Jalen Hurts was an effective goal-line runner last year, but the league may change its rules to make him less effective in that part of the field. Specifically, it could outlaw Philadelphia’s rugby scrum short-yardage formation – the so-called “Tush Push”.
“I think the league is going to look at this, and I’d be shocked if they don’t make a change,"’ said Dean Blandino, who formerly served as the league’s VP of officiating. “The NFL wants to showcase the athleticism and skill of our athletes. This is just not a skillful play. … This is just a tactic that is not an aesthetically pleasing play, and I think the competition committee is going to take a look at it.”
Talking on the 33rd Team podcast, Blandino says Sean Payton has told him the Broncos will be using this play extensively next year if the rule isn’t changed. (I find that amusing – Russell Wilson doesn’t have the same size or power to effectively move the pile and probably wouldn’t be excited about being used in that way.
It’s something to keep an eye on. There are definitely some who don’t like the play, but there might not be enough to get the rule changed. Prior to 2006, players were not allowed to assist teammates by pushing them. The rule was altered that season, with only pulling of teammates not allowed.
The short-yardage package seems pretty much unstoppable, but I looked at the numbers, and they were not as overwhelming as I expected. There were seven teams last year, in fact, that converted a higher percentage of their plays when they were looking to pick up 1 yard. The Eagles went 39 of 48 on those plays, which is impressive, but the Cowboys for one went 42 of 47. The Titans and Giants combined to converted 46 of 49 such plays.
My original intention with this article was to trot out the numbers from the last 10 years, showing how great the 2022 Eagles were, but that fizzled out. There have been plenty of teams each year that have finished with higher success rates in short-yardage situations.
In the chart below, you’re looking at totals for key 1-yard plays. I included all running plays from the 1-yard line, as well as third-and-one and fourth-and-one plays. Two-point conversions aren’t officially considered plays, but I included those as well (at least the ones that resulted in runs from the 1-yard line after penalties).
| "AND ONE" RUSHING PLAYS (team) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | "Good" | Att | Pct |
| Tennessee | 25 | 26 | 96.2% |
| NY Giants | 21 | 23 | 91.3% |
| Dallas | 42 | 47 | 89.4% |
| Buffalo | 27 | 32 | 84.4% |
| Atlanta | 21 | 25 | 84.0% |
| LA Rams | 23 | 28 | 82.1% |
| Miami | 18 | 22 | 81.8% |
| Philadelphia | 39 | 48 | 81.3% |
| Washington | 30 | 37 | 81.1% |
| Chicago | 21 | 26 | 80.8% |
| Pittsburgh | 37 | 46 | 80.4% |
| New England | 12 | 15 | 80.0% |
| New Orleans | 27 | 34 | 79.4% |
| LA Chargers | 33 | 42 | 78.6% |
| Denver | 24 | 31 | 77.4% |
| Las Vegas | 17 | 22 | 77.3% |
| Houston | 20 | 26 | 76.9% |
| Arizona | 29 | 38 | 76.3% |
| Baltimore | 29 | 39 | 74.4% |
| Cleveland | 28 | 38 | 73.7% |
| Detroit | 29 | 40 | 72.5% |
| Carolina | 21 | 29 | 72.4% |
| Green Bay | 17 | 24 | 70.8% |
| Seattle | 17 | 24 | 70.8% |
| Cincinnati | 21 | 30 | 70.0% |
| San Francisco | 26 | 38 | 68.4% |
| Tampa Bay | 28 | 41 | 68.3% |
| NY Jets | 15 | 22 | 68.2% |
| Jacksonville | 27 | 40 | 67.5% |
| Indianapolis | 21 | 32 | 65.6% |
| Minnesota | 18 | 28 | 64.3% |
| Kansas City | 12 | 21 | 57.1% |
The short-yardage numbers look more impressive when you look at Jalen Hurts the individual. He went 31 of 34 on these plays. But there were a half-dozen players who converted these plays at a higher rate, including three quarterbacks.
Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry both were successful on all but one of their carries when their teams were looking to pick up 1 yard. Below see the list of everyone with at least 10 attempts.
With or without a rule change, I think Hurts looks like the clear favorite to lead all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns next year.
| "AND ONE" RUSHING (individual) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| E.Elliott, Dall. | 19 | 20 | 95.0% |
| D.Henry, Ten. | 14 | 15 | 93.3% |
| J.Allen, Buff. | 13 | 14 | 92.9% |
| D.Prescott, Dall. | 12 | 13 | 92.3% |
| K.Pickett, Pitt. | 12 | 13 | 92.3% |
| J.Herbert, LAC | 11 | 12 | 91.7% |
| J.Hurts, Phil. | 31 | 34 | 91.2% |
| D.Jones, NYG | 10 | 11 | 90.9% |
| J.Fields, Chi. | 10 | 11 | 90.9% |
| J.Conner, Ariz. | 16 | 18 | 88.9% |
| C.Akers, LAR | 13 | 15 | 86.7% |
| T.Lawrence, Jac. | 13 | 15 | 86.7% |
| D.Pierce, Hou. | 12 | 14 | 85.7% |
| D.Singletary, Buff. | 11 | 13 | 84.6% |
| J.Brissett, Cle. | 15 | 18 | 83.3% |
| T.Allgeier, Atl. | 10 | 12 | 83.3% |
| B.Robinson, Was. | 16 | 20 | 80.0% |
| L.Jackson, Balt. | 8 | 10 | 80.0% |
| J.Burrow, Cin. | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| L.Murray, N.O. | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
| T.Hill, N.O. | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
| T.Pollard, Dall. | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
| J.Mixon, Cin. | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| A.Ekeler, LAC | 12 | 17 | 70.6% |
| J.Jacobs, L.V. | 12 | 17 | 70.6% |
| J.Williams, Det. | 23 | 33 | 69.7% |
| R.White, T.B. | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
| A.Dillon, G.B. | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
| T.Etienne, Jac. | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
| C.McCaffrey, Car.-S.F. | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| J.Taylor, Ind. | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| K.Walker, Sea. | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| N.Chubb, Cle. | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| L.Fournette, T.B. | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| D.Cook, Min. | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
—Ian Allan