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Desmond Ridder

Is third-rounder a franchise quarterback?

The Falcons have released Marcus Mariota, as expected. That leaves Desmond Ridder alone as the team's prospective 2023 starting quarterback. Ridder started the last four games of the 2022 season for Atlanta, going 2-2. Will he be the answer at quarterback?

Ridder, of course, was one of three passers selected in the third round of last year's draft, along with Malik Willis (Tennessee) and Matt Corral (Carolina). Further free agent moves might leave those players as default starters, with the Titans potentially releasing Ryan Tannehill and Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker both in need of new contracts for the Panthers.

But of the three, it's only Ridder who seems particularly likely to be a Week 1 starter next fall. He'll be beating pretty long odds if he goes on to be a franchise quarterback.

It used to happen for third-rounders a little more often. Joe Montana, famously, was a third round pick, and so was another of my favorite quarterbacks growing up, Dan Fouts. Super Bowl quarterback Ken Anderson and former Packers pro bowler Lynn Dickey, too. But usually good quarterbacks don't slip to that round. In recent years there's Russell Wilson, and not much else.

Table below shows all the top-20 fantasy seasons since 1990 from quarterbacks selected in the third round. Montana has one of best of them, while two other players account for the vast majority of the best seasons: Wilson, and former Giant and Raider Jeff Hostetler.

Otherwise, a whole lot of journeyman quarterbacks who maybe had a good season or two, like Matt Schaub, Chris Chandler and Neil O'Donnell. Not many stars. Ridder, Willis or Corral would be beating the odds to be the next Wilson.

THIRD-ROUND QBS PUTTING UP TOP-20 SEASONS, 1990-PRESENT
YearPlayerCmpAttPassTDIntYdsTDPPRRk
2017Russell Wilson, Sea.339553398334115863415.81
2009Matt Schaub, Hou.39658347702915570362.23
1990Joe Montana, S.F.321520394426161621323.43
2015Russell Wilson, Sea.32948340243485531398.54
2019Russell Wilson, Sea.34151641103153423383.75
1993Jeff Hostetler, Oak.236419324214102025268.35
2020Russell Wilson, Sea.384558421240135132435.96
2014Russell Wilson, Sea.28545234752078496379.46
2010Matt Schaub, Hou.36557443702412280319.38
1998Chris Chandler, Atl.190327315425121212285.09
1996Jeff Hostetler, Oak.242402254823141791243.39
1994Jeff Hostetler, Oak.263455333420161592274.69
2013Russell Wilson, Sea.25740733572695391331.810
2016Russell Wilson, Sea.353546421921112591338.311
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.252393311826104894334.811
2018Russell Wilson, Sea.28042734483573760351.912
1993Neil O'Donnell, Pitt.27048632081471110227.512
1992Chris Chandler, Ariz.245413283215151491222.512
1994Joe Montana, K.C.2994933283169170231.913
1991Hugh Millen, N.E.2464093073918921204.913
1990Jay Schroeder, Oak.1823342849199810226.613
2022Russell Wilson, Den.292483352416112773287.014
1999Brian Griese, Den.261452303214141382233.415
1991Jay Schroeder, Oak.18935725621516760195.715
1990Bubby Brister, Pitt.22338727252014640222.715
2001Brian Griese, Den.275451282723191731261.116
2000Brian Griese, Den.21633626881941021228.616
2013Nick Foles, Phil.20331728912722213296.717
1997Chris Chandler, Atl.20234226922071580230.417
1992Neil O'Donnell, Pitt.185313228313951172.717
1993Joe Montana, K.C.1812982144137640165.618
2022Davis Mills, Hou.292479311817151082248.719
2012Matt Schaub, Hou.35054440082212-90289.919
1999Chris Chandler, Atl.17430723391611571192.719
2021Russell Wilson, Sea.25940031132561832288.020
2002Brian Griese, Den.291436321415151071237.420
1997Neil O'Donnell, NYJ2594602796177361217.420
1994Neil O'Donnell, Pitt.2123702443139801188.220
1993Bubby Brister, Phil.1813091905145390155.220

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index