Tyquan Thornton had a rough rookie season. Not a complete disaster (he scored 2 TDs at Cleveland) but in general a disappoint. Not what the Patriots were hoping for when they selected him in the second round. DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Christian Watson and Tee Higgins – those guys were all picked in the second round.
Thornton caught only 22 of the 45 passes thrown his way, and it got me curious to check into some historical numbers. Specifically: how often does a rookie receiver catch fewer than half of the balls thrown his way, in general looking lost, then rebound to put together a credible season in his second season? Is there any point in firing late-round draft picks at these guys, or should we just be writing them off?
On this one, I’m setting the bar at 40. That is, I’m looking for wide receivers who finished in the top 40 in their second season who also as rookies caught fewer than half of the passes thrown their way.
Sifting through the data, it does happening once in a while – about once per year, in fact.
Isaac Bruce is the poster child for bouncing back. He posted numbers very similar to Thornton’s as a rookie back in 1994, looking like a wasted pick, then blew up in his second season, finishing with the 2nd-best receiving numbers in the league. That was the Rams’ first season back in St. Louis, before they moved into the dome there.
More recently, DJ Chark wasn’t a factor in Jacksonville as a rookie, catching only 14 of 32 passes. He became a legit guy in his second season (2019), catching 73 passes for 1,008 yards and 8 TDs. In that same year, Michael Gallup made a big move up in Dallas.
In the chart below, there are 28 players listed (but Thornton). Seven posted top-20 numbers in their second seasons, eight others made the top 30, with the remaining 13 ranking between 31st and 40th (using PPR scoring).
A few of these receivers managed to move up into the top 40 despite continuing to catch fewer than half of the passes thrown their way. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.
I’m not ready to write off Thornton at this point. He’s definitely fast, having run a 4.28 at the combine. And I remember him looking pretty good in the preseason, before he got hurt. But nor am I particularly excited about him. In general, looks like a flyer-type guy to maybe take in the last round or two.
UNEXPECTED BREAKOUT SOPHOMORES (last 30 years) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | First year |
1995 | Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 199 | 119 | 1781 | 13 | 378.8 | 2 | 44-21-272 |
2000 | David Boston, Ariz. | 133 | 71 | 1156 | 7 | 229.5 | 17 | 81-40-473 |
2007 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 84 | 53 | 920 | 12 | 217.0 | 18 | 104-45-632 |
2019 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 118 | 73 | 1008 | 8 | 225.8 | 18 | 32-14-174 |
2016 | Tyrell Williams, S.D. | 119 | 69 | 1059 | 7 | 216.9 | 19 | 5-2-90 |
2002 | Rod Gardner, Was. | 141 | 71 | 1006 | 8 | 219.7 | 19 | 101-46-741 |
1995 | Bert Emanuel, Atl. | 137 | 74 | 1039 | 5 | 207.9 | 20 | 96-46-649 |
2002 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 137 | 69 | 1166 | 5 | 215.6 | 21 | 60-28-329 |
2019 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | 113 | 66 | 1107 | 6 | 212.7 | 24 | 68-33-507 |
2002 | Quincy Morgan, Cle. | 97 | 56 | 964 | 7 | 197.1 | 24 | 72-30-432 |
1994 | • Vincent Brisby, N.E. | 122 | 58 | 904 | 5 | 178.4 | 24 | 105-45-626 |
2015 | John Brown, Ariz. | 101 | 65 | 1003 | 7 | 209.5 | 25 | 102-48-696 |
2001 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 120 | 66 | 1008 | 6 | 202.8 | 25 | 65-22-273 |
2012 | Cecil Shorts, Jac. | 105 | 55 | 979 | 7 | 194.5 | 26 | 12-2-30 |
2003 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 74 | 41 | 716 | 9 | 166.7 | 27 | 50-23-319 |
2018 | Mike Williams, LAC | 66 | 43 | 664 | 10 | 180.2 | 33 | 23-11-95 |
2008 | Ted Ginn, Mia. | 93 | 56 | 790 | 2 | 166.3 | 33 | 71-34-420 |
1996 | Frank Sanders, Ariz. | 130 | 69 | 813 | 4 | 173.9 | 33 | 109-52-883 |
1995 | • Darnay Scott, Cin. | 109 | 52 | 821 | 5 | 165.2 | 33 | 106-46-866 |
2018 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 102 | 56 | 652 | 7 | 165.2 | 35 | 74-27-316 |
1998 | Reidel Anthony, T.B. | 94 | 51 | 708 | 7 | 170.1 | 35 | 79-35-448 |
1994 | Sean Dawkins, Ind. | 99 | 51 | 742 | 5 | 155.2 | 35 | 61-26-430 |
2005 | • Roy Williams, Det. | 94 | 45 | 687 | 8 | 161.7 | 35 | 118-54-817 |
1999 | Hines Ward, Pitt. | 101 | 61 | 638 | 7 | 168.6 | 37 | 33-15-246 |
1995 | Johnnie Morton, Det. | 80 | 44 | 590 | 8 | 154.3 | 37 | 8-3-39 |
1996 | • Chris Sanders, Hou. | 105 | 48 | 882 | 4 | 160.2 | 38 | 87-35-823 |
2012 | • Denarius Moore, Oak. | 114 | 51 | 741 | 7 | 166.6 | 39 | 76-33-618 |
1993 | • Carl Pickens, Cin. | 99 | 43 | 565 | 6 | 135.5 | 40 | 56-26-326 |
2023 | Tyquan Thornton, N.E. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 45-22-247 |
—Ian Allan