After going through the lull after the Super Bowl, free agency, the draft, minicamps, your own draft or auction, and the preseason, you're finally ready to see your guys in action. It's almost time for week 1, so after several months without fantasy football, it's important to get off on the right foot.
Or is it? Turns out, week 1 counts exactly the same as any other week, and in terms of fantasy value it might be the least important of all. And the fact that your competition will likely treat it as more important than it is can only work in your favor.
After week 1 last year, the Bills looked pretty ordinary, Jonathan Taylor wasn't even on pace for 1,000 yards rushing, Amari Cooper looked like a draft-day steal, and the Packers looked like a disaster. Turned out Cooper caught a quarter of his touchdowns and nearly 20 percent of his total passes in that game, and the Packers wouldn't even lose again until November. And you know about the Bills and Taylor.
I'm cherry-picking stats, of course. Plenty of guys showed in that very first week what they would provide the entire season. But that's the point, really. Some guys were for real, and some weren't. And there wasn't any real way to tell after just 60 minutes of football.
The problem is that it's hard to put that into perspective after waiting so long for the season to start. Small things become big things, molehills become mountains, and a tough week turns into a harbinger for the entire season. Next thing you know, you're second-guessing your roster and at least thinking about benching a clear starter for week 2. You lose all the optimism (and a lot of the fun) of the early part of the season. You might even start looking at the league's collective rejects, also known as the waiver wire, for a solution to your "problems." And that's when things go downhill.
Look, I think all managers have the right to run their teams in any way they want. But you didn't create a game plan, play your hunches, and go with your gut only to question everything after one week. Week 1 doesn't mean more than any other week. In fact, it means less because you have the entire season to make changes if necessary. Unless it's a survivor pool, nobody is ever eliminated in week 1. Whatever happens, there's no need to overreact. And if your opponents are the ones overreacting, so much the better for you.
Now this is the part of the column where people shake their heads and say "But I'm not gonna do that. I might be concerned but I'm not abandoning my team, so this doesn't apply to me." Yes, it applies to you. Nobody abandons their team after one game, but it's that concern, that extra scrutiny, and that silent alarm going off inside your head, that will cause you to make decisions before you would normally make them. An untimely trade, drop, or benching can cost you games, which can cost you a playoff spot. And it can all be traced back to undue concern after the first week of the season.
The opposite is true as well. An amazing week 1 performance can give you too much confidence in your team, preventing you from adding necessary depth, or causing you to keep a guy in the starting lineup way too long after he cools down. In either case, putting too much weight into the first week's performances can cost you later in the year.
I also understand that not reacting quickly enough can also cost you games, so there's a fine line to walk here. But after one week, you're much more likely to overreact and hurt yourself than get punished for not moving fast enough. The games start on Thursday, and I just want you to enjoy the start of the new season without worrying too much about what you're going to learn from it. Go into the week knowing that what you see is not necessarily reflective of where your team is going, and that knowledge should help insulate you from the emotions you'll feel whether you're 1-0 or 0-1 Tuesday morning. I hope it's the former for all your teams. Good luck this week.
have you ever made a big move after week 1 that burned you? How about one that paid off? How patient are you with players who disappoint early? Share your thoughts below.