MIAMI (vs. Houston)
The Dolphins have had a pass-dominated offense. They rank 2nd in passing, but only five teams are averaging fewer rushing yards. But they'll likely take on a different personality here, given how Houston plays defense. ...
... The Texans rank a distant last in run defense -- a possibility to become the first defense in 44 years to allow over 3,000 rushing yards -- but have been a middle-of-the-pack defense against the pass. So while the Dolphins could probably dice up this opponent through the air, it's more likely they'll run it a lot more than they usually do. Miami played another defense that's struggled against the run its last game (Cleveland) and ran for a season-high 195 yards, with 2 TD runs. Whether it's by run or pass, Miami should put up plenty of points. Its offense has scored at least 4 TDs three weeks in a row. ... Jeff Wilson oddly looks like a top-10 kind of back. He's only been with the team for two games, but it seems like they like him more than Raheem Mostert. Wilson played a little bit more than Mostert at Chicago, and he was on the field for over twice as many plays ...
This report is taken from today's Week 12 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... against Cleveland. Two games in, he's averaging 5 touches more per game, with almost twice as many yards. Wilson in his two with Miami has run for 170 yards and a touchdown, with another 45 yards and a touchdown on 5 catches. Mostert in those games has run for 91 yards and 2 TDs, with 4 catches for 22 yards. It makes sense to rank them both way higher than usual, given Houston's historic troubles against the run. Houston has allowed a player to run for more than 140 yards in half of its games. Five times the Texans have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns, and five times they've allowed over 160 rushing yards. The Dolphins haven't run it much this year or particularly well, but there have been a couple of flashes that indicate they might really get it going this week. They ran for 195 and 2 TDs last week against the Browns, consistently ripping off chunks of yards. And they ran it similarly in their final preseason game, with almost all of their running backs averaging over 6 yards per carry. This sure looks like a run game. ... The matchup isn't as juicy for Tua Tagovailoa. If the Dolphins are piling up big rushing numbers, that will make it less likely the passing game will thrive. The Texans have been a lot better against the pass (including allow fewer touchdowns passing than rushing). But Tagovailoa is playing well enough that he's tough to sit down. The Dolphins in each of their past three games have played against bottom-5 run defenses, yet passed for 300-plus yards and 3 TDs in each of those games. They're carving it up pretty good right now. Tagovailoa got knocked out the Bengals game in the second quarter; in his other seven games, he's averaged 308 passing yards, with 18 TDs. So even with that soft run defense, he still looks like a very good choice for 280-plus yards and a couple of touchdowns. ... With a porous run defense on tap, it makes sense to project Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle lower than usual, but both are having elite, difference-making seasons. Heading into the bye, they were ranking 1st and 4th in the entire league in receiving yards, averaging 115 and 88 yards. Hill has caught 30 more passes, while Waddle holds a 6-4 edge in touchdowns. It would be an unusual fantasy team that would have the luxury of ever sitting one down. ... The Dolphins signed Cedrick Wilson to free agent contract including $12.7 million in guaranteed money. Before the trade for Tyreek Hill, Wilson was supposed to be a starter. Instead, he's not even their third guy -- beaten out by Trent Sherfield. Sherfield has averaged 40 yards in his last four games, with one touchdown. ... Mike Gesicki has remarkable hands. Get him in the right offense, and he'd be one of the top-half dozen tight ends in the league. But he doesn't seem to really hit with what the Dolphins want to do. He's not much of a blocker, and the team is more interested in getting the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Gesicki had a pair of 7-target games back in Weeks 6-7, when it looked like they might start using him more, but that's not happening. More commonly, he's on the field for about half of their plays. In his eight other games, he's caught 15 passes for 173 yards, with 2 TDs -- that's what he is. ... Jason Sanders hasn't been a great scorer. With the Dolphins ripping through defenses, the tendency has been to score touchdowns rather than field goals. That's helped hold Sanders to a below-average 6.6 points per game. The Texans don't seem like the kind of opponent who'll come up with a bunch of red-zone stops. ... It makes sense to rank the Dolphins Defense higher than usual, with the bonus of working against the lowly Texans. But Miami hasn't been able to get its defense dialed in thus far, with just 20 sacks and 7 takeaways in 10 games. The Dolphins don't have a notable kick returner.