If you scan draft previews at all, you know that the 2nd-most discussed thing next to where the quarterbacks will go is where Bijan Robinson will go. He's the consensus top running back and the only one seemingly certain to go in the first round. I'm surprised there hasn't been more talk linking him to the Bengals.
Cincinnati isn't picking until 28th, so it might require moving up. But few teams look thinner at the position right now than the Bengals, especially given the latest legal news involving Joe Mixon. And it's fair to wonder how much Mixon brings to the table these days anyway.
First the legal issues. In January, Mixon was allegedly involved in a road-rage incident where he brandished a firearm. That initially appeared like it was going away, but the charges were re-filed yesterday. Last week the team itself was non-committal on whether Mixon would be the team's starting running back in 2023. "Right now, he's on the team...I hope his other issues get resolved in a positive way." Setting aside those concerns, Mixon has a big contract, and it's fair to wonder if he's worth it any more.
Last season, most notably, he appeared in 14 games, and a pretty small percentage of them were any good. Most will recall his 5-touchdown game against Carolina. Other than that, he had just a few other decent performances, and a whole lot of bad ones.
Dipping inside the game log, consider his yards per carry average. Not a figure we do too much with, since it often depends on blocking up front and if a back is running a lot of draws out of passing formations and the like. But it looks notable to me when a veteran running back has just a few decent weeks in this regard, and a lot of really poor ones.
In just a third of his games last year did Mixon average even 3.5 yards per attempt. In the other two thirds (9 of 14) he was at 3.4 per attempt or worse. (Backup Samaje Perine, for context, was about 50-50, but there's not great evidence for comparison; he only had three games with even double-digit carries.) Mixon game log is shown below. Does it look like a guy Cincinnati wants to commit $12.5 million against the cap to this season? (Table sorted by yards per attempt.)
| MIXON GAME LOG, 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Att | Run | Avg | No | Rec | TD |
| Car. | 22 | 153 | 7.0 | 4 | 58 | 5 |
| Cle. | 14 | 96 | 6.9 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| at N.O. | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| at Bal. | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| at N.E. | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Atl. | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| at Cle. | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Pitt. | 27 | 82 | 3.0 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| at Dall. | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| at Pitt. | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Mia. | 24 | 61 | 2.5 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Balt. | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| at NYJ | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| at T.B. | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
If Mixon is in fact released -- or suspended, let's not rule that out -- who will the Bengals start? Perine signed with Denver in free agency. The team will occasionally say nice things about Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams, the only other backs on the roster, but it's hard to take those seriously. Both are former sixth-round picks who the team has never seen fit to give an opportunity.
Williams has been in the league the last four years and primarily played special teams. He has 47 career carries in 34 games.
Evans is the more intriguing player, since he's actually shown something noteworthy. As a rookie in 2021, he got on the field some as a change-of-pace and in passing situations. He averaged 4.5 yards per attempt (17 for 77) and caught 15 of the 17 passes thrown his way for 151 yards and 2 TDs. I remember him standing out in a win at Detroit that year, looking like a nice dynasty stash.
But Cincinnati itself didn't seem too impressed, since Evans barely got on the field this past season. He didn't carry the ball at all and was inactive most of the second half of the season, with Mixon and Perine healthy and Williams contributing on special teams.
To sum it up, the odds of Mixon still being on Cincinnati's roster next season don't look great. The odds that the team has a replacement starter on the roster also look remote. Maybe they'll take a chance on one of the currently unemployed veterans (Leonard Fournette?), or maybe they'll draft someone. Either way, there's the potential of a new starting running back who isn't currently on the team. Likelihood, I think.
--Andy Richardson