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Ian Allan

Rookie tight ends

Do tight ends need more time to adjust to the pro game?

‘It takes longer for a tight end to adjust to the NFL game.’ That’s the theory. But is that actually true? Poking around with some of the numbers, I’m not sure that it is.

Below, see charts showing the top 20 rookies of the last 10 years at both tight end and at wide receiver. They’re not as different as I was expecting. Wide receivers have been slightly more productive, but it might be more accurate to say the two groups have been almost the same statistically. In the last 10 years, there have been 11 tight ends and 11 wide receivers who’ve finished with top-20 numbers at their position (using PPR scoring).

The difference, I think, isn’t that tight ends have been slow starters. I think it’s instead how we value the positions. In a typical fantasy league, we start three wide receivers most weeks. So, in a 12-team league, if a wide receiver finishes with top-25 numbers, that makes him a meaningful, contributing player. But in those same leagues, we typically use one tight end. So if you’ve got the 25th-best tight end, that’s a nothing burger.

I am changing my thinking on this issue. With tight ends, I think it’s more about positional scarcity, rather than tight ends having to be both pseudo offensive linemen and pass catchers, with an increased learning curve to get their careers going.

For the 2023 season, there’s a deeper than usual cast of tight ends coming in, with Dalton Kincaid (pictured) leading the way. I’m not sure where he’s going, but I expect it will be the first round, and that he’ll be a top-20 player at his position in his first year. If form holds, that won’t move the needle a ton in typical fantasy leagues.

TOP 20 ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerNoRecTDPPRRk
2017Evan Engram, NYG647226173.65
2021Kyle Pitts, Atl.681,0261176.66
2021Pat Freiermuth, Pitt.604977153.713
2013Tim Wright, T.B.545715141.313
2019Noah Fant, Den.405623113.015
2018Chris Herndon, NYJ395024113.216
2018Mark Andrews, Balt.345523107.217
2016Hunter Henry, S.D.364788131.818
2017George Kittle, S.F.435152106.519
2017O.J. Howard, T.B.264326105.220
2018Dallas Goedert, Phil.33334490.420
2013Jordan Reed, Was.454993114.722
2013Zach Ertz, Phil.364694106.923
2013Mychal Rivera, Oak.384074102.724
2017David Njoku, Cle.32386494.724
2014Jace Amaro, NYJ38345284.524
2018Ian Thomas, Car.36333281.324
2015Will Tye, NYG424643106.425
2022Chigoziem Okonkwo, Ten.32450397.225
2013Tyler Eifert, Cin.39445295.526
TOP 20 ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerNoRecTDPPRRk
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.811,45513306.65
2020Justin Jefferson, Min.881,4007274.26
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.921,1379259.77
2014Odell Beckham, NYG911,30512297.08
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.1041,0157247.812
2014Mike Evans, T.B.681,05112245.113
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.731,0089227.816
2013Keenan Allen, S.D.711,0468223.618
2016Tyreek Hill, K.C.6159312219.018
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl.6482110208.820
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.589178197.720
2022Garrett Wilson, NYJ831,1034217.721
2015Amari Cooper, Oak.721,0706214.721
2021Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.909126227.322
2020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.749357219.722
2019A.J. Brown, Ten.521,0519217.122
2020Chase Claypool, Pitt.6287311216.923
2022Chris Olave, N.O.721,0424202.224
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil.678728202.225
2017Cooper Kupp, LAR628695178.925

And as long as we’ve got the numbers out, I will also publish the top 20 rookies of the last 10 years at the running back and quarterback positions. There has been more instant success for running backs than at the other positions.

TOP 20 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerRunNoRecTDPPRRk
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG1,3079172115385.82
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1,6313236316327.42
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.7288182614322.43
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.1,2007446710300.73
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.1,3275345511297.24
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.1,1693629912254.86
2020James Robinson, Jac.1,0704934410252.47
2015David Johnson, Ariz.5813645713217.87
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.1,1783525711244.58
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.435806517230.69
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.1,1062118810210.49
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.1,313292987232.110
2017Leonard Fournette, Jac.1,0403630210230.210
2014Jeremy Hill, Cin.1,124272159214.910
2013Giovani Bernard, Cin.695565148224.913
2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.1,0373524110222.813
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.7953624711206.214
2019Miles Sanders, Phil.818505096220.715
2013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.860453998218.915
2020D'Andre Swift, Det.5214635710193.816
TOP 20 ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerPassTDPIntRunTDPPRRk
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.3,72220125444350.56
2020Justin Herbert, LAC4,33631102345398.29
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.3,6672342826339.610
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.4,04222152136349.413
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.3,72527141310311.417
2021Mac Jones, N.E.3,80122131290295.017
2019Daniel Jones, NYG3,02724122792291.320
2013Geno Smith, NYJ3,04612213666275.220
2014Derek Carr, Oak.3,2702112920256.720
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.3,2712163440288.021
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.2,90811174190233.321
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.3,78216141502285.822
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.3,64112173342279.522
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.2,81819102523271.222
2017DeShone Kizer, Cle.2,89411224195260.622
2018Josh Allen, Buff.2,07410126318256.822
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Min.2,91914122091232.922
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ2,86517151381231.124
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.2,6881351423218.625
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.2,608199370210.125

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index