Bill Belichick caused some raised eyebrows this week when he was asked about whether Mac Jones would be the starting quarterback in 2023. "Everybody will get a chance to play," he said. "We'll play the best players." New England's other option at the position is Bailey Zappe (assuming they're not in the Lamar Jackson discussion).
In general, I think this is just coach speak, and Belichick speak particularly. Asked about starting jobs in March a decade ago he would probably have said Rob Gronkowski had to compete for his job. I don't place a lot of stock in it; very unlikely that fourth-rounder Zappe is going to be a Week 1 starter in New England.
But it did get me taking a look at Jones, who hasn't exactly been lights out as a starter. Certainly, he was better as a rookie, when he went 10-7 and got the team into the playoffs, then in year 2, when he went 6-8 (Zappe won his 2 starts when Jones was hurt).
Most notably, Jones has made a few more mistakes than you'd like, particularly considering it's not a high-flying, pass-first offense. He's thrown 25 interceptions in his 31 starts the last two seasons. Among quarterbacks who've started most of those two years (I went with 25 starts as the threshold). that's the 4th-worst interception rate. Only 10 of those 23 quarterbacks have attempted fewer passes than he has over that time frame. So while Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have thrown more interceptions, they've done it while attempting 250-340 more passes. Considerably worse frequency for Jones.
Data from pro-football-reference.com was used in assembling this table.
| INTERCEPTION RATE, 2021-2022 (25+ STARTS) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Int% |
| Justin Fields | 25 | 351 | 588 | 4112 | 24 | 21 | 3.6 |
| Davis Mills | 26 | 555 | 873 | 5782 | 33 | 25 | 2.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | 26 | 610 | 904 | 6973 | 51 | 25 | 2.8 |
| Mac Jones | 31 | 640 | 963 | 6798 | 36 | 24 | 2.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 28 | 671 | 990 | 7309 | 60 | 25 | 2.5 |
| Derek Carr | 32 | 733 | 1128 | 8326 | 47 | 28 | 2.5 |
| Matt Ryan | 29 | 684 | 1021 | 7025 | 34 | 25 | 2.4 |
| Josh Allen | 33 | 768 | 1213 | 8690 | 71 | 29 | 2.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 29 | 569 | 856 | 6270 | 34 | 20 | 2.3 |
| Joe Burrow | 32 | 780 | 1126 | 9086 | 69 | 26 | 2.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25 | 522 | 788 | 6201 | 41 | 18 | 2.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 25 | 508 | 749 | 6247 | 36 | 16 | 2.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 34 | 746 | 1186 | 7754 | 37 | 25 | 2.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 25 | 592 | 871 | 6155 | 38 | 17 | 2.0 |
| Russell Wilson | 29 | 551 | 883 | 6637 | 41 | 17 | 1.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 34 | 871 | 1306 | 10089 | 78 | 25 | 1.9 |
| Justin Herbert | 34 | 920 | 1371 | 9753 | 63 | 25 | 1.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 33 | 796 | 1204 | 8768 | 62 | 21 | 1.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 30 | 571 | 892 | 6845 | 38 | 15 | 1.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 33 | 716 | 1073 | 7810 | 63 | 16 | 1.5 |
| Tom Brady | 34 | 975 | 1452 | 10010 | 68 | 21 | 1.4 |
| Daniel Jones | 27 | 549 | 833 | 5633 | 25 | 12 | 1.4 |
| Jared Goff | 31 | 714 | 1081 | 7683 | 48 | 15 | 1.4 |
The presence of Justin Fields at the top isn't overly surprising, though at least he was worse as a rookie (10 interceptions in his 11 starts) than in year two (11 in 15 starts, with an interception rate of 3.5 compared to 3.7). But it is a reminder that Chicago can't be 100 percent sure it's got its franchise quarterback, and why some felt they should have stayed put at No. 1 and drafted a quarterback. No. 2 on this list, Davis Mills, won't be starting for Houston this year. Matthew Stafford won a Super Bowl even while leading the league in interceptions (17) in 2021, but at least he did it while running one of the league's pass-happiest offenses (and also throwing 41 touchdowns).
In any case, I don't think Jones' job will seriously be threatened in August, but a quarterback switch at some point can't be ruled out. Jones is no Mills, but he's not necessarily the long-term answer in New England, either.
--Andy Richardson