I think we at least like to believe that fantasy football is mostly about knowledge and skill, and that's important -- some are just better at it than others. But wins and losses in the playoffs often come down to luck, and not facing the guys who blow up in Week 16 and 17; the Mike Evans, Davante Adams and Christian McCaffreys of the world. Especially Mike Evans.
Cardinals at Falcons: Sometimes you'll see inexperienced quarterbacks lean on their tight end. So a breakout game on benches everywhere for Trey McBride, while Arizona's wideouts didn't do much of anything; Marquise Brown was OK. James Conner led the way. Atlanta's offense was Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Bears at Lions: "Both Lions running backs look like starters," was the Wednesday take, and indeed D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both blew up with big games. But the Bears defense was bad enough on this day that Jared Goff, too, had a big day, with a couple of easy touchdowns to his blocking tight end and a little pass to Swift. Sorry if you benched him. Anyway, big day for the Lions, and although Justin Fields had yet another big day rushing it (should break Lamar Jackson's quarterback rushing record next week), no other Bear did much of anything in the blowout loss. Early touchdown for Cole Kmet, that was the highlight.
Jaguars at Texans: Jaguars win big and have a big day running it, with three different running backs scoring touchdowns. Unfortunately, the feared quiet game for Goff actually did happen for Trevor Lawrence, who didn't have to do much, and didn't, and neither did any of his receivers. Hopefully nobody was starting any Houston players since they all did absolutely nothing.
Broncos at Kansas City: Close game like the earlier meeting ended up, but actually more competitive throughout. Denver's defense caused some problems for Patrick Mahomes at times (his wide receivers did almost nothing, with JuJu Smith-Schuster coming closest on a touchdown chance that was a little off-target). Russell Wilson ran in a couple of touchdowns, frustrating to anyone who's watched this team lose a ton of close games when for whatever reason he wasn't making those plays with his legs. A long completion to Courtland Sutton was wiped out by a pretty questionable offensive interference penalty; rare you see that one called. With that, Sutton would have had a decent game; Jerry Jeudy caught a bunch of short passes. Both Kansas City running backs scored; some streak Jerick McKinnon is on.
Dolphins at Patriots: Dolphins were playing fairly well early, and the Patriots offense looked broken. Miami went up 14-7 in the third quarter, and it kind of looked like that might be enough. But Teddy Bridgewater forced in a bad throw that was intercepted and run back for a touchdown, and also hurt his finger on the play, leading to Miami relying on Skylar Thompson for a touchdown. That went unwell; only Tyreek and Raheem Mostert (scoring, and doing more as a receiver than Jeff Wilson) worked out. New England, it was a full-on Rhamondre and Damien Harris committee, with neither doing much. That should be it for Miami.
Colts at Giants: Some will no doubt recall the celebration of Jeff Saturday after he won his first game as interim coach. Well, it's been all downhill since, with another real disaster at New York/New Jersey yesterday. I think I recommended Michael Pittman to a lot of people on Saturday. Thank your lucky stars it worked out, because everything else connected with Indy's offense went nowhere. Decent day running it, again, for Zack Moss. For the Giants, kind of a disappointing day for the easiest start, Saqoun Barkley, with his quarterback rushing for 91 yards and scoring twice. Darius Slayton did nothing, the other wideouts scored. Congrats to the playoff-bound Giants. Nick Foles suffered a rib injury after a sack, so presumably it will be Sam Ehlinger next week (he threw the touchdown to Pittman, so there's that).
Saints at Eagles: So Gardner Minshew didn't help his stock much in this game. Looks like it will be Jalen Hurts starting next week, with Philadelphia still needing a win to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Philly's offense did nothing for three quarters outside of a long A.J. Brown touchdown, but was still in a reasonable situation to pull out a win until Minshew threw a lazy pass that Marshon Lattimore, in his first game since forever, easily picked off and ran in for the game-clinching touchdown. Not that it will make anyone feel better who started Kenneth Gainwell (there were probably some), but he had a nice touchdown run wiped out by a holding penalty on which the announcer was losing his mind, arguing it was just a good block. I say this every week, I think, but another week where the officials didn't cover themselves in glory.
Panthers at Bucs: Panthers kind of controlled this one at the start, and did it via the pass, with Sam Darnold throwing 3 TDs and DJ Moore having a nice game. But you can't just put Tom Brady down, you also need to put a stake through him and cut off his head, and the Panthers didn't do that, and they also didn't cover Mike Evans very well. Evans on his own probably swung a lot of fantasy matchups yesterday, including I assume the Super Bowl in my dynasty league, by scoring 48.7 points. Bucs win the South, they can rest players next week unless they're OK with being a sub-.500 playoff team, which they might be. Leonard Fournette could have had a nice day, had a late touchdown overturned by replay (Brady then snuck it in).
