Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Special Sunday edition. Kupp or Jefferson early in a draft? What is a suspended DeAndre Hopkins worth? Why do cool on Deebo? A sneaky sleeper in Kansas City. And more.
Question 1
Assuming both Kupp and Jefferson are available when I pick at #5 in a standard scoring league, which one do I take? I am not enamored with any of the RBs who will be available there -- I have questions about all of them -- and I think the WR-RB combo is going to produce more points. I just have this feeling Jefferson will have a historic season, I know Kupp will regress and I'm somewhat concerned about Stafford's arm.
Richard Weber (Fort Myers, FL)
I faced this same scenario a few weeks ago in the 72-team experts competition being run by Draftsharks.com. I didn’t expect either to be available, but all of a sudden they both were, and with me having 60 seconds to make a decision. I didn’t see much difference between the two. A little worried about Matthew Stafford’s elbow I went with Jefferson. If I could pick again today, I’d still be torn but would probably go with Kupp. I was very impressed last year with his ability to remain remarkably productive in the second half of the season – even after everyone knew he was the guy they would be going to.
While I like Jefferson, he hasn’t yet been an effective receiver around the goal line. Inside the 10, he’s caught only 7 of the 23 passes thrown his way. That includes 4 TDs and a pair of 2-point conversions (which technically aren’t plays, but I am using them here to help paint the picture). Jefferson’s teammate, Adam Thielen, has been a lot more effective in that part of the field, catching 20 of 23 passes in the last two years, including 16 touchdowns and a 2-point conversion. The Vikings have a new offense, and it’s a new year, but I am not at this point confident that Jefferson will be the most productive receiver on his own team inside the 10. I don’t have that worry with Kupp.
Below see the list of all wide receivers with 15 targets inside the 10 in the 2020-21 seasons.
| WIDE RECEIVERS INSIDE THE 10 (last 2 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Com | TD | 2Pt | EZ% |
| • Adam Thielen, Min. | 23 | 20 | 16 | 1 | 74% |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 33 | 27 | 20 | 0 | 61% |
| Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 21 | 16 | 12 | 0 | 57% |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 15 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 47% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 27 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 63% |
| Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 17 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 41% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 21 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 48% |
| Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 21 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 38% |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 24 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 42% |
| Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 44% |
| Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 18 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 39% |
| Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 47% |
| Tim Patrick, Den. | 16 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 44% |
| Christian Kirk, Ari. | 16 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 31% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. | 19 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 32% |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | 15 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 47% |
| Amari Cooper, Dall. | 15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 33% |
| Marvin Jones, Det.-Jac. | 15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 33% |
| DJ Moore, Car. | 16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 38% |
| Zach Pascal, Ind. | 16 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 25% |
| Randall Cobb, G.B. | 19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 32% |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 23 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26% |
| Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 19 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 21% |
| Mike Williams, LAC | 19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21% |
| A.J. Green, Ari. | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16% |
Question 2
If Kelce got hurt what kind of numbers would Fortson put up or is he not the next person up?
Eric Scolnick (Redmond, WA)
Clever idea. He sure looked good against Washington didn’t he? He’s 6-foot-6, with the ability to pull down high passes. I could see him lining him up outside in goal-line situations. If defenses cover him with a modestly sized defensive back, I think Mahomes would be comfortable going to that matchup. Reviewing his 2021 preseason highlights, there are a couple of really impressive catches on high throws. If Mahomes throws 35 touchdowns this year, I could see Fortson catching about 4 of them.
More notably (as you point out) what if soon-to-be-33 Travis Kelce breaks down at some point? I would think Fortson then would become more of a starter-type guy in that offense, maybe putting up top-10 numbers among tight ends. If we’re in one of those mega leagues, where teams are selecting 3 and 4 tight ends, would be worth rostering Fortson.
Question 3
With DeAndre Hopkins suspension, are you drafting him? If so, what are your thoughts on where he should be getting drafted? He has a good points per game projection, but I’m struggling with where I should be pulling the trigger in snake drafts.
