The running backs performed at the combine yesterday, always an exciting time for fantasy coaches. There are a variety of athletic drills, but people tend to take the most interest in the 40-yard-dash. That's not necessarily a predictor of NFL success, but it can impact where these guys are drafted. Some interesting results this year.
Texas' Bijan Robinson is the top prospect at the position, and he turned in a 4.46 time. He actually seemed to slip at the very beginning of his run, I thought, so maybe he's a little bit faster than that. But regardless, it's a good time, and considering his size (5-11, 215) it looks even better. Some team is going to draft him in the first round, and he will/should be the top pick in nearly every rookie draft this year.
Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs ran a 4.36, and that definitely catches the eye. He's not as big (5-9, 199) as Robinson, and that will give some teams looking for a starter pause, but it's decent size. He averaged 6.1 yards per attempt and also caught 44 passes for one of college's best programs last year. That time is going to help him next month.
The top time for the position was turned in by Texas A&M's Devon Achane; a 4.32. That's the 2nd-best time turned in by any of the running backs who went on to be selected in the first three rounds of the last 10 years worth of drafts. But at 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds, Achane will be viewed as a complementary guy by most teams. The faster time turned in over the past decade was by Pittsburgh third-rounder Dri Archer, and Archer was just 173 pounds and was out of the league in a heartbeat, primarily playing special teams in two seasons with the Steelers. Achane isn't nearly as slight as Archer, but he won't be an early pick even with that speed. One of the other fastest backs yesterday, East Carolina's Keaton Mitchell (4.37), is even smaller than Achane at 5-foot-8 and 179 pounds.
The two other backs to turn in sub-4.5 times yesterday could be Day 2 (round 2-3) picks. Chase Brown (4.43) from Illinois and Deneric Prince (4.41) from Tulsa. Brown has good size (5-10, 209) while Prince is even bigger (6-0, 216). We'll see where they all get drafted, but these are the backs on my radar right now.
Table shows all the running backs drafted in the first three rounds the past 10 years who ran a 4.5 or better at the combine (backs who didn't run, like Najee Harris, are excluded). All the incoming rookies who beat that time yesterday are also included.
| RUNNING BACKS AT 4.5 OR BETTER AT THE COMBINE, 2013-PRESENT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player | School | Ht | Wt | 40 time |
| 2014 | 3 | 97 | Dri Archer | Kent State | 5.08 | 173 | 4.26 |
| 2023 | ? | ? | Devon Achane | Texas A&M | 5.09 | 188 | 4.32 |
| 2023 | ? | ? | Jahmyr Gibbs | Alabama | 5.09 | 199 | 4.36 |
| 2023 | ? | ? | Keaton Mitchell | East Carolina | 5.08 | 179 | 4.37 |
| 2013 | 3 | 96 | Knile Davis | Arkansas | 5.10 | 227 | 4.37 |
| 2022 | 2 | 41 | Kenneth Walker | Michigan State | 5.09 | 211 | 4.38 |
| 2022 | 2 | 36 | Breece Hall | Iowa State | 5.11 | 217 | 4.39 |
| 2020 | 2 | 41 | Jonathan Taylor | Wisconsin | 5.10 | 226 | 4.39 |
| 2020 | 3 | 66 | Antonio Gibson | Memphis | 6.00 | 228 | 4.39 |
| 2018 | 1 | 2 | Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 6.00 | 233 | 4.40 |
| 2023 | ? | ? | Deneric Prince | Tulsa | 6.00 | 216 | 4.41 |
| 2020 | 3 | 93 | Darrynton Evans | Appalachian State | 5.10 | 203 | 4.41 |
| 2014 | 3 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon | Georgia Southern | 5.09 | 209 | 4.41 |
| 2022 | 2 | 63 | James Cook | Georgia | 5.11 | 199 | 4.42 |
| 2023 | ? | ? | Chase Brown | Illinois | 5.10 | 209 | 4.43 |
| 2016 | 3 | 73 | Kenyan Drake | Alabama | 6.01 | 210 | 4.45 |
| 2023 | ? | ? | Bijan Robinson | Texas | 5.11 | 215 | 4.46 |
| 2018 | 1 | 27 | Rashaad Penny | San Diego State | 5.11 | 220 | 4.46 |
| 2023 | ? | ? | Evan Hull | Northwestern | 5.10 | 209 | 4.47 |
| 2020 | 2 | 52 | Cam Akers | Florida State | 5.10 | 217 | 4.47 |
| 2016 | 1 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott | Ohio State | 6.00 | 225 | 4.47 |
| 2022 | 3 | 91 | Rachaad White | Arizona State | 6.00 | 214 | 4.48 |
| 2022 | 3 | 93 | Tyrion Davis-Price | Louisiana State | 6.00 | 211 | 4.48 |
| 2020 | 2 | 35 | D'Andre Swift | Georgia | 5.08 | 212 | 4.48 |
| 2017 | 1 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey | Stanford | 5.11 | 202 | 4.48 |
| 2016 | 3 | 90 | C.J. Prosise | Notre Dame | 6.00 | 220 | 4.48 |
| 2014 | 3 | 69 | Charles Sims | West Virginia | 6.00 | 214 | 4.48 |
| 2019 | 2 | 53 | Miles Sanders | Penn State | 5.11 | 211 | 4.49 |
| 2019 | 3 | 70 | Darrell Henderson | Memphis | 5.08 | 208 | 4.49 |
| 2018 | 2 | 59 | Derrius Guice | Louisiana State | 5.11 | 218 | 4.49 |
| 2017 | 2 | 41 | Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 5.11 | 213 | 4.49 |
| 2014 | 2 | 54 | Bishop Sankey | Washington | 5.09 | 209 | 4.49 |
| 2015 | 3 | 86 | David Johnson | Northern Iowa | 6.01 | 224 | 4.50 |
| 2014 | 3 | 75 | Tre Mason | Auburn | 5.08 | 207 | 4.50 |
At a glance, it looks like a little more than half of these players have gone on to be significant pros, including a handful of elite guys (McCaffrey, Elliott, Barkley, Cook and Taylor). Early returns good on a couple of top guys from last year (Hall and Walker). I don't think fast 40s are everything (some busts here too), but it seems to help draft position at a minimum; that in turn helps opportunity, too.
--Andy Richardson