Big trade in the NFL yesterday, with the Panthers trading away their best offensive player and picks #9, #61 (acquired by trading away their other best offensive player, Christian McCaffrey), next year's No. 1 (which should be a really good pick) and the following year's No. 2 for the No. 1 overall pick in next month's draft. Lots to unpack here, so let's go.
First, the Carolina side. They desperately need a quarterback, and few deals have shown more desperation than this one. But there are some recent examples of teams trading a lot of draft capital to move up to the top of the draft for quarterbacks, and the bad news for Panthers fans is none look fantastic in retrospect:
2021: San Francisco gives up two future first-rounders and pick 12 to move up to No. 3 for Trey Lance. Lance backed up Jimmy Garoppolo, when healthy, as a rookie, then got hurt early on last year.
2018: Jets trade three second-round picks and pick 6 to move up to No. 3 for Sam Darnold. Enough said.
2016: Rams trade two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two third-round picks to the Titans to move up to No. 1 overall for Jared Goff. The Rams did get to the Super Bowl with Goff after the 2018 season.
2016: Eagles trade a first-round pick, a second-round pick, a third-round pick and a fourth-round pick (and a couple of players, but whatever) to move up from 13 to No. 2 overall to draft Carson Wentz. Wentz was having an MVP season in 2017 prior to getting hurt, and the Eagles won the Super Bowl that year, albeit with Nick Foles in the playoffs. That trade can be viewed as successful, even though Wentz's career has been an ugly trainwreck ever since.
Bottom line, the trade will be viewed as a success for Carolina if the quarterback they select is a franchise guy. Of the four recent examples above, Lance is an unknown, Darnold has flopped, and Goff and Wentz did help get teams to Super Bowls, though the latter's career has flamed out and Goff has been a mixed bag.
Interestingly, there's no consensus on which rookie quarterback the Panthers traded up for. Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud are the favorites, but some apparently believe Florida's Anthony Richardson is a possibility. I'm in the Stroud camp, personally, since he's not tiny like Young and not a project like Richardson. The Panthers themselves say there are multiple quarterbacks they like and could potentially trade back, but I'm calling BS on that latter part. They'll have a favorite, and won't risk losing that player by dropping a spot.
Houston will also be drafting a quarterback at No. 2, and although Arizona probably won't be at 3, they could now trade that pick, either to a team that wants to leapfrog the Colts at No. 4, or the Colts themselves. So watch for another trade involving the Cardinals in the next week or two.
As for Chicago (I've made it there eventually), the Bears will have a shot at a great player at No. 9, another good one in the second round, and Carolina's 1st next year, which will probably be a top 5 or 10 pick even if they successfully select a franchise quarterback (who will have very little to throw to). Of course, they need to hope Justin Fields takes another step up as a franchise guy himself, but that looks a little more promising today. He'll be throwing to a receiving corps that looks a lot better with DJ Moore atop it. (Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet look better as supporting guys than go-tos.)
Since 2019, Moore has caught 309 passes for 4,413 yards and 19 touchdowns. Little light on touchdowns, famously, but only 11 wide receivers have caught more passes and only six have more yards. Have any of those had as dire a quarterback situation as Moore? He's been catching passes the last four years primarily from Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and P.J. Walker.
| WIDE RECEIVERS, 2019-2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD |
| Davante Adams | 59 | 421 | 5440 | 48 |
| Stefon Diggs | 64 | 401 | 5319 | 35 |
| Tyreek Hill | 61 | 375 | 5085 | 38 |
| Cooper Kupp | 57 | 406 | 4894 | 35 |
| Justin Jefferson | 50 | 324 | 4825 | 25 |
| A.J. Brown | 60 | 273 | 4491 | 35 |
| DJ Moore | 64 | 309 | 4413 | 19 |
| Amari Cooper | 64 | 317 | 4328 | 30 |
| Mike Evans | 60 | 288 | 4322 | 41 |
| Tyler Lockett | 64 | 339 | 4319 | 35 |
| Chris Godwin | 55 | 353 | 4299 | 24 |
| Terry McLaurin | 63 | 299 | 4281 | 21 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 66 | 306 | 4218 | 35 |
| Keenan Allen | 56 | 376 | 4081 | 24 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 50 | 325 | 3861 | 24 |
| Mike Williams | 59 | 236 | 3798 | 20 |
| Diontae Johnson | 64 | 340 | 3646 | 20 |
| Tyler Boyd | 63 | 294 | 3477 | 19 |
| Brandin Cooks | 58 | 270 | 3469 | 17 |
| Christian Kirk | 61 | 277 | 3420 | 22 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 49 | 260 | 3396 | 20 |
| Deebo Samuel | 51 | 223 | 3230 | 12 |
| Robert Woods | 57 | 278 | 3153 | 14 |
| Allen Robinson | 54 | 271 | 3146 | 17 |
| Marvin Jones | 62 | 257 | 3118 | 25 |
| Marquise Brown | 58 | 262 | 3070 | 24 |
| DeVante Parker | 53 | 206 | 3049 | 18 |
| Tee Higgins | 46 | 215 | 3028 | 19 |
For Moore, this is perhaps a lateral move, but I’ll call it a slight upgrade. Chicago has a slightly more established quarterback, albeit still a question mark. With Mooney coming off injury, Moore should be a go-to receiver. Without question.
Needless to say, I think this deal is a big win for the Bears. According to the pick value calculator, they'd have come out slightly ahead on this deal even if Moore weren't included.
At the end of the day, the Bears need Justin Fields to be a franchise guy, and the Panthers need the quarterback they'll select to be a franchise guy. If those things happen, it'll be a win-win deal.
But if Fields flops, the Bears will be well-positioned to replace him. Carolina? It's the kind of move that will either set the franchise up, or back, for years to come.
--Andy Richardson