It's a good year to be looking for a tight end in the NFL Draft. There are a couple (three?) potential first-rounders, and maybe four or five selected in the first two rounds. The last time there were five selected in the first two rounds was 2017 (just 11 selected that early in the past five years combined).
Utah's Dalton Kincaid (pictured) and Notre Dame's Michael Mayer, in particular, look like they'll be first-round picks. Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave are other possibilities to go no later than the second round. It's a strong group.
What are the odds that one of these players will be a significant fantasy performer in 2023? That's fairly rare, even with talented players who eventually emerge as stars at their position.
Since 2000, there have been 28 rookie tight ends who finished in the top 20 (PPR) at their position; a little over one per season. Just five of those players finished in the top 10. It's a tough position at which to make a quick impact.
Early selection, at least, counts for something. Three of those five top-10 rookie tight ends were first-round picks. Sixteen of the 28 top-20 rookies were selected in either the first or second round. Odds for players selected from the third round on are a lot longer. (And only seven were selected after the third round, i.e. a Day 3 pick these days.)
In the table, rookie tight ends who ranked in the top 10 at the position are in bold.
| ROOKIE TES FINISHING IN THE TOP 20, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk |
| 2021 | 1 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 110 | 68 | 1026 | 1 | 6 |
| 2021 | 2 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 79 | 60 | 497 | 7 | 13 |
| 2019 | 1 | Noah Fant, Den. | 66 | 40 | 562 | 3 | 15 |
| 2018 | 4 | Chris Herndon, NYJ | 56 | 39 | 502 | 4 | 16 |
| 2018 | 3 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 50 | 34 | 552 | 3 | 17 |
| 2018 | 2 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 44 | 33 | 334 | 4 | 20 |
| 2017 | 1 | Evan Engram, NYG | 115 | 64 | 722 | 6 | 5 |
| 2017 | 5 | George Kittle, S.F. | 63 | 43 | 515 | 2 | 19 |
| 2017 | 1 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 39 | 26 | 432 | 6 | 20 |
| 2016 | 2 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 53 | 36 | 478 | 8 | 18 |
| 2013 | FA | Tim Wright, T.B. | 76 | 54 | 571 | 5 | 13 |
| 2010 | 2 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 59 | 42 | 546 | 10 | 11 |
| 2010 | 4 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 64 | 45 | 563 | 6 | 14 |
| 2010 | 1 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 83 | 52 | 471 | 4 | 16 |
| 2010 | 3 | Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 73 | 47 | 556 | 3 | 17 |
| 2008 | 2 | John Carlson, Sea. | 80 | 55 | 627 | 5 | 7 |
| 2008 | 1 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 78 | 48 | 535 | 3 | 14 |
| 2007 | 2 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 68 | 44 | 444 | 3 | 16 |
| 2006 | 4 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 51 | 34 | 352 | 5 | 14 |
| 2005 | 1 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 52 | 39 | 459 | 6 | 14 |
| 2005 | 3 | Alex Smith, T.B. | 61 | 41 | 367 | 2 | 19 |
| 2004 | 3 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 63 | 37 | 314 | 6 | 12 |
| 2003 | 3 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 54 | 35 | 347 | 1 | 20 |
| 2002 | 1 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 128 | 74 | 894 | 2 | 3 |
| 2002 | 4 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 68 | 39 | 485 | 4 | 9 |
| 2002 | 2 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 37 | 32 | 409 | 2 | 18 |
| 2001 | 7 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 64 | 40 | 362 | 3 | 15 |
| 2000 | 1 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 55 | 34 | 363 | 1 | 19 |
Where Kincaid, Mayer and company wind up will be important, of course. Some teams use tight ends more in the passing game, while some are more in need of starters at the position. But historically, it's a tough position to make a huge impact at as a rookie.
--Andy Richardson