I don’t know that we’ll see Tua Tagovailoa again this season. He’s been ruled out for Sunday, and it would seem risky to put him back on the field again in Week 18.

Tagovailoa has suffered three head injuries this year. That includes two documented concussions and the Buffalo game in Week 3, where he was staggering around in a daze but the team continues to insist no concussion occurred.

They’ll go with Teddy Bridgewater for now, and I don’t think the wheels fall off with him at the helm. Bridgewater came off the bench against the Vikings and passed for 329 yards and 2 TDs. In two and half quarters at Cincinnati, Bridgewater passed for 193 yards and a touchdown. With this New England defense not being as good as it’s been in the past, I would think Bridgewater’s floor is about 250 yards and a touchdown.

Note that Tyreek Hill this year has actually been better when Bridgewater has been quarterback. He caught 12 passes for 177 yards in that game against Minnesota, and he caught 10 passes for 160 against the Bengals. Jaylen Waddle caught 6 passes for 129 yards against the Vikings. I don’t think anybody should be shying away from those receivers because Tagovailoa isn’t playing.

I don’t think Bridgewater is quite as good, though. I think Tagovailoa is a little bit more accurate, and I think he’s a little quicker at deciding where to go with the ball. Bridgewater took 5 sacks in that Vikings game, while Tagovailoa has taken only 21 sacks all year. Bridgewater also threw 3 interceptions in those games (his interception percent is well over twice as high as Tua’s). For this Sunday’s game, the quarterback switch makes New England’s defense a more desirable option.

The oddity with Tagovailoa is that while he has the weakest arm of any starting quarterback in the league, he’s been the best at connecting on long touchdowns. He’s thrown 8 touchdown passes of 40-plus yards – more than Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes combined. I guess that’s coming from some combination of the design of the offense and the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. (And maybe Tagovailoa’s limited arm is kind of a bonus, with defenses underestimating the likelihood of him throwing deep.)

Regardless. I’m in for Hill and Waddle this week. And if you’re looking for a QB on the waiver wire, Bridgewater is probably the best available option.

