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Tyquan Thornton

Can New England receiver come on in his second year?

Tyquan Thornton had a rough rookie season. Not a complete disaster (he scored 2 TDs at Cleveland) but in general a disappoint. Not what the Patriots were hoping for when they selected him in the second round. DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Christian Watson and Tee Higgins – those guys were all picked in the second round.

Thornton caught only 22 of the 45 passes thrown his way, and it got me curious to check into some historical numbers. Specifically: how often does a rookie receiver catch fewer than half of the balls thrown his way, in general looking lost, then rebound to put together a credible season in his second season? Is there any point in firing late-round draft picks at these guys, or should we just be writing them off?

On this one, I’m setting the bar at 40. That is, I’m looking for wide receivers who finished in the top 40 in their second season who also as rookies caught fewer than half of the passes thrown their way.

Sifting through the data, it does happening once in a while – about once per year, in fact.

Isaac Bruce is the poster child for bouncing back. He posted numbers very similar to Thornton’s as a rookie back in 1994, looking like a wasted pick, then blew up in his second season, finishing with the 2nd-best receiving numbers in the league. That was the Rams’ first season back in St. Louis, before they moved into the dome there.

More recently, DJ Chark wasn’t a factor in Jacksonville as a rookie, catching only 14 of 32 passes. He became a legit guy in his second season (2019), catching 73 passes for 1,008 yards and 8 TDs. In that same year, Michael Gallup made a big move up in Dallas.

In the chart below, there are 28 players listed (but Thornton). Seven posted top-20 numbers in their second seasons, eight others made the top 30, with the remaining 13 ranking between 31st and 40th (using PPR scoring).

A few of these receivers managed to move up into the top 40 despite continuing to catch fewer than half of the passes thrown their way. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.

I’m not ready to write off Thornton at this point. He’s definitely fast, having run a 4.28 at the combine. And I remember him looking pretty good in the preseason, before he got hurt. But nor am I particularly excited about him. In general, looks like a flyer-type guy to maybe take in the last round or two.

UNEXPECTED BREAKOUT SOPHOMORES (last 30 years)
YearPlayerTgtRecYdsTDPPRRkFirst year
1995Isaac Bruce, St.L.199119178113378.8244-21-272
2000David Boston, Ariz.1337111567229.51781-40-473
2007Greg Jennings, G.B.845392012217.018104-45-632
2019DJ Chark, Jac.1187310088225.81832-14-174
2016Tyrell Williams, S.D.1196910597216.9195-2-90
2002Rod Gardner, Was.1417110068219.719101-46-741
1995Bert Emanuel, Atl.1377410395207.92096-46-649
2002Chad Johnson, Cin.1376911665215.62160-28-329
2019Michael Gallup, Dall.1136611076212.72468-33-507
2002Quincy Morgan, Cle.97569647197.12472-30-432
1994• Vincent Brisby, N.E.122589045178.424105-45-626
2015John Brown, Ariz.1016510037209.525102-48-696
2001Plaxico Burress, Pitt.1206610086202.82565-22-273
2012Cecil Shorts, Jac.105559797194.52612-2-30
2003Javon Walker, G.B.74417169166.72750-23-319
2018Mike Williams, LAC664366410180.23323-11-95
2008Ted Ginn, Mia.93567902166.33371-34-420
1996Frank Sanders, Ariz.130698134173.933109-52-883
1995• Darnay Scott, Cin.109528215165.233106-46-866
2018Zay Jones, Buff.102566527165.23574-27-316
1998Reidel Anthony, T.B.94517087170.13579-35-448
1994Sean Dawkins, Ind.99517425155.23561-26-430
2005• Roy Williams, Det.94456878161.735118-54-817
1999Hines Ward, Pitt.101616387168.63733-15-246
1995Johnnie Morton, Det.80445908154.3378-3-39
1996• Chris Sanders, Hou.105488824160.23887-35-823
2012• Denarius Moore, Oak.114517417166.63976-33-618
1993• Carl Pickens, Cin.99435656135.54056-26-326
2023Tyquan Thornton, N.E.??????45-22-247

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index