Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Elite quarterbacks

Declining production league-wide enhances the best QBs

It wasn’t a good for quarterbacks last year. Passing in general was down. But that decline made the elite players at the position even more valuable.

Production in general was off, with teams averaging only 234 passing yards per game. They averaged 10 more yards the previous season, and over 253 in both the 2019 and 2020 season.

There also weren’t as many touchdown passes. Teams averaged only 23.4 TD last year. They were up at 27.2 and 26.3 the previous two seasons. Defenses seemingly have gotten smarter.

But while production was down in general, there were a few players at the position that were able to buck the trend – Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. They paid off nicely for those who were willing to draft them.

Below see the per-game stats for quarterbacks from the last five years – the best of the 151 quarterbacks who’ve started at least half of a season in any of the last five years. Three of last year’s best quarterbacks (Allen, Mahomes, Hurts) rank in the top 6 (assuming standard scoring), Burrow comes in at 17th. Then there’s a gap, with nobody else ranking in the top 46 before Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Geno Smith show up.

So if you drafted one of those top 4 quarterbacks, you not only got good production, you got more of a statistical cap than had offenses continued to produce as they have in recent seasons.

Many people like to punt the quarterback position until the later rounds, but I don’t think anybody who selected those guys last year was complaining too much about the cost.

TOP 50 QUARTERBACKS (last 5 years)
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPts
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.163193.1317.1331.0
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.152082.4080.4730.9
2022Josh Allen, Buff.162682.1948.4429.8
2020Josh Allen, Buff.162842.3126.5629.5
2020Patrick Mahomes, K.C.153162.5321.1329.2
2022Patrick Mahomes, K.C.173092.4121.2429.0
2022Jalen Hurts, Phil.152471.4751.8728.7
2021Josh Allen, Buff.172592.1245.3528.3
2020Kyler Murray, Ariz.162481.6351.6928.2
2020Aaron Rodgers, G.B.162693.009.1927.5
2020Deshaun Watson, Hou.163012.0628.1927.3
2020Russell Wilson, Sea.162632.5032.1327.2
2021Tom Brady, T.B.173132.535.1226.9
2018Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.163212.136.1926.8
2018Matt Ryan, Atl.163082.198.2526.7
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.163192.0616.0626.7
2021Justin Herbert, LAC172952.2418.1826.6
2022Joe Burrow, Cin.162802.1916.3126.6
2020Justin Herbert, LAC152892.0716.3326.5
2019Ryan Tannehill, Ten.102602.2018.4026.2
2021Patrick Mahomes, K.C.172852.1822.1226.0
2019Deshaun Watson, Hou.152571.7328.5325.9
2019Dak Prescott, Dall.163061.8817.1925.8
2020Lamar Jackson, Balt.151841.7367.4725.8
2020Tom Brady, T.B.162902.500.1925.6
2021Kyler Murray, Ariz.142711.7130.3625.5
2018Jameis Winston, T.B.92941.7829.1125.4
2018Andrew Luck, Ind.162872.449.0025.3
2020Ryan Tannehill, Ten.162392.0617.4424.8
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.162601.6334.3124.8
2021Lamar Jackson, Balt.122401.3364.1724.7
2021Dak Prescott, Dall.162782.319.0624.6
2018Cam Newton, Car.142431.7135.2924.5
2018Jared Goff, LAR162932.007.1324.5
2021Joe Burrow, Cin.162882.137.1324.4
2019Patrick Mahomes, K.C.142881.8616.1424.4
2021Matthew Stafford, LAR172872.413.0024.3
2019Daniel Jones, NYG122512.0023.1724.2
2020Kirk Cousins, Min.162672.1910.0624.1
2019Russell Wilson, Sea.162571.9421.1924.0
2021Jalen Hurts, Phil.152101.0752.6724.0
2019Drew Brees, N.O.112712.450.0923.9
2021Aaron Rodgers, G.B.162572.316.1923.9
2018Drew Brees, N.O.152662.131.2723.7
2019Matt Ryan, Atl.152981.7310.0723.3
2018Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.142301.7130.2123.2
2022Lamar Jackson, Balt.121871.4264.2523.0
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.132712.0810.0023.0
2022Justin Fields, Chi.151491.1376.5323.0
2018Aaron Rodgers, G.B.162781.5617.1322.9

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index