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Ian Allan

Bijan Robinson

Is Robinson the next big thing at running back?

I don’t get it with Bijan Robinson. I’m on board with him being the most promising rookie (for fantasy purposes), but I don’t understand why he’s being described a running back talent who only comes long once every few years.

I watched three of his game cutups last night – Alabama, Oklahoma and Iowa State. I didn’t see a running back who wowed me.

With the very best, elite backs, they’re difference makers. They tilt the field. You see plays where the defense does everything right but the back ends up gaining yards or getting in the end zone anyway, simply because he’s bigger, faster or better than the guys who are trying to stop him. I don’t see that with Robinson.

In these three games, I saw way too many plays where he was in a one-on-one situation against a defender and didn’t create anything extra. Especially in the Alabama game, where he averaged only 2.7 yards per attempt. In the Iowa State game, I saw him stopped on back-to-back plays at the goal line where I thought he would get in, based on him being better than the guys trying to tackle him. And I think in all three games, there were multiple plays where it looked like he might be going for a big gainer but instead got tripped up. In general, I expected him to be better.

On the plus side, I saw four really nice catches, where he pulled in balls that were off target. One downfield catch against Iowa State that I don’t think a lot of wide receivers would make. He’ll be an asset in the passing game immediately.

But if you’re taking a running back with a top-15 pick, it’s with the belief that he’ll be a top-5 back right away. I don’t see that.

Consider Breece Hall. He went 36th in last year’s draft. Why are we thinking of Robinson as being better than Hall? They’re almost exactly the same size, and Hall tested better at the combine (he ran 4.39, while Robinson clocked 4.46). Hall jumped 3 inches higher and was 2 inches better in the board jump. The college production numbers for those guys I think can fairly be described as comparable – they both ran for a bunch of yards and touchdowns. Hall doesn’t have the silky smooth hands but caught more passes at the college leve.

If I were in a dynasty league, I would select Hall before Robinson. Hall is coming off a torn ACL, of course, but he’s shown he can do it on an NFL field. He was really cutting it up last year before his injury, looking like he was going to be the rookie of the year. (I guess this could be used as a selling point for Robinson: He could be similar to Hall, and Hall in hindsight should have been picked a lot earlier than 36th.)

Below see the list of the top 100 rookie running backs of the last 15 years. There have been 12 who were selected with top-15 picks, and they tended to come in below the lofty preseason expectations. The best two rookie running backs of the last 15 years (Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott) were both top-5 picks who came in even more heavily hyped than Robinson. Nothing wrong with those guys. But the other 13 all came in below what fantasy leaguers were hoping for.

In the chart below, running backs who were top-15 backs are tagged with black dots. (One of those backs didn’t even make the top 100 and is tagged onto the end – C.J. Spiller.)

I post the stats to underscore that while Robinson makes sense to be the first rookie selected in fantasy drafts this year, it’s probably more likely that some other running back selected later in the draft will finish with better numbers. With Robinson not wowing me on tapped, I would take “the field” side of that bet. At least for now; let’s see what team winds up selecting him next week.

ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS (last 15 years)
YearPlayerPkRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2018• Saquon Barkley, NYG21,3077212,02815385.82
2016• Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.41,6313631,99416327.42
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.677288261,55414322.43
2012Doug Martin, T.B.311,4544721,92612313.62
2008Matt Forte, Chi.441,2384771,71512306.52
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.241,2004671,66710300.73
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.861,3274551,78211297.24
2008Steve Slaton, Hou.891,2823771,65910275.97
2012Alfred Morris, Was.1731,613771,69013258.07
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.411,1692991,46812254.86
2012• Trent Richardson, Cle.39503671,31712254.78
2020James Robinson, Jac.FA1,0703441,41410252.47
2008Chris Johnson, Ten.241,2282601,48810251.811
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.611,1782571,43511244.58
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.1501,3132981,6117232.110
2017• Christian McCaffrey, Car.84356511,0867230.69
2017• Leonard Fournette, Jac.41,0403021,34210230.210
2013Giovani Bernard, Cin.376955141,2098224.913
2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.FA1,0372411,27810222.813
2019Miles Sanders, Phil.538185091,3276220.715
2013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.488603991,2598218.915
2015David Johnson, Ariz.865814571,03813217.87
2014Jeremy Hill, Cin.551,1242151,3399214.910
2008Kevin Smith, Det.649762861,2628213.217
2015• Todd Gurley, St.L.101,1061881,29410210.49
2021Javonte Williams, Den.359033161,2197206.917
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.667952471,04211206.214
2022Kenneth Walker, Sea.411,0501651,2159202.518
2010Jahvid Best, Det.305554871,0426198.220
2009• Knowshon Moreno, Den.129472131,1609198.018
2018Nick Chubb, Cle.359961491,14510194.517
2020D'Andre Swift, Det.3552135787810193.816
2019Josh Jacobs, Oak.241,1501661,3167193.621
2013Zac Stacy, St.L.1609731411,1148185.421
2020Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.328032971,1005176.022
2019David Montgomery, Chi.738891851,0747174.424
2022Dameon Pierce, Hou.1079391651,1045170.425
2011Roy Helu, Was.1056403791,0193168.925
2020J.K. Dobbins, Balt.558051209259168.524
2013Andre Ellington, Ariz.1876523711,0234165.326
2021Elijah Mitchell, S.F.1949631371,1006165.026
2015Duke Johnson, Cle.773795349132164.324
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.1043144257394160.928
2009LeSean McCoy, Phil.536373089454160.532
2022Tyler Allgeier, Atl.1511,0351391,1744159.430
2008Tim Hightower, Ariz.14939923763610157.632
2021Michael Carter, NYJ1076393259644156.429
2008• Jonathan Stewart, Car.138364788310156.333
2015T.J. Yeldon, Jac.367402791,0193155.928
2017Tarik Cohen, Chi.1193703537234154.428
2019Devin Singletary, Buff.747751949694149.933
2015Javorius Allen, Balt.1255143538673149.729
2016Devontae Booker, Den.1366122658775148.729
2015Jeremy Langford, Chi.1065372798167147.630
2009Beanie Wells, Ariz.317931439367147.637
2010• Ryan Mathews, S.D.126781458237146.331
2011DeMarco Murray, Dall.718971831,0802146.030
2017Joe Mixon, Cin.486262879134145.333
2014Branden Oliver, S.D.FA5822718534145.326
2022Rachaad White, T.B.914812907713145.135
2014Andre Williams, NYG1137211308517145.127
2010LeGarrette Blount, T.B.FA1,007141,0216143.134
2017Jamaal Williams, G.B.1345562628186142.834
2018Kerryon Johnson, Det.436412138544141.433
2018Sony Michel, N.E.31931509816141.134
2021Chuba Hubbard, Car.1266121747866139.636
2022Isiah Pacheco, K.C.2518301309605139.037
2014Tre Mason, St.L.757651489135137.330
2016Robert Kelley, Was.FA704827867132.638
2012Vick Ballard, Ind.1708141529663131.633
2008• Darren McFadden, Oak.44992857844131.442
2015Thomas Rawls, Sea.FA830769065129.637
2014Isaiah Crowell, Cle.FA607876948126.433
2015Karlos Williams, Buff.155517966139126.338
2010Keiland Williams, Was.FA2613095705126.039
2021Kenneth Gainwell, Phil.1502912535446125.440
2015Matt Jones, Was.954903047944122.441
2015Ameer Abdullah, Det.545971837803121.044
2022Breece Hall, NYJ364632186815117.142
2021Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.1206061237295116.947
2015• Melvin Gordon, S.D.156411928330116.345
2016Jalen Richard, Oak.FA4911946853115.542
2014Terrance West, Cle.94673647375114.741
2013Montee Ball, Den.585591457044114.443
2022Brian Robinson, Was.98797608573112.743
2017Samaje Perine, Was.1146031827852112.543
2017Austin Ekeler, LACFA2602795395110.944
2022James Cook, Buff.635071806873107.744
2017Wayne Gallman, NYG1404761936691106.946
2016Derrick Henry, Ten.454901376275105.745
2008Ray Rice, Balt.554542737270105.749
2010Chris Ivory, N.O.FA716177335104.347
2020Cam Akers, LAR526251237483103.845
2017Matt Breida, S.F.FA4651806453103.547
2018Royce Freeman, Den.71521725935103.346
2017Marlon Mack, Ind.1433582255834103.348
2016Kenneth Dixon, Balt.1343821625443102.447
2008Peyton Hillis, Den.2273431795226102.251
2020Zack Moss, Buff.86481955765101.649
2014Bishop Sankey, Ten.545691337022100.244
2010• C.J. Spiller, Buff.9283157440280.055

—Ian Allan

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