JACKSONVILLE (at Philadelphia)
The Jaguars have pulled off back-to-back upsets (in convincing fashion) of Colts and Chargers teams expected to be in the playoffs. The difficulty level goes way up here, on the road against ...
... an Eagles team that's steamrolled its first three opponents. The last two weeks the Eagles have allowed under 300 total yards and just 7-8 points against credible offenses (Vikings and Commanders). Tough matchup. It's a homecoming for Jaguars coach Doug Pederson, who won a Super Bowl with the Eagles (then was fired three years later). ... Trevor Lawrence is making Doug Pederson look better (and Urban Meyer look worse) by the day. After struggling mightily as a rookie, he's been near-perfect while dismantling the Colts and Chargers (53 of 69 for 497 yards and 5 TDs with no sacks or turnovers in those games). This, though, looks like a trickier matchup, facing a deep and talented Eagles defense that's 2nd in sacks (12) and 6th in interceptions (4), harassing steady veteran Kirk Cousins into one of the worst games of his career (3 interceptions) and then ...
This report is taken from today's Week 4 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 16 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... sacking Carson Wentz 9 times last week. Those offenses each managed just 1 TD against Philadelphia (after scoring 6-8 in their other two games), and it should be noted that Lawrence benefited from the Colts and Chargers operating without Shaquille Leonard and Joey Bosa) for all or most of those games. Jacksonville is better on the line and at the skill positions than it was a year ago, but there will be hiccups; Lawrence took 2 sacks and threw a late interception in the loss at Washington. The Eagles faltered late and let the Lions put up 35 points that week; it's not an impenetrable defense. But it has enough pass rushers and playmakers to make things more difficult for Lawrence. He's mobile, but hasn't run much (8 carries for 22 yards) thus far. ... Jury is out on this run defense. The Eagles got cut up for 181 yards and 3 TDs in their opener, then pretty well shut down the Vikings and Commanders since -- partly because they took big leads in those games. It's a talented front seven, but looks best for pass rush, and we're a little leery of underestimating James Robinson. He's averaging 77 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per attempt, with 4 total TDs. Two of those were against defenses (Colts, Chargers) that have otherwise played the run well this season. He's also caught 6 passes for 33 yards; will lose more of those chances to Travis Etienne (8 for 81), but they're comfortable throwing it to him (understandable, with him averaging 40 catches his first two seasons). Etienne will mix in for some carries, as well; he's gone over 45 yards on the ground in two of three and is up at 4.3 per attempt. But definitely the No. 2 in this backfield, and a lot less likely to get in the end zone. If the Eagles are able to take a big lead (as they have in their other three games), both backs would see fewer carries, but make bigger impacts as a receivers. In any case, looks like an average situation for them. ... The Jaguars were widely criticized for the huge contract they gave Christian Kirk, but he's lived up to it so far. He's caught 6 passes for at least 72 yards in every game, with 3 touchdowns. As well as the Eagles defense has played, opposing wideouts have been putting up solid numbers, even though some of that production has been superfluous, with outcomes no longer in doubt.
| Opposing WRs vs. Philadelphia | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| St. Brown, Det. | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Chark, Det. | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Jefferson, Minn. | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Thielen, Minn. | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Samuel, Wash. | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| McLaurin, Wash. | 6 | 102 | 0 |
A couple of those guys (Jefferson, certainly) finished below expected output, but no compelling reason to shy away from Kirk. Zay Jones is a step back, though he's also been very good in two of three (6 for 65 at Washington, and 10-85-1 at Los Angeles). His quiet game was in the shutout of the Colts, and that's not happening against Philadelphia's top-performing offense. Marvin Jones has been consistent, but at a lower level: 3-4 catches for 33-38 yards in every game, with 1 TD. Potential if this game turns into a wild shootout perhaps, but modest production is more likely. ... Evan Engram caught only 1 pass last week, but caught 11 balls on 12 targets the first two games; looks like he'll typically be involved. And Engram caught a 2-point conversion and had a short touchdown catch overturned last week. He is familiar with this opponent, having caught 28 passes in his previous six games against them (with the Giants) for 247 yards and 1 TDs. Different offense, but he should be involved in the passing game. ... Riley Patterson is averaging over 9 kicking points, with just 1 miss so far. But probably best to look elsewhere this week, considering the Eagles are the only team not to even face a field goal attempt yet this season. That won't last, of course, but there are better bets for a couple of field goal tries this week. ... The Jaguars Defense has been all over opponents thus far, with a league-high 8 takeaways (6 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries) and a respectable 7 sacks. But matchups have helped (Wentz, Ryan and an injury-compromised Justin Herbert who lost his left tackle early on). Jalen Hurts has been playing very well, throwing just 1 interception, although he will get caught holding the ball at times (3 sacks even in one-sided wins each of the last two weeks). Average to slightly below-average situation. Jamal Agnew has 6 career return touchdowns, so give Jacksonville a boost in that regard.