I don’t get it with Bijan Robinson. I’m on board with him being the most promising rookie (for fantasy purposes), but I don’t understand why he’s being described a running back talent who only comes long once every few years.
I watched three of his game cutups last night – Alabama, Oklahoma and Iowa State. I didn’t see a running back who wowed me.
With the very best, elite backs, they’re difference makers. They tilt the field. You see plays where the defense does everything right but the back ends up gaining yards or getting in the end zone anyway, simply because he’s bigger, faster or better than the guys who are trying to stop him. I don’t see that with Robinson.
In these three games, I saw way too many plays where he was in a one-on-one situation against a defender and didn’t create anything extra. Especially in the Alabama game, where he averaged only 2.7 yards per attempt. In the Iowa State game, I saw him stopped on back-to-back plays at the goal line where I thought he would get in, based on him being better than the guys trying to tackle him. And I think in all three games, there were multiple plays where it looked like he might be going for a big gainer but instead got tripped up. In general, I expected him to be better.
On the plus side, I saw four really nice catches, where he pulled in balls that were off target. One downfield catch against Iowa State that I don’t think a lot of wide receivers would make. He’ll be an asset in the passing game immediately.
But if you’re taking a running back with a top-15 pick, it’s with the belief that he’ll be a top-5 back right away. I don’t see that.
Consider Breece Hall. He went 36th in last year’s draft. Why are we thinking of Robinson as being better than Hall? They’re almost exactly the same size, and Hall tested better at the combine (he ran 4.39, while Robinson clocked 4.46). Hall jumped 3 inches higher and was 2 inches better in the board jump. The college production numbers for those guys I think can fairly be described as comparable – they both ran for a bunch of yards and touchdowns. Hall doesn’t have the silky smooth hands but caught more passes at the college leve.
If I were in a dynasty league, I would select Hall before Robinson. Hall is coming off a torn ACL, of course, but he’s shown he can do it on an NFL field. He was really cutting it up last year before his injury, looking like he was going to be the rookie of the year. (I guess this could be used as a selling point for Robinson: He could be similar to Hall, and Hall in hindsight should have been picked a lot earlier than 36th.)
Below see the list of the top 100 rookie running backs of the last 15 years. There have been 12 who were selected with top-15 picks, and they tended to come in below the lofty preseason expectations. The best two rookie running backs of the last 15 years (Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott) were both top-5 picks who came in even more heavily hyped than Robinson. Nothing wrong with those guys. But the other 13 all came in below what fantasy leaguers were hoping for.
In the chart below, running backs who were top-15 backs are tagged with black dots. (One of those backs didn’t even make the top 100 and is tagged onto the end – C.J. Spiller.)
I post the stats to underscore that while Robinson makes sense to be the first rookie selected in fantasy drafts this year, it’s probably more likely that some other running back selected later in the draft will finish with better numbers. With Robinson not wowing me on tapped, I would take “the field” side of that bet. At least for now; let’s see what team winds up selecting him next week.
ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS (last 15 years) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pk | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
2018 | • Saquon Barkley, NYG | 2 | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 |
2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 4 | 1,631 | 363 | 1,994 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 67 | 728 | 826 | 1,554 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 31 | 1,454 | 472 | 1,926 | 12 | 313.6 | 2 |
2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 44 | 1,238 | 477 | 1,715 | 12 | 306.5 | 2 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 24 | 1,200 | 467 | 1,667 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 86 | 1,327 | 455 | 1,782 | 11 | 297.2 | 4 |
2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 89 | 1,282 | 377 | 1,659 | 10 | 275.9 | 7 |
2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 173 | 1,613 | 77 | 1,690 | 13 | 258.0 | 7 |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 41 | 1,169 | 299 | 1,468 | 12 | 254.8 | 6 |
2012 | • Trent Richardson, Cle. | 3 | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 | 254.7 | 8 |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | FA | 1,070 | 344 | 1,414 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
2008 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 24 | 1,228 | 260 | 1,488 | 10 | 251.8 | 11 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 61 | 1,178 | 257 | 1,435 | 11 | 244.5 | 8 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 150 | 1,313 | 298 | 1,611 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
2017 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 8 | 435 | 651 | 1,086 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
2017 | • Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 4 | 1,040 | 302 | 1,342 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 37 | 695 | 514 | 1,209 | 8 | 224.9 | 13 |
2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | FA | 1,037 | 241 | 1,278 | 10 | 222.8 | 13 |
2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 53 | 818 | 509 | 1,327 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 |
2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 48 | 860 | 399 | 1,259 | 8 | 218.9 | 15 |
2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 86 | 581 | 457 | 1,038 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 55 | 1,124 | 215 | 1,339 | 9 | 214.9 | 10 |
2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 64 | 976 | 286 | 1,262 | 8 | 213.2 | 17 |
2015 | • Todd Gurley, St.L. | 10 | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 35 | 903 | 316 | 1,219 | 7 | 206.9 | 17 |
2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 66 | 795 | 247 | 1,042 | 11 | 206.2 | 14 |
2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 41 | 1,050 | 165 | 1,215 | 9 | 202.5 | 18 |
2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 30 | 555 | 487 | 1,042 | 6 | 198.2 | 20 |
2009 | • Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 12 | 947 | 213 | 1,160 | 9 | 198.0 | 18 |
2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 35 | 996 | 149 | 1,145 | 10 | 194.5 | 17 |
2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 35 | 521 | 357 | 878 | 10 | 193.8 | 16 |
2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 24 | 1,150 | 166 | 1,316 | 7 | 193.6 | 21 |
2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 160 | 973 | 141 | 1,114 | 8 | 185.4 | 21 |
2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 32 | 803 | 297 | 1,100 | 5 | 176.0 | 22 |
2019 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 73 | 889 | 185 | 1,074 | 7 | 174.4 | 24 |
2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 107 | 939 | 165 | 1,104 | 5 | 170.4 | 25 |
2011 | Roy Helu, Was. | 105 | 640 | 379 | 1,019 | 3 | 168.9 | 25 |
2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 55 | 805 | 120 | 925 | 9 | 168.5 | 24 |
2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 187 | 652 | 371 | 1,023 | 4 | 165.3 | 26 |
2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 194 | 963 | 137 | 1,100 | 6 | 165.0 | 26 |
2015 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 77 | 379 | 534 | 913 | 2 | 164.3 | 24 |
2018 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 104 | 314 | 425 | 739 | 4 | 160.9 | 28 |
2009 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 53 | 637 | 308 | 945 | 4 | 160.5 | 32 |
2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 151 | 1,035 | 139 | 1,174 | 4 | 159.4 | 30 |
2008 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 149 | 399 | 237 | 636 | 10 | 157.6 | 32 |
2021 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 107 | 639 | 325 | 964 | 4 | 156.4 | 29 |