Browns at Commanders: Can we all agree that Carson Wentz is terrible? Torpedoed the Colts playoff chances last year. Torpedoed Washington's yesterday. I realize that Taylor Heinicke had also lost a couple in a row, but they were still in control of a playoff spot until collapsing in a sea of Wentz interceptions against a weak Cleveland team playing for I guess pride. There's other areas to point the finger (the banged-up secondary playing poorly, giving Amari Cooper a long touchdown on a short throw with one of worst attempts at a sideline tackle you'll ever see, and Ron Rivera mismanaging a few situations the last few weeks). But Wentz was bad enough in this game that I wonder if they'll go back to Heinicke next week. Not that it matters. Much online discussion of the fact that Rivera didn't know Washington was eliminated. I'm in the camp of not thinking it's a big deal. Would he have coached the game differently in any way? But many feel quite passionately that it's shocking and unacceptable.
49ers at Raiders: I guess I owe Jarrett Stidham an apology? He made a couple of big-time throws to Davante Adams in this one, and the Raiders did everything but win. San Francisco's a much better team, but their pass defense kind of got lit up, which might be an issue at some point in the playoffs. Fun game to watch with lots of nice fantasy options. I still don't think Stidham will be the Vegas starter next year, but maybe some will think he's the answer, like Mike White for the Jets. Speaking of...
Jets at Seahawks: New York's offense was a disaster against a pretty marginal defense in this game. To me the big thing watching Mike White was that his internal clock is slow; too often he was still holding the ball when it should have been gone, leading to some turnovers, near-turnovers and bone-crushing hits -- the kind that lead to rib injuries. Zach Wilson doesn't seem to have it, but White definitely isn't the answer either. Nice game for Kenneth Walker, although predictably Seattle's passing game put up modest numbers against the Jets defense, with DK Metcalf especially disappointing. Seattle and Detroit are both in the unfortunate position of needing to win next week and also getting help they probably won't get to make the playoffs.
Vikings at Packers: This one wasn't totally surprising. Things have gone Minnesota's way most of the year, so a game when nothing did isn't a stunner. Start of game; Minnesota blocked a punt and was set up near Green Bay's goal line. But they stumbled, settled for a field goal, and that yielded a kick return touchdown (bad week to be facing the Green Bay's defense) followed by a deflected pass for a Pick Six that put the Packers up 14-3, and the rout was on. That was a negative for those who had any component of the Green Bay passing game, since it didn't have to do much. Christian Watson was healthy enough to play a majority of the snaps, but not effectively (5 targets, 1 catch). Jaire Alexander shut down Justin Jefferson, looks like he wins the whole "fluke" discussion that drew a lot of ink last week. Green Bay will probably beat Detroit next week and be installed as the Team Nobody Wants to Face in the playoffs.
Rams at Chargers: Not a lot of fanfare for this one, but a big game for Austin Ekeler and a good one for Mike Williams, with Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen a little bit less so. Cam Akers had a big game running it, but Malcolm Brown stole one touchdown with an easy score through the middle of the defense, and Akers himself dropped a sideline pass that would have gone for an easy 60-yard touchdown. Painful if you started him considering he otherwise dominated. That's fantasy football. Rams need to beat Seattle next week for Detroit to have a chance at the playoffs. Seems unlikely, but they were close in the earlier meeting.
Steelers at Ravens: One day in some future year these teams will meet up and it will be an old-timey, 80s-era 45-42 shootout. Instead we get another 19-16 game where each team possesses the ball once in the first quarter, going on a pair of 8-minute drives ending in short field goals. Defenses rule, quarterbacks struggle to complete passes more than 3 yards downfield, there are some extracurriculars. But a pretty good game, with another late Kenny Pickett drive for the win. Quiet statistical game for George Pickens, though he did have a couple of big plays, one of which didn't count because he stepped out of bounds before it. Anyway, I'm going to have Pickens on a lot of teams next year. Steelers can make the playoffs if a couple of realistic things go their way next week, although they are relying on the Jets to win, which is less than ideal.
Monday, Monday: Big game between two of the league's best teams, which gained some drama when the Ravens lost -- Cincinnati can wrap up the AFC North with a win. Both teams also in the mix for the No. 1 seed and first-round bye. I'm sure there are some fantasy Super Bowls riding on Chase, Higgins, Diggs, Burrow, Allen and Mixon. At least based on how they've played lately, the Bengals seem like the better team right now. Bengals 27, Bills 24.