I like the look of Joe Burrow this week. He’s on top of his game right now, and the opponent looks pretty much ideal. Kansas City has a great offense, but that defense has been pretty leaky all along.
Burrow played about the best game of his career against Kansas City late last year, passing for 446 yards, with 4 TDs, in a 34-31 win in this same building. He wasn’t as prolific in the playoffs, but got out of Arrowhead with a 27-24 win, with 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes is also playing in this game, and I think that’s a plus, creating more of an urgency for both teams to put up points.
But mostly, I like the look of Kansas City’s defense. It’s struggled against the pass all year. Kansas City ranks 23rd in pass defense, and that’s despite playing two games and quarterbacks who aren’t up to code. Malik Willis (in his second start as a pro) completed 5 of 16 for 80 yards, while Bryce Perkins (in his first start) threw for only 100 yards.
If we look at the other nine quarterbacks who’ve started against Kansas City, every one of them threw at least 2 TDs. That group of nine averaged 283 passing yards, with 21 TDs versus only 3 interceptions.
Expectations, I think, should be high for Burrow.
|QUARTERBACKS AGAINST KANSAS CITY|
|Murray, Ariz.||L 21-44||22||34||193||2||0||99.3|
|Herbert, LAC||L 24-27||33||48||334||3||1||100.5|
|Ryan, Ind.||W 20-17||27||37||222||2||0||105.9|
|Brady, T.B.||L 31-41||39||52||385||3||0||114.7|
|Carr, L.V.||L 29-30||19||30||241||2||0||110.6|
|Allen, Buff.||W 24-20||27||40||329||3||0||117.6|
|Garoppolo, S.F.||L 23-44||25||37||303||2||1||99.3|
|• Willis, Ten.||L 17-20||5||16||80||0||0||49.0|
|Lawrence, K.C.||L 17-27||29||40||259||2||0||106.1|
|Herbert, LAC||L 27-30||23||30||280||2||1||113.2|
|• Perkins, LAR||L 10-26||13||23||100||1||2||45.6|