Jordan Simons (Kohler, WI)
I don’t think Hopkins is the uber-elite prospect he’s been in the past. They made more of an effort to spread the ball around last year, with Hopkins not factoring as prominently. He caught 8 TDs in 10 games, which is excellent. But he averaged only 4.4 catches for 56 yards in his nine full games. In PPR, he was only the 20th-best receiver last year in terms of per-game production. That’s a big drop off for a player who had finished with top-5 numbers (per game) in each of the four previous seasons. He’s missing the first six games this year. When he returns, I expect he’ll rank somewhere between 15th and 20th among wide receivers for the final two thirds of the season. So in a draft, I think it makes to pick him somewhere in the ran of 35th to 40th at his position.
Question 4
I have the 6th pick in a 12-team league. I always start RB/RB but this year just feels different and I continue to tinker with who I should take in rounds 1 and 2. Appreciate the help
STEVE HUETHER (Rochester, NY)
I don’t subscribe to the RB-RB theory. I’m just looking for good players. At No. 6, that could be a running back, or it could be one of those big three wide receivers. In the second round, it could be a running back or a wide receiver. When checking your logic/expectations, perhaps work under the assumption that whatever position you skip in a round will be addressed in the third. That is, look at expected stats of a RB in round two and a WR in round three, then compare to the option of taking a WR in round two and a running back in round three. (That’s just one combo, of course, it potentially could be best to take receivers in both the second and third rounds.)
Question 5
Why are you lowing on deebo? I have pick 12 and 13 in my draft and I am going to grab one of mixon/swift with the first pick and then it’s up to Kelce, Deebo, or Lamb in my eyes. I need a top receiver but I’m struggling to rank them after the big 3.
Jeffrey Traczewski (Nashville, TN)
Is Deebo even the best wide receiver on his own team? I keep hearing that Brandon Aiyuk is headed for a breakout season. There have been a bunch of wide receivers recently who have landed new contracts after their third season – A.J. Brown, Deebo, Metcalf, McLaurin. Aiyuk is looking to be one of those guys. He finished with better receiving (not rushing, but receiving) numbers than Deebo in the team’s final 11 games last year – more catches, yards and touchdowns. He grumbled some in the offseason about not wanting to be used so much as a running back. And I have concerns about the passing game in general, with them moving to a 22-year-old who didn’t play a lot of college ball. I would not be considering taking Deebo before CeeDee Lamb.
Question 6
I am in a contract league where we have a rookie draft and can sign 3 players to a 3-year contract and 1 player to a 4-year contract, each for $1 on a $200 cap. I have the 1st, 6th, 12th & 22nd picks this year for the rookie draft. We can place our rookies on a "practice squad" status (3 spots) that do not count towards the active roster, except towards salary ($3). I will be taking Breece and activating him immediately and looking for some guidance for the rest. I feel like I am leaning/hoping for Dameon Pierce to be at 6 for me, then after that, a crap-shoot of receivers.
Ryan Logan (Minneapolis, MN)
I like Pierce. I would select him before Hall. I understand that he lasted until the fourth round, and that he’s carried the ball only 11 times in the preseason. But I saw what I saw. The guy is thickly built and physical, and I remember that nice wiggle he put on to go right past the defender at the line of scrimmage in the Saints game. I think he’s a big-time back. Hall, meanwhile, looks like he’s going to be a slow starter. I don’t mean this as a hot take. I just like Pierce more, and I don’t think it pays to be overly patient. If we dial the clock back to 2012, Russell Wilson was tearing things up in the preseason. He was just a third-round pick, while Ryan Tannehill went in the top 10. How long are you going to stick with Tannehill? Similarly, I think Isaiah Likely is a legit NFL tight end. Let’s get him as well. I understand that the Ravens already have Mark Andrews, but I think they’re going to use a bunch of sets with two tight ends.
Question 7
Love your stuff! What trade calculators do you use and/or recommend? If you don't use one, how do you value trades?
Jonathan Horowitz (Great Neck, NY)
When comparing players at the same position, it’s straightforward: I look at my projected points for each player. Assuming those check out, I make the trade unless I can think of a reason not to. If the players come from different position, I measure them relative to a baseline player. Consider, for example, what running back, wide receiver or tight end you think you would be able to select in the 10th round of a draft. Then look at which player gives you the most production beyond that leve.
Question 8
is there any data on how very-good (or good?) players performed the year after (or when they returned from?) tearing an ACL? i can't think of many specific cases, and often actual numbers seem to work better than my memory anyway.
Cliff Neville (Somerset, TX)
I had a running back file that I was maintain, but it’s a little out of date now. It includes three who went over 1,300 yards the year after an ACL surgery. 2002 Jamal Lewis (1,327), 2012 Adrian Peterson (2,097) and 2012 Jamaal Charles (1,509). And four others going over 1,000: 1985 Curt Warner, 2000 Jamal Anderson, 2006 Deuce McAllister and 1994 Terry Allen. But also plenty of misses, including 1990 Ickey Woods, 2000 Terrell Davis, 2002 Edgerrin James, 2006 Domanick Williams, 2008 Deuce McAllister, 2012 Rashard Mendenhall and 2016 Jamaal Charles.
Question 9
Doing a league again for the first time in years and am looking forward to it. They have a unique set of rules. 10 team ppr. Roster is 1 qb , 2rb, 2wr, 1te, and 2wr/te spots. Would this cause the position scarcity to even out between Rb and wr? How would it change draft strategy?
Robert Taylor (Omaha, NE)
With teams starting 4 wide receivers versus only 2 running backs, I think that’s a leveler. It’s going to push teams to select wide receivers earlier (especially with the PPR scoring). I would probably go into that draft looking to come out with 4 or 5 good pass catchers – guys who are going to catch 90-plus balls. I would not be opposed to thinking of the second running back spot as kind of the least important of those six RB-WR spots. I would think you’ll be able to get somebody like Nyheim Hines to plug into that spot, knowing that during the long season there will be many running back injuries that elevate later-round backups into notable roles.
Question 10
Would it be crazy in a 12 team PPR league were RBs go early to take Dameon Pierce with the 29th pick in the draft?
Tom Clark (Suffern, NY)
Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, trying to define obscenity in a case in the ‘60s, said, “I know it when I see it.” I think running backs are the same way. I realize that Pierce carried the ball only 11 times in the preseason, but he sure looks like a legit back to me. Any draft I’m going into about now, it’s with the consideration of possibly (perhaps probably) picking him. But trouble is, there are plenty of others on his trail. I just finished an auction, and Pierce left that one with the 19th-highest contract among running backs. That was before the San Francisco game. I don’t think he’s getting out of the top 20 among running backs. Not sure, though, if you can get him into the top 30 overall in a PPR draft, with the value of receivers who catch 100-plus passes. But maybe.
Question 11
I pick 10th. I have Jamarr Chase in the 8th round, Justin Jefferson in the 3rd round and Jonathan Taylor In the 2nd round. I can only keep two.
RON BEST (Church Point, LA)
Chase is definitely your first keeper. (You really shouldn’t even have included him in the question.) The issue is whether to keep Jefferson at the cost of the 34th pick overall (or maybe 30th pick if it’s a 10-team league) or keep Taylor at the cost of the 15th pick (or 11th pick if a 10-team league). If you go strictly off numbers, the answer is probably Jefferson. But a strong case could be made of filling one of the running back spots with what appears to be the top player on the board.
Question 12
I’m in a 12 team two keeper PPR league. Which of the two options would you prefer: Option 1 – Chubb, Adams & Dameon Pierce ? Or option 2: Adams, Mark Andrews, and either Dameon Pierce or S Diggs?
Tom Clark (Suffern, NY)
Adams is in both options. I’m not sure why he’s being mentioned. As well as Pierce is playing, I'm mulling whether I would take him before Chubb in a keeper startup. With it being PPR, I like Diggs more than both of them in the grand scheme of things. Andrews is the No. 2 tight end on my board – a guy who should be selected in early third round.
