Around the NFL

March 08, 2023

Lamar Jackson

Will he have a suitor?

Lamar Jackson is available. Kind of. The Ravens hit him with the non-exclusive franchise tag yesterday, which means he can negotiate with other teams and perhaps sign a deal that will get him away from Baltimore. But that won't be easy.

All it will take, apparently, is a fully guaranteed contract similar to the one Cleveland gave Deshaun Watson and two first-round picks. And the hope that Baltimore doesn't proceed to match the deal anyway, retaining Jackson. Some teams (because they don't have a first-round pick this year) don't even have the option of pursuing him. Others have franchise quarterbacks already. And a whole lot of possible landing spots came out yesterday saying they wouldn't be suitors for the 2019 MVP.

Those immediate rejections prompted much teeth-gnashing about collusion, which I won't rule out but think is overblown. Is it really far-fetched that most/all teams came to a decision on their own that the contract the Browns gave Watson is a bad thing? Nobody else has been getting a fully-guaranteed deal lately. Maybe Jackson ultimately gets one, but it's not something teams want to do. Throw in the two first-round picks, and the fact that the Ravens might very well match any offer, and it's not hard to see teams taking a pass. While eyebrows were raised about how quickly teams said no, it's not like Jackson being available via the franchise tag was unexpected -- teams could well have had internal discussions about him a week or two ago.

And finally, there's the reality that Jackson hasn't built on his incredible 2019 season. There have been injury issues: two years in a row, he's missed 4 or 5 games. Baltimore has done a poor job of surrounding him with receiving talent, no question. But with the other quarterbacks who have or will receive big contracts, they've strung together 2-3 years of excellence. Yes, including Watson.

Table shows the top 40 fantasy seasons from the four years Jackson has been a full-time starter. His 2019 was 5th-best, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. But he shows up in the top 40 from those four years only one other time. (The last two years he's finished 15th and 17th at the position.) Quarterbacks with as many or more appearances in the top 40 over that time period constitute a larger group than you might expect: Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Prescott, Watson, Hurts, Burrow, Cousins, Murray, Ryan, Brady and Wilson. Five of those guys have done it three times.

TOP 40 QUARTERBACK FANTASY SEASONS, 2019-2022
Year	Player	G	Pass	TD	Int	Run	TD	FF
2020	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	16	4299	48	5	149	3	440.3
2021	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	16	4115	37	4	101	3	382.5
2019	Dak Prescott, Dall.	16	4902	30	11	277	3	412.8
2021	Dak Prescott, Dall.	16	4449	37	10	146	1	397.1
2020	Derek Carr, L.V.	16	4103	27	9	140	3	347.2
2020	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	16	4823	33	7	444	3	437.6
2019	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	15	3852	26	12	413	7	389.5
2022	Geno Smith, Sea.	17	4282	30	11	366	1	376.7
2022	Jalen Hurts, Phil.	15	3701	22	6	760	13	431.1
2021	Jalen Hurts, Phil.	15	3144	16	9	784	10	365.6
2019	Jameis Winston, T.B.	16	5109	33	30	250	1	426.5
2022	Jared Goff, Det.	17	4438	29	7	73	0	350.7
2022	Joe Burrow, Cin.	16	4475	35	12	257	5	425.5
2021	Joe Burrow, Cin.	16	4611	34	14	118	2	392.4
2021	Josh Allen, Buff.	17	4407	36	15	763	6	482.7
2022	Josh Allen, Buff.	16	4283	35	14	762	7	476.4
2020	Josh Allen, Buff.	16	4544	37	10	421	8	473.5
2021	Justin Herbert, LAC	17	5014	38	15	302	3	462.9
2020	Justin Herbert, LAC	15	4336	31	10	234	5	398.2
2022	Justin Herbert, LAC	17	4739	25	10	147	0	354.7
2020	Kirk Cousins, Min.	16	4265	35	13	156	1	384.9
2022	Kirk Cousins, Min.	17	4547	29	14	97	2	371.1
2021	Kirk Cousins, Min.	16	4221	33	7	115	1	360.6
2020	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	16	3971	26	12	819	11	450.5
2021	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	14	3787	24	10	423	5	358.4
2019	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	16	3722	20	12	544	4	350.5
2019	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	15	3127	36	6	1206	7	463.0
2020	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	15	2757	26	9	1005	7	386.4
2020	Matt Ryan, Atl.	16	4581	26	11	92	2	356.3
2019	Matt Ryan, Atl.	15	4466	26	14	147	1	350.0
2021	Matthew Stafford, LAR	17	4886	41	17	43	0	416.6
2022	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	17	5250	41	12	358	4	493.9
2021	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	17	4839	37	13	381	2	444.1
2020	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	15	4740	38	6	308	2	437.8
2020	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	4212	40	13	513	2	435.9
2019	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	4110	31	5	342	3	383.7
2020	Ryan Tannehill, Ten.	16	3819	33	7	266	7	398.6
2021	Tom Brady, T.B.	17	5316	43	12	81	2	457.9
2020	Tom Brady, T.B.	16	4633	40	12	6	3	410.3
2022	Trevor Lawrence, Jac.	17	4113	25	8	291	5	370.8

That being said, I do think Jackson should -- probably will -- have an interested team. The Raiders, perhaps, will be in on him. The Commanders (though they said yesterday they weren't) really should be. Whether his last two years have been as good as they should have been or not, he's a franchise quarterback, and those guys are hard to come by.

But the reality is that multiple first-round picks are a steep price. And Baltimore's ability to match an offer is a downer; you go to all the work of negotiating a deal that both sides are happy with and don't get the player anyway, plus you have to mend fences with your current starter, if you have one. And it's a lot of guaranteed money for a guy who's been hurt the last two seasons.

It’s possible the Ravens have quietly made it known that they intend to match any offer that Jackson gets. No inside info here, I’m just speculating.

At the end of the day, I suspect he'll be back in Baltimore.

--Andy Richardson

Lamar Jackson

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