The Falcons are moving Desmond Ridder into the starting lineup, and I think that puts the Saints in play as a possible streaming defense. Rookie quarterbacks are more prone to slip up in key situations, resulting in sacks, fumbles and interceptions.
I’m not saying the Falcons shouldn’t play Ridder. I think the move is long overdue. He may prove to be an upgrade over Marcus Mariota. But Mariota is a veteran who knows the value of avoiding mistakes. He tends to play with a safe, game manager style – seemingly more interested in avoiding the key mistakes than challenging defenses.
With Ridder in there, I’m expecting there will be more willingness to drive the ball downfield (with some of those throws resulting in completions Mariota wouldn’t have made, but others turning into interceptions). In the preseason, Ridder showed some willingness to take chances, completing 31 of 56 for 431 yards and 3 TDs, but with 2 interceptions (just 2 sacks in those games).
In these kind of situations, I always like to pull the numbers of others in the same situation. For this one, I see that in the last five years, there have been 29 other rookie quarterbacks debut. Combined, they’ve thrown 25 interceptions, including 4 that were returned for touchdowns (in the chart, the Pick Six quarterbacks are tagged with black dots). Only five of those 29 quarterbacks threw multiple interceptions, which is fewer than I would have guessed.
As a group, they took 88 sacks in 29 games (just over 3 per). Just over half took at least 3 sacks, and just over two thirds took 2 sacks.
Only one of the 29 quarterbacks made it through his debut with no sacks or interceptions: Jalen Hurts.
The Saints Defense has been a disappointment so far. It has an above-average 34 sacks, but with a league-low 9 takeaways. Against a rookie quarterback, however, I think they’re a consideration for possible use in Week 15.
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, FIRST START (since 2018) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| 2018 | •Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 21 | 41 | 295 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 15 | 27 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | •Sam Darnold, NYJ | 16 | 21 | 198 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 18 | 33 | 245 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 13 | 19 | 150 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 29 | 54 | 308 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2019 | Will Grier, Car. | 27 | 44 | 224 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 2019 | •Ryan Finley, Cin. | 16 | 30 | 167 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Drew Lock, Den. | 18 | 28 | 134 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew II, Jac. | 23 | 33 | 213 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 23 | 36 | 336 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 15 | 22 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 23 | 36 | 193 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2020 | Ben DiNucci, Dall. | 21 | 40 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2020 | Jake Luton, Jac. | 26 | 38 | 304 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 22 | 33 | 311 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 12 | 22 | 93 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | Jalen Hurts, Phi. | 17 | 30 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 6 | 20 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 19 | 28 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 28 | 51 | 332 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2021 | •Ian Book, N.O. | 12 | 20 | 135 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 29 | 39 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 20 | 37 | 258 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 15 | 29 | 192 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2022 | Skylar Thompson, Mia. | 7 | 13 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | Bailey Zappe, N.E. | 17 | 21 | 188 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 34 | 52 | 327 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2022 | Malik Willis, Ten. | 6 | 10 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan