Around the NFL

November 11, 2022

Josh Allen

Case Keenum looks likely to start for Bills

It’s becoming more apparent that Josh Allen won’t play this week. They haven’t ruled him out yet, but he hasn’t practiced at all. It should be instead Case Keenum at quarterback.

Keenum has played for a bunch of a different teams and coaches. He helped the Vikings reach a conference championship game. But the offense will look dramatically different with him on the field.

Keenum doesn’t have the same size or running ability. He also doesn’t have the same kind of arm strength. He’s not going to be firing the rocket balls downfield. I would expect to see more short passes, more traditional running, and probably less of the passing game running through Stefon Diggs. I think Keenum will spread it around more.

Players like Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie might catch more passes with Keenum at quarterback than they have been with Allen.

And Devin Singletary, I’m thinking, becomes a much more valuable part of the offense. I expect he’ll get more carries than usual, particularly at the goal line.

I have looked through some of Keenum’s stats. In the preseason, he completed 35 of 49 passes for 324 yards and a touchdown. He completed 71 percent of his passes in those games, but also threw 3 interceptions.

Keenum in the last five seasons has started 40 games, winning half of them. He completed 64 percent of his passes in those games, averaging 231 yards, with 52 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. He doesn’t run much (he’s averaged 7 rushing yards in those games, with 3 TDs).

In the last five years, the 10th-best quarterbacks from those seasons have averaged 23.8 fantasy points per game. Keenum in his last 40 starts has produced more than 23.8 in nine of his games. (I’ve got those games in bold.)

For those thinking about Minnesota’s defense, I don’t think Keenum is a gold mine. If you set his last 40 games next to Allen’s last 40, I see fewer sacks (72), interceptions (28) and lost fumbles (7). Not that he’s better than Allen, but he’s been more careful – I think he’ll be more a game manager on Sunday.

CASE KEENUM AS A STARTER (since 2017)
Year	a	Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Rushing	Pts
2017	Min.	at Pitt.	L 9-26	20	37	167	0	0	0-0-0	8.4
2017	Min.	T.B.	W 34-17	25	33	369	3	0	6-18-0	32.2
2017	Min.	Det.	L 7-14	16	30	219	0	0	0-0-0	11.0
2017	Min.	G.B.	W 23-10	24	38	239	1	1	2-15-0	17.5
2017	Min.	Bal.	W 24-16	20	31	188	0	1	1-9-0	10.3
2017	Min.	at Cle.	W 33-16	27	43	288	2	1	0-0-0	22.4
2017	Min.	at Was.	W 38-30	21	29	304	4	2	3--1-0	31.1
2017	Min.	LAR	W 24-7	27	38	280	1	0	3-20-0	20.0
2017	Min.	at Det.	W 30-23	21	30	282	2	0	7-20-1	30.1
2017	Min.	at Atl.	W 14-9	25	30	227	2	0	4--1-0	19.3
2017	Min.	at Car.	L 24-31	27	44	280	2	2	5-40-0	26.0
2017	Min.	Cin.	W 34-7	20	23	236	2	0	1-20-0	21.8
2017	Min.	at G.B.	W 16-0	14	25	139	1	0	4--2-0	10.8
2017	Min.	Chi.	W 23-10	21	29	189	1	0	3-0-0	13.5
2018	Den.	Sea.	W 27-24	25	39	329	3	3	0-0-0	28.4
2018	Den.	Oak.	W 20-19	19	35	222	0	1	3-16-1	18.7
2018	Den.	at Bal.	L 14-27	22	34	192	0	1	0-0-0	9.6
2018	Den.	K.C.	L 23-27	21	33	245	0	1	0-0-0	12.3
2018	Den.	at NYJ	L 16-34	35	51	377	2	1	0-0-0	26.8
2018	Den.	LAR	L 20-23	25	41	322	2	1	1-6-0	24.7
2018	Den.	at Ari.	W 45-10	14	21	161	1	1	4-4-0	12.5
2018	Den.	at K.C.	L 23-30	23	34	262	2	1	1-9-0	22.0
2018	Den.	Hou.	L 17-19	26	42	290	1	0	0-0-0	18.5
2018	Den.	at LAC	W 23-22	19	32	205	0	0	0-0-0	10.3
2018	Den.	Pitt.	W 24-17	15	28	197	2	0	3--3-0	17.6
2018	Den.	at Cin.	W 24-10	12	21	151	1	0	2-9-0	12.5
2018	Den.	at S.F.	L 14-20	24	42	186	1	0	4-24-0	15.7
2018	Den.	Cle.	L 16-17	31	48	257	0	2	2-1-1	19.0
2018	Den.	at Oak.	L 14-27	23	37	202	2	2	3-19-0	20.0
2018	Den.	LAC	L 9-23	31	48	292	1	1	3-8-0	19.4
2019	Was.	at Phi.	L 27-32	30	44	380	3	0	0-0-0	31.0
2019	Was.	Dal.	L 21-31	26	37	221	2	0	1--1-0	19.0
2019	Was.	Chi.	L 15-31	30	43	332	2	3	2-3-0	24.9
2019	Was.	at NYG	L 3-24	6	11	37	0	1	0-0-0	1.9
2019	Was.	at Mia.	W 17-16	13	25	166	2	0	4-10-0	17.3
2019	Was.	S.F.	L 0-9	9	12	77	0	0	0-0-0	3.9
2019	Was.	at Min.	L 9-19	12	16	130	0	0	0-0-0	6.5
2019	Was.	at Dal.	L 16-47	18	37	206	1	1	0-0-0	14.3
2021	Cle.	Den.	W 17-14	21	33	199	1	0	4-7-0	14.7
2021	Cle.	Cin.	W 21-16	17	24	176	2	1	5-15-0	18.3

—Ian Allan

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