TOUCHDOWN PASS OVER 40 YARDS
TeamOppResultPassing comboYds
BuffaloPitt.W 38-3Josh Allen to Gabriel Davis98
MiamiG.B.L 20-26Tua Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle84
Atlantaat Cin.L 17-35Marcus Mariota to Damiere Byrd75
BaltimoreMia.L 38-42Lamar Jackson to Rashod Bateman75
CarolinaCle.L 24-26Baker Mayfield to Robbie Anderson75
LA RamsDall.L 10-22Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp75
Miamiat S.F.L 17-33Tua Tagovailoa to Trent Sherfield75
WashingtonTen.L 17-21Carson Wentz to Dyami Brown75
LA Ramsat T.B.L 13-16Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp69
Dallasat Min.W 40-3Dak Prescott to Tony Pollard68
New OrleansAtl.W 21-18Taysom Hill to Rashid Shaheed68
CarolinaN.O.W 22-14Baker Mayfield to Laviska Shenault67
Denverat Sea.L 16-17Russell Wilson to Jerry Jeudy67
Miamiat Buff.L 29-32Tua Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle67
Denverat Ten.L 10-17Russell Wilson to Jalen Virgil66
DenverK.C.L 28-34Russell Wilson to Marlon Mack66
NY Jetsat Cle.W 31-30Joe Flacco to Corey Davis66
NY Giantsat Ten.W 21-20Daniel Jones to Sterling Shepard65
MinnesotaInd.W 39-36Kirk Cousins to Dalvin Cook64
Green Bayat Phil.L 33-40Jordan Love to Christian Watson63
TennesseeDen.W 17-10Ryan Tannehill to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine63
BuffaloPitt.W 38-3Josh Allen to Gabriel Davis62
Carolinaat Atl.L 34-37P.J. Walker to DJ Moore62
LA Ramsat N.O.L 20-27Matthew Stafford to Tutu Atwell62
Cincinnatiat N.O.W 30-26Joe Burrow to JaMarr Chase60
CincinnatiAtl.W 35-17Joe Burrow to Tyler Boyd60
Miamiat Balt.W 42-38Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill60
Miamiat LACL 17-23Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill60
CincinnatiMia.W 27-15Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins59
JacksonvilleDall.W 40-34Trevor Lawrence to Zay Jones59
Green BayDall.W 31-28Aaron Rodgers to Christian Watson58
Las Vegasat K.C.L 29-30Derek Carr to Davante Adams58
San FranciscoLARW 24-9Jimmy Garoppolo to Deebo Samuel57
Cincinnatiat NYJW 27-12Joe Burrow to Tyler Boyd56
Kansas Cityat Den.W 34-28Patrick Mahomes to Jerick McKinnon56
Baltimoreat NYJW 24-9Lamar Jackson to Rashod Bateman55
NY GiantsHou.W 24-16Daniel Jones to Darius Slayton54
NY JetsChi.W 31-10Mike White to Garrett Wilson54
San Franciscoat Sea.W 21-13Brock Purdy to George Kittle54
Buffaloat LARW 31-10Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs53
New Orleansat Ari.L 34-42Andy Dalton to Rashid Shaheed53
New OrleansLARW 27-20Andy Dalton to Chris Olave53
PhiladelphiaMin.W 24-7Jalen Hurts to Quez Watkins53
ChicagoS.F.W 19-10Justin Fields to Dante Pettis51
Detroitat NYJW 20-17Jared Goff to Brock Wright51
ChicagoDet.L 30-31Justin Fields to Cole Kmet50
LA ChargersK.C.L 27-30Justin Herbert to Josh Palmer50
Seattleat N.O.L 32-39Geno Smith to DK Metcalf50
WashingtonMin.L 17-20Taylor Heinicke to Curtis Samuel49
WashingtonJac.W 28-22Carson Wentz to Terry McLaurin49
DetroitMin.W 34-23Jared Goff to DJ Chark48
Las Vegasat K.C.L 29-30Derek Carr to Davante Adams48
Las VegasInd.L 20-25Derek Carr to Davante Adams48
Miamiat Balt.W 42-38Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill48
New EnglandBuff.L 10-24Mac Jones to Marcus Jones48
New EnglandCin.L 18-22Mac Jones to Jakobi Meyers48
AtlantaCar.W 37-34Marcus Mariota to Damiere Byrd47
BuffaloTen.W 41-7Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs46
CincinnatiCle.W 23-10Joe Burrow to Trenton Irwin45
Kansas Cityat S.F.W 44-23Patrick Mahomes to JuJu Smith-Schuster45
Las VegasLACW 27-20Derek Carr to Davante Adams45
Miamiat S.F.L 17-33Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill45
New Englandat Pitt.W 17-14Mac Jones to Nelson Agholor44
Kansas CityBuff.L 20-24Patrick Mahomes to JuJu Smith-Schuster42
MiamiN.E.W 20-7Tua Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle42
Cincinnatiat Cle.L 13-32Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins41
CincinnatiAtl.W 35-17Joe Burrow to JaMarr Chase41
DetroitMin.W 34-23Jared Goff to Jameson Williams41
Kansas CityLACW 27-24Patrick Mahomes to Justin Watson41
New OrleansBalt.L 13-27Andy Dalton to Juwan Johnson41
Philadelphiaat NYGW 48-22Jalen Hurts to DeVonta Smith41
ChicagoWas.L 7-12Justin Fields to Dante Pettis40
NY JetsDet.L 17-20Zach Wilson to C.J. Uzomah40
PhiladelphiaTen.W 35-10Jalen Hurts to A.J. Brown40
Seattleat N.O.L 32-39Geno Smith to Tyler Lockett40

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

—Ian Allan