Question 13
I’ve been a subscriber for over 10 years and your product has been a big difference maker. I have a question related to the overall impact of adding scoring for first downs. Our league has 14 teams, $100 auction draft budget, PPR scoring, 1 pt for every 8 yards. League is thinking to add scoring of 1 pt for each first down. How do you suggest I use the custom tool and its results to account for this?
Alan Brodecki (Katy, TX)
Below see the list of all players last year who caught at least 70 passes. Looks like on average, players averaged a first down for every 1.7 receptions, or a first down for every 20 receiving yards. I don’t see a huge variation for guys. That is, there aren’t guys who never get first downs, and there aren’t guys who always get first downs. So I think if we just operate under the assumption of everyone averaging about 1.7 catches per first down or one first down for every 20 receiving yards, that will work. You can then fold the first downs into either catches or yards. As things stand, you’ve got your settings at 1 point for every 8 yards. Change that to 1.4 points for every 8 yards (which now including both yards and first downs). Or if you want to to put them in with the catches, you can switch from 1 point per reception to 1.55 points per reception. Those numbers aren’t exact, but I think they’ll be plenty good enough to maintain the integrity of your draft board.
| FIRST DOWNS AND CATCHES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Rec | Yds | 1st Ds | Rec/1st | Yds/1st |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | 145 | 1,947 | 89 | 1.6 | 21.9 |
| WR | Davante Adams | 123 | 1,553 | 84 | 1.5 | 18.5 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | 111 | 1,239 | 75 | 1.5 | 16.5 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 108 | 1,616 | 75 | 1.4 | 21.5 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 107 | 1,361 | 75 | 1.4 | 18.1 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | 107 | 1,161 | 59 | 1.8 | 19.7 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | 106 | 1,138 | 66 | 1.6 | 17.2 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | 104 | 1,015 | 59 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | 103 | 1,225 | 66 | 1.6 | 18.6 |
| WR | Hunter Renfrow | 103 | 1,038 | 51 | 2.0 | 20.4 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | 98 | 1,103 | 55 | 1.8 | 20.1 |
| WR | DJ Moore | 93 | 1,157 | 60 | 1.6 | 19.3 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | 92 | 1,125 | 63 | 1.5 | 17.9 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | 91 | 1,008 | 41 | 2.2 | 24.6 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | 90 | 1,037 | 45 | 2.0 | 23.0 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 90 | 912 | 48 | 1.9 | 19.0 |
| WR | Michael Pittman | 88 | 1,082 | 54 | 1.6 | 20.0 |
| WR | Jakobi Meyers | 83 | 866 | 42 | 2.0 | 20.6 |
| WR | Cole Beasley | 82 | 693 | 34 | 2.4 | 20.4 |
| WR | JaMarr Chase | 81 | 1,455 | 56 | 1.4 | 26.0 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | 81 | 1,055 | 49 | 1.7 | 21.5 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 79 | 1,102 | 54 | 1.5 | 20.4 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | 78 | 808 | 43 | 1.8 | 18.8 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | 77 | 1,405 | 51 | 1.5 | 27.5 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | 77 | 1,053 | 47 | 1.6 | 22.4 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | 77 | 982 | 44 | 1.8 | 22.3 |
| WR | Mike Williams | 76 | 1,146 | 51 | 1.5 | 22.5 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | 75 | 967 | 48 | 1.6 | 20.1 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | 74 | 1,091 | 53 | 1.4 | 20.6 |
| WR | Mike Evans | 74 | 1,035 | 56 | 1.3 | 18.5 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | 74 | 763 | 40 | 1.9 | 19.1 |
| RB | Najee Harris | 74 | 467 | 22 | 3.4 | 21.2 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | 73 | 1,175 | 41 | 1.8 | 28.7 |
| WR | Marvin Jones | 73 | 832 | 42 | 1.7 | 19.8 |
| TE | Mike Gesicki | 73 | 780 | 39 | 1.9 | 20.0 |
| TE | George Kittle | 71 | 910 | 42 | 1.7 | 21.7 |
| RB | Austin Ekeler | 70 | 647 | 31 | 2.3 | 20.9 |