,3167193.621
2013• Zac Stacy, St.L.59731411,1148185.421
2005Cadillac Williams, T.B.11,178811,2596181.921
2020Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.18032971,1005176.022
2005Ronnie Brown, Mia.19072321,1395175.923
2019David Montgomery, Chi.38891851,0747174.424
2011• Roy Helu, Was.46403791,0193168.925
2020J.K. Dobbins, Balt.28051209259168.524
2013• Andre Ellington, Ariz.66523711,0234165.326
2021• Elijah Mitchell, S.F.69631371,1006165.026
2015Duke Johnson, Cle.33795349132164.324
2018• Nyheim Hines, Ind.43144257394160.928
2006Laurence Maroney, N.E.17451949397157.927
2021• Michael Carter, NYJ46393259644156.429
2015T.J. Yeldon, Jac.27402791,0193155.928
2017• Tarik Cohen, Chi.43703537234154.428
2015• Javorius Allen, Balt.45143538673149.729
2016• Devontae Booker, Den.46122658775148.729
2015• Jeremy Langford, Chi.45372798167147.630
2011DeMarco Murray, Dall.38971831,0802146.030
2014• Branden Oliver, S.D.FA5822718534145.326
2014• Andre Williams, NYG47211308517145.127
2014Tre Mason, St.L.37651489135137.330

—Ian Allan