Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Factoid

Tyrion Davis-Price

Did 49ers misfire on another 3rd-round running back?

At what point do we give up on Tyrion Davis-Price? The 49ers selected him in the third round, but he was underwhelming as a rookie. The team nowadays has three other backs who look a lot better.

Christian McCaffrey, of course, is their starter – the most expensive running back in the game. And both Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason averaged over 6 yards per carry last year. Mason wasn’t even drafted but forced his way onto the roster with a strong preseason.

Davis-Price, on the other hand, was unimpressive at training camp, and he gained only 99 yards on his 34 carries in the regular season, averaging under 3 yards per carry. That makes it reasonable to wonder if he’s another Trey Sermon (their third-round pick the previous year, who didn’t make it to the start of his second season).

Looking at comp backs, the numbers aren’t as dire as I would have expected. That is, if you look at a bunch of other running backs who had similarly crappy first seasons, far more of those guys were able to turn things around than I expected.

In the 32-team era, I see 36 other running backs who as rookies carried the ball at least 10 times and averaged less than 3.1 yards per carry. Of those backs, 11 of them at some point developed into viable fantasy players. Such production didn’t necessarily come in their second season, but it happened eventually. And if you separate out some fullbacks and some lesser guys who were clearly backup or special teams type players, it's really more of a 1-in-3 hit rate.

Ronald Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Reuben Droughns, Mike Davis and others have been able to have some NFL success after uninspiring initial seasons.

I’m not suggesting anyone roster Davis-Price right now (would need to a huge league to make that happen). I like Jordan Mason a lot more. But it would not be a surprise if we re-visit this situation in August or perhaps a year from now, concluding that Davis-Price might be able to turn things around.

UNDER 3 YARDS PER ATTEMPT AS ROOKIES (the next year)
YearPlayerAttRunNoRecTDPPRRk
2009Tim Hightower, Ariz.143598634288213.614
2015Charles Sims, T.B.107529515614184.016
2009Rashard Mendenhall2421108252618209.917
2019Ronald Jones, T.B.172724313096170.325
2010Mike Goodson, Car.103452403103134.238
2006Brandon Jacobs, NYG96423111499122.241
2012Bilal Powell, NYJ11043717140498.744
2005Greg Jones, Jac.1515751065498.050
2006Noah Herron, G.B.3715029211383.152
2022Deon Jackson, Ind.6823630209286.555
2009Mike Tolbert, S.D.2514817192475.059
2014Joseph Randle51343423358.674
2004Artose Pinner, Det.571741172247.676
2002Nick Goings, Car.501881891047.977
2019Mark Walton, Mia.532011589044.080
2014Fozzy Whittaker, Car.32145560237.590
2007Michael Robinson261211173030.491
2020Alec Ingold, L.V.3412110129.494
2004Jeremi Johnson, Cin.351653127.895
2002Reuben Droughns, Den.411553223.498
2006Ciatrick Fason, Min.1899319120.899
2020Patrick Laird, Mia.13721068024.0100
2008Tony Hunt, Phil.49642117.1106
2007Jerome Harrison23142219018.1107
2012Jamie Harper, Ten.193018322.8109
2016Mike Davis, S.F.1950325116.5110
2002James Jackson, Cle.12543909.3123
2017Dwayne Washington, Det.204421407.8132
2017Josh Ferguson, Ind.1531605.1139
2008Garrett Wolfe, Chi.15690006.9141
2014Michael Cox, NYG4332906.2141
2003Jonathan Wells, Hou.51421705.1141
2019John Kelly, LAR39000.9147
2022Kylin Hill, G.B.17000.7156
2020Qadree Ollison, Atl.13000.3161
2019Trenton Cannon, NYJ00000.0---
2023Tyrion Davis-Price, S.F.???????

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index