The Packers worked out a restructured deal Aaron Jones this week. That's nice for him and the Green Bay offense, but it's not great news for those hoping for a breakout 2023 for AJ Dillon. Will be tough for him to put up big numbers with Jones around.
The Packers, like many teams, might be happiest with a two-back system, keeping both players fresh and healthy. Plus if you move on from Jones, and then Dillon gets hurt, you're in trouble at a key position in the offense (especially if the team is transitioning to inexperienced Jordan Love at quarterback).
They also might simply not think that Dillon is capable of a big leap forward. In each of the last two seasons, among running backs that have received as much or more work than he has, he's been good, but not special.
The last two years, there have been a total of 50 running back seasons of at least 180 carries (which Dillon has done both times). In each of those years he's scored 7 touchdowns, and finished in about the same spot at the position in fantasy leagues (PPR scoring). He was the 23rd-best back in 2021 and 27th-best in 2022. A move into the top 10 or 15 isn't going to happen with Jones around, and maybe the team doesn't think he's capable of it (and is thus willing to pay Jones $11 million in 2023 so they don't have to find out).
Those 50 180-carry running back seasons the last two years are shown below, sorted by fantasy points. Dillon (in bold) is probably in line for a similar type of 2023, barring injury to Jones. Good back, but greatness is on hold for at least another year.
180-CARRY RUNNING BACKS, 2021-2022 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 204 | 915 | 107 | 722 | 18 | 378.7 | 1 |
2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 332 | 1811 | 40 | 360 | 20 | 377.1 | 1 |
2022 | Christian McCaffrey, 2TM | 244 | 1139 | 85 | 741 | 13 | 356.7 | 2 |
2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 206 | 911 | 70 | 647 | 20 | 349.8 | 2 |
2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 340 | 1653 | 53 | 400 | 12 | 330.3 | 3 |
2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 349 | 1538 | 33 | 398 | 13 | 308.8 | 4 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 307 | 1200 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 |
2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 292 | 1205 | 42 | 314 | 16 | 289.9 | 4 |
2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 295 | 1312 | 57 | 338 | 10 | 284.0 | 5 |
2022 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 302 | 1525 | 27 | 239 | 13 | 283.4 | 6 |
2021 | James Conner, Ariz. | 202 | 752 | 37 | 375 | 18 | 257.7 | 5 |
2021 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 180 | 812 | 69 | 454 | 10 | 255.6 | 6 |
2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 213 | 1121 | 59 | 395 | 7 | 254.6 | 7 |
2021 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 237 | 1002 | 47 | 287 | 12 | 254.1 | 7 |
2022 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 210 | 1040 | 69 | 421 | 6 | 251.1 | 8 |
2022 | Tony Pollard, Dall. | 193 | 1007 | 39 | 371 | 12 | 248.8 | 9 |
2022 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 264 | 1173 | 39 | 295 | 10 | 245.8 | 10 |
2022 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 210 | 814 | 60 | 441 | 9 | 239.5 | 11 |
2021 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 258 | 1037 | 42 | 294 | 10 | 237.1 | 8 |
2021 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 240 | 898 | 47 | 439 | 9 | 234.7 | 9 |
2021 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 217 | 872 | 54 | 348 | 9 | 230.0 | 12 |
2022 | Jamaal Williams, Det. | 262 | 1066 | 12 | 73 | 17 | 229.9 | 12 |
2022 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 189 | 668 | 73 | 523 | 6 | 228.1 | 13 |
2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 272 | 1034 | 41 | 229 | 10 | 227.5 | 14 |
2022 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 259 | 1269 | 20 | 78 | 11 | 220.7 | 15 |
2022 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 223 | 897 | 57 | 490 | 4 | 219.7 | 16 |
2021 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 228 | 1259 | 20 | 174 | 9 | 217.3 | 13 |
2021 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 202 | 929 | 18 | 132 | 15 | 214.1 | 14 |
2022 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 220 | 1125 | 35 | 316 | 5 | 211.1 | 17 |
2021 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 249 | 1159 | 34 | 224 | 6 | 210.3 | 16 |
2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 203 | 903 | 43 | 316 | 7 | 206.9 | 17 |
2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 228 | 1050 | 27 | 165 | 9 | 202.5 | 18 |
2022 | James Conner, Ari. | 183 | 782 | 46 | 300 | 8 | 202.2 | 19 |
2021 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 203 | 918 | 28 | 213 | 10 | 201.1 | 18 |
2021 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 225 | 849 | 42 | 301 | 7 | 199.0 | 19 |
2021 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 188 | 870 | 40 | 228 | 8 | 197.8 | 20 |
2021 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 219 | 937 | 18 | 154 | 10 | 193.4 | 22 |
2021 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 187 | 803 | 34 | 313 | 7 | 187.6 | 23 |
2022 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 231 | 876 | 17 | 92 | 12 | 185.8 | 22 |
2022 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 201 | 801 | 34 | 316 | 6 | 181.7 | 24 |
2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 220 | 939 | 30 | 165 | 5 | 170.4 | 25 |
2022 | Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 181 | 891 | 31 | 202 | 5 | 170.3 | 26 |
2022 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 186 | 770 | 28 | 206 | 7 | 167.6 | 27 |
2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 207 | 963 | 19 | 137 | 6 | 165.0 | 26 |
2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 210 | 1035 | 16 | 139 | 4 | 159.4 | 30 |
2022 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 192 | 861 | 28 | 143 | 4 | 152.4 | 33 |
2021 | Sony Michel, LAR | 208 | 845 | 21 | 128 | 5 | 148.3 | 31 |
2022 | Cam Akers, LAR | 188 | 786 | 13 | 117 | 7 | 145.3 | 34 |
2022 | D'Onta Foreman, Car. | 203 | 914 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 131.0 | 38 |
2022 | Brian Robinson, Was. | 205 | 797 | 9 | 60 | 3 | 112.7 | 43 |
--Andy Richardson