JACKSONVILLE (at Kansas City)
The offense has been respectable (just 18th in scoring, but 8th in yards), and better than that if you do nothing more than remove an inexplicable dud against the Texans. In its other eight games, Jacksonville has ...
... scored 2 TDs four times and 3-4 TDs four times, averaging slightly more than 24 points. Kansas City's defense, meanwhile, is allowing an average of nearly 25 points -- at least 20 in every game. So 2-3 TDs looks like correct forecast. The Jaguars will still probably lose by 7-10 points, but their offense should be fine. ... At the start of the year it seemed he'd be a third-down or committee back, but Travis Etienne is a workhorse right now. In his last three he's averaged 22 carries for 126 rushing yards, with ...
This report is taken from today's Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... 4 touchdowns. He averaged just 9 carries his first six games, and about half his production was in the passing game (50 rushing and 24 receiving yards in those contests). He's caught just 6 balls for 28 yards in his most recent three. That receiving work should be much more important here, with Kansas City averaging over 30 points per game. Jacksonville is allowing an average of under 20, but the best offense it faced (Philadelphia) scored 29, with 4 TDs, which is in line with what Kansas City should finish with. Kansas City isn't really stopping anyone on the ground; just 102 yards per game, which ranks 5th, but that's skewed by a blowout win in Tampa Bay when the Bucs didn't even try to run the ball. This defense is allowing 4.4 yards per attempt, which is an ordinary figure, and has allowed an average of 138 rushing yards in its last four, with 3 TDs. Jacksonville should patiently stick with the run while it's a game, and Etienne will be involved as a receiver if his team falls behind. JaMycal Hasty is just a change of pace, averaging only 4 touches and 9 yards the last three games. ... Trevor Lawrence is harder to put into a lineup with confidence. You might think he'd finish with strong numbers if Kansas City (favored by 9.5) takes a big lead, but Lawrence has thrown nearly half (5) of his 11 touchdowns this season in easy wins over the Colts and Chargers. He's passed for more than 235 yards just four times, and in just one of his last four. They're emphasizing the run, including around the goal line, when possible. But Lawrence himself has run in 3 touchdowns, helping his outlook (he's averaging 25 rushing yards in his last five games). So maybe 240 passing yards and 20 more as a runner. Kansas City had also allowed at least 2 TD passes in every game until facing Malik Willis last week, so a good chance Lawrence makes it up to 2 TDs. Looks like an above-average option for Week 10. ... Christian Kirk also looks solid. He's the clear No. 1 wideout, and Kansas City hasn't done anything special against those players thus far. (Tennessee didn't complete any passes to wide receivers last week, but we're not giving this defense any credit for that.)
| No. 1 WRs versus Kansas City | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| Brown, Ariz. | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Williams, LAC | 8 | 113 | 1 |
| Pittman, Ind. | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Evans, T.B. | 8 | 103 | 2 |
| Adams, L.V. | 3 | 124 | 2 |
| Diggs, Buf. | 10 | 148 | 1 |
| Samuel, S.F. | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jeudy, Den. | 6 | 63 | 1 |
Some elite players in there -- better than Kirk -- but no reason he can't finish with very good numbers. Zay Jones is a step back, serviceable at best most weeks. Six times he's caught 3-5 passes; he's averaging 44 yards, with 1 TD. Unlikely he's much above those kind of numbers, but his odds of scoring go up against this opponent. Until facing the Titans, Kansas City had allowed 10 touchdowns to wide receivers in seven games -- 2 TDs to the position in four of those. Marvin Jones is similar to Zay, but with a lower floor. He's averaging 39 yards, also with 1 TD. He caught 5 passes last week, but had been shut out entirely in two of his previous four. ... Evan Engram had been on a nice little run, which made last week's no-show against the Raiders surprising. Coming in he'd caught 4-6 balls for an average of 58 yards in four straight. But now just a single catch in three other games. Kansas City has allowed 5 TDs to the position, but 3 were to top-level options (Ertz, Knox and Kittle). Call it an average situation. ... Riley Patterson comes off a 9-point game, which was his first with more than 6 since Week 3. Jacksonville has been playing from behind a lot, reducing the opportunities for field goals. Unlikely that changes at Kansas City, which has allowed 12 field goals and just under 7 kicking points per game. ... The Jaguars Defense has a healthy 8 interceptions, but that's the extent of its positive fantasy impact. It's recovered only 3 fumbles, and has only 16 sacks. Patrick Mahomes is similar, taking 16 sacks and throwing 6 interceptions in 8 contests. So he's not as clean as in some previous seasons, making it only a slightly below-average matchup these days (unless points allowed are factored in, with Kansas City the league's top-scoring offense). Jamal Agnew had a good kick return last week, looking like the guy who's been one of the league's best returners in the past.