It may take a week or a month (maybe more), but it seems like Aaron Rodgers is headed to the Jets. This further tilts the quarterbacking landscape in favor of the AFC.
I think it’s the most lopsided it’s ever been.
There are currently eight starting quarterbacks in the AFC who have had seasons with at least 40 touchdowns (passing/running combined). There is one on the NFC side: Matthew Stafford (and there are questions about whether he can physically hold up).
In the NFC, the best current quarterbacks seem to be Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Then you’re getting down to an injured Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Derek Carr and Geno Smith. Maybe Jordan Love and Justin Fields can emerge as viable quarterbacks, but overall, it looks pretty bleak.
On the AFC side, you’ve got arguably the four most coveted quarterbacks in the league – in some order, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Guys like Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, and now Rodgers don’t even show up in the top tier of the conference.
The current AFC quarterbacks have seven MVP awards; the NFC has none.
Below see a list of the presumed starters, along with the number of touchdowns they produced in their best season as a pro. The AFC group adds up to 506 touchdowns, while the NFC is down at 383.
For this project, I wasn’t sure who to list for some teams. Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy, for example, would start in Week 1 under ideal circumstances, but I don’t think they’ll be healthy. And with Panthers, Falcons, Commanders, Colts and Texans, I wasn’t sure whether to list youngsters or their modest veteran backups (Dalton, Heinicke, Brissett, Minshew, Mills). But whatever – you get the idea.
BEST TOUCHDOWN SEASONS, NFC QUARTERBACKS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Pass | Run | Total | Current team |
Matthew Stafford | 41 | 0 | 41 | LA Rams |
Dak Prescott | 37 | 1 | 38 | Dallas |
Kyler Murray (inj.) | 26 | 11 | 37 | Arizona |
Kirk Cousins | 35 | 1 | 36 | Minnesota |
Jalen Hurts | 22 | 13 | 35 | Philadelphia |
Jared Goff | 32 | 3 | 35 | Detroit |
Derek Carr | 32 | 0 | 32 | New Orleans |
Geno Smith | 30 | 1 | 31 | Seattle |
Baker Mayfield | 27 | 0 | 27 | Tampa Bay |
Daniel Jones | 24 | 2 | 26 | NY Giants |
Justin Fields | 17 | 8 | 25 | Chicago |
Brock Purdy (inj.) | 13 | 1 | 14 | San Francisco |
Desmond Ridder | 2 | 0 | 2 | Atlanta |
Sam Howell | 1 | 1 | 2 | Washington |
Jordan Love | 2 | 0 | 2 | Green Bay |
1st pick of draft | 0 | 0 | 0 | Carolina |
BEST TOUCHDOWN SEASONS, AFC QUARTERBACKS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Pass | Run | Total | Current team |
Patrick Mahomes | 50 | 2 | 52 | Kansas City |
Aaron Rodgers | 48 | 3 | 51 | NY Jets |
Josh Allen | 37 | 9 | 46 | Buffalo |
Lamar Jackson | 36 | 7 | 43 | Baltimore |
Russell Wilson | 40 | 2 | 42 | Denver |
Justin Herbert | 38 | 3 | 41 | LA Chargers |
Joe Burrow | 35 | 5 | 40 | Cincinnati |
Ryan Tannehill | 33 | 7 | 40 | Tennessee |
Deshaun Watson | 33 | 3 | 36 | Cleveland |
Trevor Lawrence | 25 | 5 | 30 | Jacksonville |
Jimmy Garoppolo | 27 | 1 | 28 | Las Vegas |
Tua Tagovailoa | 25 | 0 | 25 | Miami |
Mac Jones | 22 | 0 | 22 | New England |
Kenny Pickett | 7 | 3 | 10 | Pittsburgh |
2nd pick of draft | 0 | 0 | 0 | Houston |
4th pick of draft | 0 | 0 | 0 | Indianapolis |
Alternately, we could instead look at the best 30 quarterback seasons of the last five years by quarterbacks who are going to be starting this year. I’ve got 70 percent of them being guys who are now in the AFC (in the chart, the NFC quarterbacks are tagged with black dots).
TOP 30 QUARTERBACKS SEASONS (last 5 years) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yds | TD | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 5,097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 1 |
2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 5,250 | 41 | 358 | 4 | 493.9 | 1 |
2021 | Josh Allen | 4,407 | 36 | 763 | 6 | 482.7 | 1 |
2022 | Josh Allen | 4,283 | 35 | 762 | 7 | 476.4 | 2 |
2020 | Josh Allen | 4,544 | 37 | 421 | 8 | 473.5 | 1 |
2019 | Lamar Jackson | 3,127 | 36 | 1,206 | 7 | 463.0 | 1 |
2021 | Justin Herbert | 5,014 | 38 | 302 | 3 | 462.9 | 2 |
2020 | • Kyler Murray | 3,971 | 26 | 819 | 11 | 450.5 | 2 |
2021 | Patrick Mahomes | 4,839 | 37 | 381 | 2 | 444.1 | 4 |
2020 | Aaron Rodgers | 4,299 | 48 | 149 | 3 | 440.3 | 3 |
2020 | Patrick Mahomes | 4,740 | 38 | 308 | 2 | 437.8 | 4 |
2020 | Deshaun Watson | 4,823 | 33 | 444 | 3 | 437.6 | 5 |
2020 | Russell Wilson | 4,212 | 40 | 513 | 2 | 435.9 | 6 |
2022 | • Jalen Hurts | 3,701 | 22 | 760 | 13 | 431.1 | 3 |
2022 | Joe Burrow | 4,475 | 35 | 257 | 5 | 425.5 | 4 |
2021 | • Matthew Stafford | 4,886 | 41 | 43 | 0 | 416.6 | 5 |
2019 | • Dak Prescott | 4,902 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 | 3 |
2020 | Ryan Tannehill | 3,819 | 33 | 266 | 7 | 398.6 | 8 |
2020 | Justin Herbert | 4,336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 | 9 |
2018 | Deshaun Watson | 4,165 | 26 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 | 5 |
2018 | • Jared Goff | 4,688 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 397.2 | 6 |
2021 | • Dak Prescott | 4,449 | 37 | 146 | 1 | 397.1 | 6 |
2021 | Joe Burrow | 4,611 | 34 | 118 | 2 | 392.4 | 7 |
2019 | Deshaun Watson | 3,852 | 26 | 413 | 7 | 389.5 | 4 |
2020 | Lamar Jackson | 2,757 | 26 | 1,005 | 7 | 386.4 | 10 |
2020 | • Kirk Cousins | 4,265 | 35 | 156 | 1 | 384.9 | 11 |
2019 | Russell Wilson | 4,110 | 31 | 342 | 3 | 383.7 | 5 |
2021 | Aaron Rodgers | 4,115 | 37 | 101 | 3 | 382.5 | 8 |
2022 | • Geno Smith | 4,282 | 30 | 366 | 1 | 376.7 | 5 |
2022 | • Kirk Cousins | 4,547 | 29 | 97 | 2 | 371.1 | 6 |
—Ian Allan