‘It takes longer for a tight end to adjust to the NFL game.’ That’s the theory. But is that actually true? Poking around with some of the numbers, I’m not sure that it is.
Below, see charts showing the top 20 rookies of the last 10 years at both tight end and at wide receiver. They’re not as different as I was expecting. Wide receivers have been slightly more productive, but it might be more accurate to say the two groups have been almost the same statistically. In the last 10 years, there have been 11 tight ends and 11 wide receivers who’ve finished with top-20 numbers at their position (using PPR scoring).
The difference, I think, isn’t that tight ends have been slow starters. I think it’s instead how we value the positions. In a typical fantasy league, we start three wide receivers most weeks. So, in a 12-team league, if a wide receiver finishes with top-25 numbers, that makes him a meaningful, contributing player. But in those same leagues, we typically use one tight end. So if you’ve got the 25th-best tight end, that’s a nothing burger.
I am changing my thinking on this issue. With tight ends, I think it’s more about positional scarcity, rather than tight ends having to be both pseudo offensive linemen and pass catchers, with an increased learning curve to get their careers going.
For the 2023 season, there’s a deeper than usual cast of tight ends coming in, with Dalton Kincaid (pictured) leading the way. I’m not sure where he’s going, but I expect it will be the first round, and that he’ll be a top-20 player at his position in his first year. If form holds, that won’t move the needle a ton in typical fantasy leagues.
TOP 20 ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS OF LAST 10 YEARS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | 64 | 722 | 6 | 173.6 | 5 |
2021 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 68 | 1,026 | 1 | 176.6 | 6 |
2021 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 60 | 497 | 7 | 153.7 | 13 |
2013 | Tim Wright, T.B. | 54 | 571 | 5 | 141.3 | 13 |
2019 | Noah Fant, Den. | 40 | 562 | 3 | 113.0 | 15 |
2018 | Chris Herndon, NYJ | 39 | 502 | 4 | 113.2 | 16 |
2018 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 34 | 552 | 3 | 107.2 | 17 |
2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 36 | 478 | 8 | 131.8 | 18 |
2017 | George Kittle, S.F. | 43 | 515 | 2 | 106.5 | 19 |
2017 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 26 | 432 | 6 | 105.2 | 20 |
2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 33 | 334 | 4 | 90.4 | 20 |
2013 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 45 | 499 | 3 | 114.7 | 22 |
2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 36 | 469 | 4 | 106.9 | 23 |
2013 | Mychal Rivera, Oak. | 38 | 407 | 4 | 102.7 | 24 |
2017 | David Njoku, Cle. | 32 | 386 | 4 | 94.7 | 24 |
2014 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 38 | 345 | 2 | 84.5 | 24 |
2018 | Ian Thomas, Car. | 36 | 333 | 2 | 81.3 | 24 |
2015 | Will Tye, NYG | 42 | 464 | 3 | 106.4 | 25 |
2022 | Chigoziem Okonkwo, Ten. | 32 | 450 | 3 | 97.2 | 25 |
2013 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 39 | 445 | 2 | 95.5 | 26 |
TOP 20 ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS OF LAST 10 YEARS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 91 | 1,305 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 1,015 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1,008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 71 | 1,046 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 61 | 593 | 12 | 219.0 | 18 |
2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 58 | 917 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 83 | 1,103 | 4 | 217.7 | 21 |
2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1,070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 90 | 912 | 6 | 227.3 | 22 |
2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 52 | 1,051 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 |
2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 62 | 873 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 |
2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 72 | 1,042 | 4 | 202.2 | 24 |
2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 67 | 872 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 |
2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 62 | 869 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
And as long as we’ve got the numbers out, I will also publish the top 20 rookies of the last 10 years at the running back and quarterback positions. There has been more instant success for running backs than at the other positions.
TOP 20 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS OF LAST 10 YEARS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1,307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1,631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 81 | 826 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1,200 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1,327 | 53 | 455 | 11 | 297.2 | 4 |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1,169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 254.8 | 6 |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1,070 | 49 | 344 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 36 | 457 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1,178 | 35 | 257 | 11 | 244.5 | 8 |
2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 80 | 651 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,106 | 21 | 188 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,313 | 29 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1,040 | 36 | 302 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1,124 | 27 | 215 | 9 | 214.9 | 10 |
2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 56 | 514 | 8 | 224.9 | 13 |
2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1,037 | 35 | 241 | 10 | 222.8 | 13 |
2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 795 | 36 | 247 | 11 | 206.2 | 14 |
2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 |
2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 45 | 399 | 8 | 218.9 | 15 |
2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 521 | 46 | 357 | 10 | 193.8 | 16 |
TOP 20 ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS OF LAST 10 YEARS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 | 6 |
2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 | 9 |
2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 282 | 6 | 339.6 | 10 |
2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 213 | 6 | 349.4 | 13 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 131 | 0 | 311.4 | 17 |
2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 3,801 | 22 | 13 | 129 | 0 | 295.0 | 17 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 3,027 | 24 | 12 | 279 | 2 | 291.3 | 20 |
2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 366 | 6 | 275.2 | 20 |
2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | 92 | 0 | 256.7 | 20 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 344 | 0 | 288.0 | 21 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 2,908 | 11 | 17 | 419 | 0 | 233.3 | 21 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 150 | 2 | 285.8 | 22 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 | 279.5 | 22 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 252 | 3 | 271.2 | 22 |
2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | 2,894 | 11 | 22 | 419 | 5 | 260.6 | 22 |
2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 | 256.8 | 22 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 2,919 | 14 | 12 | 209 | 1 | 232.9 | 22 |
2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 | 231.1 | 24 |
2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 142 | 3 | 218.6 | 25 |
2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 2,608 | 19 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 210.1 | 25 |
—Ian Allan