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Factoid

Aaron Rodgers

How much does old QB have left?

The 2023 home of Aaron Rodgers is one of the burning questions early in the offseason. Rodgers himself won't be answering it for a few days since he's in a Darkness Retreat or whatever. But media types are speculating, linking him to the Jets and Raiders. Personally I'm wondering how much he has left.

Rodgers turned 39 during the season, so he'll celebrate his 40th birthday during 2023. It's an age that has seen very few top seasons from quarterbacks -- even fewer if you do nothing more than leave out Tom Brady.

Since 1970, there have been 26 times when a quarterback 39 or older has started at least half the season. About 30 percent of those players (8) finished with top-10 fantasy seasons (1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards, 4-point TD passes and 6-point TD runs). Half of them (4) were Tom Brady.

Warren Moon (twice), Brett Favre and Drew Brees are the other guys to do it. In 53 years. In the table, those top-10 seasons are in bold.

OLDER QUARTERBACKS (39-PLUS) STARTING 8-PLUS GAMES
YearPlayerAgeGSCmpAttYdsTDIntPPRRk
2022Tom Brady, T.B.45174907334694259344.610
2022Aaron Rodgers, G.B.391735054236952612308.213
2021Tom Brady, T.B.441748571953164312457.93
2021Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.391639060537402210285.521
2020Tom Brady, T.B.431640161046334012410.37
2020Philip Rivers, Ind.391636954341692411305.720
2020Drew Brees, N.O.41122753902942246254.922
2019Tom Brady, N.E.42163736134057248322.315
2019Drew Brees, N.O.40112813782979274262.625
2018Tom Brady, N.E.411637557043552911350.913
2018Drew Brees, N.O.39153644893992325356.99
2017Tom Brady, N.E.40163855814577328363.73
2016Tom Brady, N.E.39122914323554282298.121
2015Peyton Manning, Den.3991983312249917147.931
2015Matt Hasselbeck, Ind.408156256169095122.035
2010Brett Favre, Min.411321735825091119170.328
2009Brett Favre, Min.40163635314202337343.67
2008Brett Favre, NYJ391634352234722222274.111
2004Vinny Testaverde, Dall.411529749535321720256.416
2001Doug Flutie, S.D.391629452134641518258.417
1998Warren Moon, Sea.42101452581632118128.628
1997Warren Moon, Sea.411431352836782516293.97
1996Warren Moon, Min.408134247161079109.135
1995Warren Moon, Min.391637760642283314351.63
1986Jim Plunkett, Oak.3981332521986149160.022
1974Len Dawson, K.C.3981382351573713109.524

Rodgers himself just missed the top-10 as a 39-year-old, finishing 13th among quarterbacks last year. With better receiving weapons on the right team, perhaps, maybe he can sneak onto it in 2023.

But I'm expecting a short shelf life, and if some team actually gives up multiple first-round picks (as Peter King believes the Packers will be seeking), I think they'll be disappointed. I think he's got a year or two left, tops, and even that's assuming the desire is there (less likely than with Brady). He's a worthwhile addition for a team close to contention right now. Anything else, I'm not sure he'll still be around to be worth the compensation.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index