Putting together the rankings for Week 1, Derek Carr came in a little lower than I was expecting. Nice player, and with good weapons around him, but I’m not confident he’ll put up numbers that move the needle.
That might seem strange, with Carr throwing to three different players who’ve had 100-catch seasons. Davante Adams might be the best receiver in the league, and Darren Waller is a Kelce-type tight end when he’s on. Hunter Renfrow caught 3 TDs against the Chargers last year.
But I wonder if they’re really going to let it rip. Josh McDaniels is running that offense now, and I think he might be more patient in sticking with the run than what the Raiders have had in recent years. When McDaniels was calling the plays for the Patriots last year, they scored as many touchdowns on runs (24) as on passes. New England won a game on the road against the Chargers last year, but Mac Jones wasn’t throwing it much. He passed for 217 yards in that one, with the Patriots instead getting a combined 132 rushing yards out of the trifecta of Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden.
The Chargers should be better defensively this year. That’s a factor. They’ve got some pass-rushing pop, with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, and those guys will be working against a lesser offensive line. I remember Mack being a game wrecker in his debut game with the Bears (at Lambeau).
There’s also the possibility that Carr doesn’t match up well against the Chargers. In each of his last four against them, he’s passed for fewer than 200 yards. That includes one he left with an injury. When the Raiders beat LA in Week 18 last year, it was with Josh Jacobs running for 132 yards and a touchdown (the same total as those three New England backs). When the Raiders lost at this building early last year, the offense couldn’t do much of anything in the first half, before pulling back a couple of scores in a 28-14 loss.
Carr at least has thrown 2 TDs in each of his last three full games against them. But it doesn’t seem like a top-10 kind of matchup. I’m not sure how much they’re getting out of Waller, with him having missed a bunch of practice time in August.
I’m not anti-Carr, but I wouldn’t be looking to use him in Week 1 (unless it’s a Superflex league).
| DEREK CARR VERSUS CHARGERS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Site | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| 2020 | L.A. | W 31-26 | 13 | 23 | 165 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | L.V. | L 27-30 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | L.A. | L 14-28 | 21 | 34 | 196 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2021 | L.V. | W 35-32 | 20 | 36 | 186 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
—Ian Allan