The Bears have a big decision to make on Justin Fields. Do they continue to wait for him to develop? Or does it make more sense to trade him, starting over with a new quarterback at the top of the draft?
Fields has elite athletic ability. As a runner, he looks pretty comparable to guys like Cam Newton, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. The Eagles were able to wait for Hurts to develop into a top quarterback, and Fields maybe could be one of those kind of guys.
But at the same time, Fields has been there for two years, and he hasn’t been able to turn the corner yet as a passer. Pretty much not at all.
Pocket awareness and decision making were issues for him at Ohio State (where he was sacked a lot more often than quarterbacks typically chosen in the first round), and that’s continued at the pro level. He’s been sacked on 13 percent of his pass plays, which is dramatically worse than any other rookie quarterback in the last 20 years.
And Fields hasn’t been able to win any games. He’s 5-20 as a starter thus far. In this century, 55 other quarterbacks have started at least 20 games in their first two seasons. They’ve all won a higher percentage of games in their first two seasons than Fields. You would think that if it were going to happen for Fields, we would have seen more progress by this time.
There have been seven other quarterbacks who’ve won less than 30 percent of their games in their first two seasons, and none of them have been able to really get their careers off the ground, including Blaine Gabbert, Davis Mills, Brandon Weeden, David Carr, Blake Bortles, Joey Harrington and Colt McCoy.
There have been some others who’ve won fewer than 40 percent of their games in their first two seasons who’ve been able to progress, including Alex Smith, Geno Smith (much later), Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr and Daniel Jones.
I would think the Bears are looking closely at Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and others, trying to gauge whether they should be dipping back into the quarterback pool.
| 20 STARTS IN FIRST TWO SEASONS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | W-L | Com% | Yds | TD | Int | Sack% |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 22-3 | 64.7 | 5,006 | 34 | 20 | 8.6% |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 19-3 | 63.7 | 4,328 | 42 | 9 | 6.4% |
| Marc Bulger, S.F. | 18-4 | 63.5 | 5,671 | 36 | 28 | 6.2% |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 24-8 | 63.6 | 6,475 | 52 | 19 | 8.8% |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 22-10 | 65.2 | 6,991 | 45 | 17 | 5.7% |
| Andrew Luck, Ind. | 22-10 | 57.0 | 8,196 | 46 | 27 | 5.7% |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 20-10 | 59.7 | 6,356 | 38 | 25 | 3.9% |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 14-8 | 66.4 | 5,864 | 45 | 17 | 10.3% |
| Joe Flacco, Balt. | 20-12 | 61.7 | 6,584 | 35 | 24 | 6.8% |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 18-11 | 61.5 | 7,078 | 49 | 21 | 5.5% |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 13-8 | 66.2 | 4,467 | 27 | 15 | 5.6% |
| Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 19-12 | 54.4 | 5,735 | 29 | 33 | 5.7% |
| Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 17-11 | 64.9 | 6,150 | 28 | 21 | 8.9% |
| Vince Young, Ten. | 17-11 | 57.1 | 4,745 | 21 | 30 | 6.3% |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 19-13 | 60.2 | 7,067 | 47 | 29 | 6.3% |
| Carson Palmer, Cin. | 17-12 | 64.6 | 6,733 | 50 | 30 | 4.5% |
| Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 15-11 | 63.5 | 5,416 | 31 | 19 | 6.7% |
| Kyle Boller, Balt. | 14-11 | 54.4 | 3,819 | 20 | 20 | 7.0% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 15-12 | 56.3 | 5,163 | 30 | 21 | 7.8% |
| Trent Edwards, Buff. | 12-11 | 61.6 | 4,329 | 18 | 18 | 5.2% |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 12-11 | 51.6 | 4,805 | 30 | 26 | 5.2% |
| Josh Freeman, T.B. | 13-12 | 58.8 | 5,306 | 35 | 24 | 5.9% |
| Mac Jones, N.E. | 16-15 | 66.5 | 6,798 | 36 | 24 | 6.0% |
| Jared Goff, LAR | 11-11 | 59.8 | 4,893 | 33 | 14 | 7.0% |
| Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 13-14 | 58.9 | 5,760 | 29 | 26 | 4.9% |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 12-13-1 | 68.2 | 7,299 | 47 | 19 | 8.2% |
| Aaron Brooks, N.O. | 10-11 | 56.5 | 5,346 | 35 | 28 | 8.0% |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 15-17 | 66.2 | 9,350 | 69 | 25 | 4.7% |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 15-17 | 59.6 | 8,132 | 50 | 33 | 5.3% |
| Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 15-17 | 59.4 | 7,207 | 36 | 30 | 8.0% |
| Christian Ponder, Min. | 12-14 | 59.2 | 4,788 | 31 | 25 | 7.4% |
| Robert Griffin, Was. | 12-16 | 62.7 | 6,403 | 36 | 17 | 7.4% |
| Jay Cutler, Den. | 9-12 | 62.6 | 4,498 | 29 | 19 | 6.2% |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | 11-15 | 59.9 | 5,889 | 36 | 28 | 6.9% |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 13-18-1 | 65.8 | 7,693 | 46 | 24 | 6.4% |
| Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 12-17 | 61.5 | 7,552 | 49 | 35 | 6.0% |
| Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 11-16 | 61.6 | 6,244 | 45 | 19 | 6.9% |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 13-19 | 58.9 | 7,920 | 40 | 29 | 6.6% |
| Jason Campbell, Was. | 8-12 | 57.7 | 3,997 | 22 | 17 | 4.3% |
| Alex Smith, S.F. | 9-14 | 56.2 | 3,765 | 17 | 27 | 9.5% |
| Geno Smith, NYJ | 11-18 | 57.5 | 5,571 | 25 | 34 | 8.1% |
| Zach Wilson, NYJ | 8-14 | 55.2 | 4,022 | 15 | 18 | 9.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 12-22 | 62.9 | 7,754 | 37 | 25 | 4.7% |
| Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 7-13 | 62.9 | 5,530 | 37 | 11 | 7.0% |
| Derek Carr, NYJ | 10-22 | 59.6 | 7,257 | 53 | 25 | 4.5% |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 8-18 | 62.2 | 5,970 | 35 | 22 | 8.4% |
| Sam Bradford, S.F. | 8-18 | 57.6 | 5,676 | 24 | 21 | 6.9% |
| Colt McCoy, Cle. | 6-15 | 58.4 | 4,309 | 20 | 20 | 7.4% |
| Joey Harrington, Det. | 8-20 | 53.3 | 5,174 | 29 | 38 | 1.7% |
| Blake Bortles, Jac. | 8-21 | 58.7 | 7,336 | 46 | 35 | 8.9% |
| David Carr, Hou. | 7-20 | 54.1 | 4,605 | 18 | 28 | 11.0% |
| Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 5-15 | 55.9 | 5,116 | 23 | 26 | 6.6% |
| Davis Mills, Hou. | 5-19-1 | 63.6 | 5,782 | 33 | 25 | 6.6% |
| Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 5-19 | 53.8 | 3,876 | 21 | 17 | 8.2% |
| Justin Fields, Chi. | 5-20 | 59.7 | 4,112 | 24 | 21 | 13.4% |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan