Adam Thielen is no longer in Minnesota. I wonder if this will result in the Vikings finally getting Justin Jefferson going in goal-line situations. Thus far, he hasn’t been great in that part of the field.
Thielen (who signed with Carolina after the Vikings cut him) has long been a standout in that area. In Kirk Cousins’ five years with the team, Thielen has caught 36 passes when the team has been inside the 10-yard line, 3rd-most in the league. That includes 26 touchdowns and 3 catches of 2-point conversions (which aren’t technically plays, but I’m including them here anyway – I think they’re meaningful).
With Jefferson, on the other hand, he was simply dreadful in that part of the field in his first two seasons, catching only 7 of the 23 pass attempts (with 4 TDs and a pair of 2-point conversions). He was better last year, but still not great – 10 of 20, with 5 touchdowns and a 2-point conversion. The 20 targets tied for the most in the league, but the 30 percent scoring rate was below average.
Thielen will be 33 on opening day; he’s on the decline. But he was still more effective than Jefferson in that area of the field last year. Not as heavily used as before, but he caught 8 of his 13 targets inside the 10 last year, with 4 TDs and a 2-point conversion.
Jefferson entered the league in 2020. Since that time, 36 players have seen at least 20 targets inside the 10-yard line. He’s been one of the least effective of that group. Thielen, meanwhile, has caught a league-high 78 percent of the targets thrown his way, and with a league-high 61 percent of those pass attempts going for scores (over double the scoring rate for Jefferson).
| RECEIVING INSIDE THE 10-YARD LINE (last 3 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Com | Pct | TD | 2Pt | EZ% |
| WR Adam Thielen, Min. | 36 | 28 | 78% | 20 | 2 | 61% |
| TE T.J. Hockenson, Det.-Min. | 25 | 15 | 60% | 11 | 4 | 60% |
| TE Dalton Schultz, Dall. | 21 | 16 | 76% | 11 | 1 | 57% |
| WR Mike Evans, T.B. | 35 | 20 | 57% | 19 | 0 | 54% |
| TE Travis Kelce, K.C. | 43 | 32 | 74% | 21 | 2 | 53% |
| WR Davante Adams, G.B.-L.V. | 46 | 32 | 70% | 24 | 0 | 52% |
| WR Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 23 | 13 | 57% | 11 | 1 | 52% |
| WR Tyreek Hill, K.C.-Mia. | 27 | 18 | 67% | 14 | 0 | 52% |
| TE Mark Andrews, Balt. | 31 | 19 | 61% | 13 | 3 | 52% |
| TE Dawson Knox, Buff. | 21 | 15 | 71% | 10 | 0 | 48% |
| TE Tyler Higbee, LAR | 24 | 15 | 63% | 10 | 1 | 46% |
| TE Hunter Henry, LAC-N.E. | 20 | 10 | 50% | 9 | 0 | 45% |
| WR Russell Gage, Atl.-T.B. | 23 | 12 | 52% | 9 | 1 | 43% |
| WR Cooper Kupp, LAR | 30 | 18 | 60% | 13 | 0 | 43% |
| WR Keenan Allen, LAC | 28 | 16 | 57% | 11 | 1 | 43% |
| TE Zach Ertz, Phi.-Ari. | 28 | 16 | 57% | 9 | 3 | 43% |
| WR DJ Moore, Car. | 21 | 10 | 48% | 8 | 1 | 43% |
| TE Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 22 | 10 | 45% | 8 | 1 | 41% |
| WR Chris Godwin, T.B. | 27 | 18 | 67% | 10 | 1 | 41% |
| WR Christian Kirk, Ari.-Jac. | 27 | 14 | 52% | 11 | 0 | 41% |
| WR DK Metcalf, Sea. | 26 | 10 | 38% | 10 | 0 | 38% |
| TE Darren Waller, L.V. | 27 | 15 | 56% | 9 | 1 | 37% |
| WR Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 33 | 18 | 55% | 12 | 0 | 36% |
| RB Austin Ekeler, LAC | 22 | 19 | 86% | 7 | 1 | 36% |
| WR Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 25 | 14 | 56% | 6 | 3 | 36% |
| WR A.J. Brown, Ten.-Phi. | 20 | 9 | 45% | 7 | 0 | 35% |
| WR Marvin Jones, Det.-Jac. | 20 | 10 | 50% | 7 | 0 | 35% |
| WR Amari Cooper, Dall.-Cle. | 23 | 10 | 43% | 8 | 0 | 35% |
| WR Allen Robinson, Chi.-LAR | 23 | 9 | 39% | 6 | 1 | 30% |
| WR DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. | 23 | 10 | 43% | 7 | 0 | 30% |
| WR Randall Cobb, Hou.-G.B. | 21 | 6 | 29% | 6 | 0 | 29% |
| WR Justin Jefferson, Min. | 43 | 17 | 40% | 9 | 3 | 28% |
| WR Michael Pittman, Ind. | 22 | 12 | 55% | 5 | 1 | 27% |
| WR Mike Williams, LAC | 21 | 6 | 29% | 4 | 1 | 24% |
| WR Chase Claypool, Pitt.-Chi. | 22 | 7 | 32% | 5 | 0 | 23% |
| WR A.J. Green, Cin.-Ari. | 25 | 7 | 28% | 4 | 1 | 20% |
—Ian Allan