Lamar Jackson is available. Kind of. The Ravens hit him with the non-exclusive franchise tag yesterday, which means he can negotiate with other teams and perhaps sign a deal that will get him away from Baltimore. But that won't be easy.
All it will take, apparently, is a fully guaranteed contract similar to the one Cleveland gave Deshaun Watson and two first-round picks. And the hope that Baltimore doesn't proceed to match the deal anyway, retaining Jackson. Some teams (because they don't have a first-round pick this year) don't even have the option of pursuing him. Others have franchise quarterbacks already. And a whole lot of possible landing spots came out yesterday saying they wouldn't be suitors for the 2019 MVP.
Those immediate rejections prompted much teeth-gnashing about collusion, which I won't rule out but think is overblown. Is it really far-fetched that most/all teams came to a decision on their own that the contract the Browns gave Watson is a bad thing? Nobody else has been getting a fully-guaranteed deal lately. Maybe Jackson ultimately gets one, but it's not something teams want to do. Throw in the two first-round picks, and the fact that the Ravens might very well match any offer, and it's not hard to see teams taking a pass. While eyebrows were raised about how quickly teams said no, it's not like Jackson being available via the franchise tag was unexpected -- teams could well have had internal discussions about him a week or two ago.
And finally, there's the reality that Jackson hasn't built on his incredible 2019 season. There have been injury issues: two years in a row, he's missed 4 or 5 games. Baltimore has done a poor job of surrounding him with receiving talent, no question. But with the other quarterbacks who have or will receive big contracts, they've strung together 2-3 years of excellence. Yes, including Watson.
Table shows the top 40 fantasy seasons from the four years Jackson has been a full-time starter. His 2019 was 5th-best, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. But he shows up in the top 40 from those four years only one other time. (The last two years he's finished 15th and 17th at the position.) Quarterbacks with as many or more appearances in the top 40 over that time period constitute a larger group than you might expect: Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Prescott, Watson, Hurts, Burrow, Cousins, Murray, Ryan, Brady and Wilson. Five of those guys have done it three times.
| TOP 40 QUARTERBACK FANTASY SEASONS, 2019-2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | FF |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4299 | 48 | 5 | 149 | 3 | 440.3 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4115 | 37 | 4 | 101 | 3 | 382.5 |
| 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4902 | 30 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 |
| 2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4449 | 37 | 10 | 146 | 1 | 397.1 |
| 2020 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 16 | 4103 | 27 | 9 | 140 | 3 | 347.2 |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4823 | 33 | 7 | 444 | 3 | 437.6 |
| 2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 3852 | 26 | 12 | 413 | 7 | 389.5 |
| 2022 | Geno Smith, Sea. | 17 | 4282 | 30 | 11 | 366 | 1 | 376.7 |
| 2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 3701 | 22 | 6 | 760 | 13 | 431.1 |
| 2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 3144 | 16 | 9 | 784 | 10 | 365.6 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 5109 | 33 | 30 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 |
| 2022 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4438 | 29 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 350.7 |
| 2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4475 | 35 | 12 | 257 | 5 | 425.5 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4611 | 34 | 14 | 118 | 2 | 392.4 |
| 2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 4407 | 36 | 15 | 763 | 6 | 482.7 |
| 2022 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4283 | 35 | 14 | 762 | 7 | 476.4 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4544 | 37 | 10 | 421 | 8 | 473.5 |
| 2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 17 | 5014 | 38 | 15 | 302 | 3 | 462.9 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 |
| 2022 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 17 | 4739 | 25 | 10 | 147 | 0 | 354.7 |
| 2020 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 4265 | 35 | 13 | 156 | 1 | 384.9 |
| 2022 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 17 | 4547 | 29 | 14 | 97 | 2 | 371.1 |
| 2021 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 4221 | 33 | 7 | 115 | 1 | 360.6 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3971 | 26 | 12 | 819 | 11 | 450.5 |
| 2021 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 14 | 3787 | 24 | 10 | 423 | 5 | 358.4 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 3127 | 36 | 6 | 1206 | 7 | 463.0 |
| 2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 2757 | 26 | 9 | 1005 | 7 | 386.4 |
| 2020 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 4581 | 26 | 11 | 92 | 2 | 356.3 |
| 2019 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 15 | 4466 | 26 | 14 | 147 | 1 | 350.0 |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 17 | 4886 | 41 | 17 | 43 | 0 | 416.6 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 17 | 5250 | 41 | 12 | 358 | 4 | 493.9 |
| 2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 17 | 4839 | 37 | 13 | 381 | 2 | 444.1 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 15 | 4740 | 38 | 6 | 308 | 2 | 437.8 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4212 | 40 | 13 | 513 | 2 | 435.9 |
| 2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4110 | 31 | 5 | 342 | 3 | 383.7 |
| 2020 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 16 | 3819 | 33 | 7 | 266 | 7 | 398.6 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 17 | 5316 | 43 | 12 | 81 | 2 | 457.9 |
| 2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 16 | 4633 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 410.3 |
| 2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 4113 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 5 | 370.8 |
That being said, I do think Jackson should -- probably will -- have an interested team. The Raiders, perhaps, will be in on him. The Commanders (though they said yesterday they weren't) really should be. Whether his last two years have been as good as they should have been or not, he's a franchise quarterback, and those guys are hard to come by.
But the reality is that multiple first-round picks are a steep price. And Baltimore's ability to match an offer is a downer; you go to all the work of negotiating a deal that both sides are happy with and don't get the player anyway, plus you have to mend fences with your current starter, if you have one. And it's a lot of guaranteed money for a guy who's been hurt the last two seasons.
It’s possible the Ravens have quietly made it known that they intend to match any offer that Jackson gets. No inside info here, I’m just speculating.
At the end of the day, I suspect he'll be back in Baltimore.
--Andy Richardson