A tall order for Jacksonville to win in Kansas City this week. The oddsmakers certainly think so, with Jacksonville 9.5-point underdogs, largest of the week. But I'm not going to be afraid to start Trevor Lawrence in a fantasy league, because it's a choice matchup for him.
Kansas City allowed 33 touchdown passes during the season, 4 more than any other team. It's pretty shocking for a 14-3 team to give up that kind of production; usually the worst teams in terms of allowing touchdown passes are lesser groups, well out of the playoff picture (let alone the No. 1 seed). And this wasn't from a couple of shootouts here and there. Week after week, Kansas City's defense got lit up by opposing quarterbacks.
Especially in terms of touchdowns. Kansas City allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (when including rushing touchdowns) 13 times in 17 games. Three of the four exceptions were far, far below Lawrence: Tennessee's Malik Willis (who completed only 5 passes), the Rams' Bryce Perkins (in his first and only NFL start) and Las Vegas' Jarrett Stidham (in his second). The fourth was Geno Smith, and he's the one guy who I'm ready to give Kansas City any credit for playing well against.
Setting aside Willis, Perkins and the Houston committee of Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel (who also, it should be noted, threw 2 touchdowns against this defense), opposing quarterbacks averaged 267 passing yards, 22 rushing yards and 2.3 touchdowns against Kansas City. Those 14 quarterback games (including Lawrence himself throwing for 259 and 2, with 26 rushing yards) are shown below.
| QUARTERBACKS VERSUS KANSAS CITY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pass | Run | TD |
| Murray, Ariz. | 193 | 29 | 2 |
| Herbert, LAC | 334 | 1 | 3 |
| Ryan, Ind. | 224 | 4 | 2 |
| Brady, T.B. | 385 | 0 | 3 |
| Carr, L.V. | 241 | 3 | 2 |
| Allen, Buf. | 329 | 32 | 3 |
| Garoppolo, S.F. | 303 | 2 | 2 |
| Lawrence, Jac. | 259 | 26 | 2 |
| Herbert, LAC | 280 | 17 | 2 |
| Burrow, Cin. | 286 | 46 | 3 |
| Wilson, Den. | 247 | 57 | 3 |
| Smith, Sea. | 215 | 16 | 1 |
| Wilson, Den. | 222 | 27 | 3 |
| Stidham, L.V. | 219 | 50 | 1 |
| Average | 267 | 22 | 2.3 |
Will be very difficult for Jacksonville to get a win on Saturday, but I like Lawrence's odds of putting up very good numbers in defeat.
--Andy Richardson