I think we’re going to see less running and more passing out of Jalen Hurts this year. He’s evolved as a passer, and I think they’ll want to lean into that.
This is how it tends to go with mobile quarterbacks. The eventual goal is develop into more of distributor, getting the ball in the hands of the surrounding talent. And Hurts in Philly certainly has the surrounding talent, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside and Dallas Goedert at tight end.
Hurts progressed nicely as a passer last year, with his completion percentage rising from 61 to 67 percent. He averaged 37 more passing yards, with 6 more touchdown passes and 3 fewer interceptions. He’s ready to do more as a passer.
Not that he won’t still be a factor as a runner, especially around the goal-line. But I think they’ll dial that back some. He’s averaged 52 rushing yards in his last 30 games, with 23 TDs. A drop down to perhaps 40-45 rushing yards, with a half-dozen fewer touchdowns, seems reasonable.
I wanted to poke around with some historical numbers on this topic, so I called up the career stats of all quarterbacks who’ve run for at least 600 yards in a season. Those 18 players are listed below. You’re not seeing all 600-yard seasons, but only the very best season by each of the 18. All but three of the seasons were authored by players in their first four seasons, and 10 of the 18 came from players in their first three years.
| BEST RUSHING SEASONS BY THE MOST MOBILE QBs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | |
| 2011 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 2 | 122 | 660 | 5.4 | 6 | |
| 1972 | Bobby Douglass, Chi. | 4 | 141 | 968 | 6.9 | 8 | |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2 | 176 | 1206 | 6.9 | 7 | |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 2 | 160 | 1143 | 7.1 | 8 | |
| 2006 | • Michael Vick, Atl. | 6 | 123 | 1039 | 8.5 | 2 | |
| 1990 | • Randall Cunningham, Phil. | 6 | 118 | 942 | 8.0 | 5 | |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3 | 118 | 849 | 7.2 | 6 | |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 2 | 133 | 819 | 6.2 | 11 | |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 1 | 120 | 815 | 6.8 | 7 | |
| 2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 2 | 139 | 784 | 5.6 | 10 | |
| 2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4 | 122 | 763 | 6.3 | 6 | |
| 2017 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 7 | 139 | 754 | 5.4 | 6 | |
| 2022 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 4 | 120 | 708 | 5.9 | 7 | |
| 1997 | Steve McNair, Ten. | 3 | 101 | 674 | 6.7 | 8 | |
| 2014 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 4 | 104 | 639 | 6.1 | 1 | |
| 2000 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 2 | 86 | 629 | 7.3 | 6 | |
| 2002 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 4 | 106 | 609 | 5.8 | 10 | |
I take these numbers as an indication that I think we’ll see Hurts doing a little less as a runner going forward. He’s run for 784 and 760 yards the last two seasons, but I don’t think they’ll want him running quite that much going forward. I think it’s time to let him do a little bit more as a passer.
Below see the average run frequency for these 18 quarterbacks as a group. On average, they ran the ball on just over 21 percent of their plays as rookies. That dropped to just under 21 percent in their second seasons, and continued to drop each year all the way through their ninth season.
This doesn’t mean that every quarterback will run less every year. There are exceptions. Lamar Jackson’s run frequency has decreased in each of his five seasons, while Daniel Jones has actually run more often in each of his four seasons. But we can look at all of these quarterbacks as a group and see a tendency to run less over time.
So as I’m chalking up the rushing forecast for Hurts, it will be lower than what he’s been doing the last two years.
In the chart below, the percentage number is the number of rushing attempts divided by the number of total plays involving the quarterback (both rushing attempts and passing attempts). As a disclaimer, I probably should have included sacks but did not. That would lower all of the numbers some, but it wouldn’t change the overriding point.
| RUN FREQUENCY BY YEAR | |
|---|---|
| Season | Pct |
| 1st year | 21.1% |
| 2nd year | 20.9% |
| 3rd year | 19.3% |
| 4th year | 19.0% |
| 5th year | 18.1% |
| 6th year | 16.3% |
| 7th year | 14.8% |
| 8th year | 14.3% |
| 9th year | 11.4% |
| 10th year | 14.3% |
—Ian Allan