2008 | • Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 13 | 836 | 47 | 883 | 10 | 156.3 | 33 |
2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 36 | 740 | 279 | 1,019 | 3 | 155.9 | 28 |
2017 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 119 | 370 | 353 | 723 | 4 | 154.4 | 28 |
2019 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 74 | 775 | 194 | 969 | 4 | 149.9 | 33 |
2015 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 125 | 514 | 353 | 867 | 3 | 149.7 | 29 |
2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 136 | 612 | 265 | 877 | 5 | 148.7 | 29 |
2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 106 | 537 | 279 | 816 | 7 | 147.6 | 30 |
2009 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 31 | 793 | 143 | 936 | 7 | 147.6 | 37 |
2010 | • Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 12 | 678 | 145 | 823 | 7 | 146.3 | 31 |
2011 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 71 | 897 | 183 | 1,080 | 2 | 146.0 | 30 |
2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 48 | 626 | 287 | 913 | 4 | 145.3 | 33 |
2014 | Branden Oliver, S.D. | FA | 582 | 271 | 853 | 4 | 145.3 | 26 |
2022 | Rachaad White, T.B. | 91 | 481 | 290 | 771 | 3 | 145.1 | 35 |
2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 113 | 721 | 130 | 851 | 7 | 145.1 | 27 |
2010 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | FA | 1,007 | 14 | 1,021 | 6 | 143.1 | 34 |
2017 | Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 134 | 556 | 262 | 818 | 6 | 142.8 | 34 |
2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 43 | 641 | 213 | 854 | 4 | 141.4 | 33 |
2018 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 31 | 931 | 50 | 981 | 6 | 141.1 | 34 |
2021 | Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 126 | 612 | 174 | 786 | 6 | 139.6 | 36 |
2022 | Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 251 | 830 | 130 | 960 | 5 | 139.0 | 37 |
2014 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 75 | 765 | 148 | 913 | 5 | 137.3 | 30 |
2016 | Robert Kelley, Was. | FA | 704 | 82 | 786 | 7 | 132.6 | 38 |
2012 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 170 | 814 | 152 | 966 | 3 | 131.6 | 33 |
2008 | • Darren McFadden, Oak. | 4 | 499 | 285 | 784 | 4 | 131.4 | 42 |
2015 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | FA | 830 | 76 | 906 | 5 | 129.6 | 37 |
2014 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | FA | 607 | 87 | 694 | 8 | 126.4 | 33 |
2015 | Karlos Williams, Buff. | 155 | 517 | 96 | 613 | 9 | 126.3 | 38 |
2010 | Keiland Williams, Was. | FA | 261 | 309 | 570 | 5 | 126.0 | 39 |
2021 | Kenneth Gainwell, Phil. | 150 | 291 | 253 | 544 | 6 | 125.4 | 40 |
2015 | Matt Jones, Was. | 95 | 490 | 304 | 794 | 4 | 122.4 | 41 |
2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 54 | 597 | 183 | 780 | 3 | 121.0 | 44 |
2022 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 36 | 463 | 218 | 681 | 5 | 117.1 | 42 |
2021 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 120 | 606 | 123 | 729 | 5 | 116.9 | 47 |
2015 | • Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 15 | 641 | 192 | 833 | 0 | 116.3 | 45 |
2016 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | FA | 491 | 194 | 685 | 3 | 115.5 | 42 |
2014 | Terrance West, Cle. | 94 | 673 | 64 | 737 | 5 | 114.7 | 41 |
2013 | Montee Ball, Den. | 58 | 559 | 145 | 704 | 4 | 114.4 | 43 |
2022 | Brian Robinson, Was. | 98 | 797 | 60 | 857 | 3 | 112.7 | 43 |
2017 | Samaje Perine, Was. | 114 | 603 | 182 | 785 | 2 | 112.5 | 43 |
2017 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | FA | 260 | 279 | 539 | 5 | 110.9 | 44 |
2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 63 | 507 | 180 | 687 | 3 | 107.7 | 44 |
2017 | Wayne Gallman, NYG | 140 | 476 | 193 | 669 | 1 | 106.9 | 46 |
2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 45 | 490 | 137 | 627 | 5 | 105.7 | 45 |
2008 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 55 | 454 | 273 | 727 | 0 | 105.7 | 49 |
2010 | Chris Ivory, N.O. | FA | 716 | 17 | 733 | 5 | 104.3 | 47 |
2020 | Cam Akers, LAR | 52 | 625 | 123 | 748 | 3 | 103.8 | 45 |
2017 | Matt Breida, S.F. | FA | 465 | 180 | 645 | 3 | 103.5 | 47 |
2018 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 71 | 521 | 72 | 593 | 5 | 103.3 | 46 |
2017 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 143 | 358 | 225 | 583 | 4 | 103.3 | 48 |
2016 | Kenneth Dixon, Balt. | 134 | 382 | 162 | 544 | 3 | 102.4 | 47 |
2008 | Peyton Hillis, Den. | 227 | 343 | 179 | 522 | 6 | 102.2 | 51 |
2020 | Zack Moss, Buff. | 86 | 481 | 95 | 576 | 5 | 101.6 | 49 |
2014 | Bishop Sankey, Ten. | 54 | 569 | 133 | 702 | 2 | 100.2 | 44 |
2010 | • C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 9 | 283 | 157 | 440 | 2 | 80.0 | 55 |
—Ian Allan