Factoid

April 23, 2023

Sophomore tight ends

Will experience lift last year's tight ends above this year's bumper crop?

It’s a big year for tight ends in the draft. Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave might all be picked in the top 40. But with tight ends tending to need time to develop, it’s reasonable to wonder whether they can outperform the less-talented tight ends from a year ago.

In the 2022 draft, no tight ends were selected until pick 55. It’s a modest group. But those guys have the advantage of having been with their NFL teams for a year, learning the offense. And while those players weren’t as heralded coming in, there were plenty that had credible rookie seasons.

Chigo Okonkwo was putting up top-10 numbers late in the year. Trey McBride (pictured) caught 20 passes in his last five games. Jelani Woods had an 8-catch game against the Steelers. Isaiah Likely had some effective fill-in games for the Ravens. And Greg Dulcich and Cade Otton played some.

With the advantage of being a year ahead in their development, some of those less-heralded 2022 tight ends probably will finish with better numbers than some of these choice rookies coming in. (But I speak in general terms; let’s see where these guys coming in land before we start placing them on draft boards.)

I ran some numbers on this, and they show that it’s pretty common for tight ends to emerge in their second season. In the last 20 years, 24 second-year tight ends have finished with top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring). Only two of those players had put up top-10 in their first year (in bold). Another 12 finished with top-20 numbers (tagged with dots), so that means 10 of the 24 made the substantial move up from outside the top 20.

The numbers suggest that there is a viable path for guys like McBride, Okonkwo and Woods to maybe finish with top-10 numbers. I’m not putting them there yet on my board. I’d feel a lot better about each of them if those teams weren’t terrible. But maybe.

2ND-YEAR TIGHT ENDS WITH TOP-10 NUMBERS
Year	Player	G	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk	Rookie Yr
2011	• Rob Gronkowski, N.E.	16	90	1327	18	330.9	1	42-546-10
2002	Todd Heap, Balt.	16	68	836	6	193.4	1	16-206-1
2011	Jimmy Graham, N.O.	16	99	1310	11	296.0	2	31-356-5
2004	Antonio Gates, S.D.	15	81	964	13	255.4	2	24-389-2
2018	• George Kittle, S.F.	16	88	1377	5	258.7	3	43-515-2
2004	• Jason Witten, Dall.	16	87	980	6	223.0	3	35-347-1
2011	• Aaron Hernandez, N.E.	14	79	910	7	216.5	3	45-563-6
2020	T.J. Hockenson, Det.	16	67	723	6	177.3	3	32-367-2
2005	• Chris Cooley, Was.	16	71	774	7	190.4	4	37-314-6
2003	Randy McMichael, Mia.	16	49	598	3	126.8	4	39-485-4
2019	• Mark Andrews, Balt.	15	64	852	10	209.2	5	34-552-3
2014	Travis Kelce, K.C.	16	67	862	6	189.2	6	0-0-0
2007	• Owen Daniels, Hou.	16	63	768	3	157.8	7	34-352-5
2010	Brandon Pettigrew, Det.	16	71	722	4	167.2	8	30-346-2
2020	• Noah Fant, Den.	15	62	673	3	149.3	8	40-562-3
2022	• Pat Freiermuth, Pitt.	16	63	732	2	148.2	8	60-497-7
2001	• Bubba Franks, G.B.	16	36	322	9	122.2	8	34-363-1
2018	David Njoku, Cle.	16	56	639	4	143.9	9	32-386-4
2008	Greg Olsen, Chi.	16	54	574	5	141.4	9	39-391-2
2003	Jeremy Shockey, NYG	9	48	535	2	113.5	9	74-894-2
2019	• Dallas Goedert, Phil.	15	58	607	5	148.7	10	33-334-4
2008	• Zach Miller, Oak.	16	56	778	1	139.8	10	44-444-3
2005	Ben Troupe, Ten.	15	55	530	4	132.0	10	33-329-1
2002	Alge Crumpler, Atl.	16	36	455	5	111.5	10	25-330-3

As long as I’ve got the numbers I, I will also show another 20 second-year tight ends from the last 20 years. These are the guys who ranked between 11th and 15th using PPR scoring. With this group, two had finished with top-10 numbers as rookies, while four had ranked in the top 20. (This looks like a far-more likely landing spot for McBride, Okonkwo, Woods and the other 2022 tight ends.)

2ND-YEAR TIGHT ENDS WITH TOP-15 NUMBERS
Year	Player	G	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk	Rookie Year
2015	Richard Rodgers, G.B.	16	58	510	8	160.1	11	20-225-2
2012	Kyle Rudolph, Min.	16	53	493	9	158.3	11	26-249-3
2007	Tony Scheffler, Den.	16	49	549	5	133.9	11	18-286-4
2009	Jermichael Finley, G.B.	13	55	676	5	152.6	12	6-74-1
2019	Mike Gesicki, Mia.	16	51	570	5	138.0	12	22-202-0
2007	Vernon Davis, S.F.	14	52	509	4	126.9	12	20-265-3
2009	John Carlson, Sea.	16	51	574	7	150.4	13	55-627-5
2014	Zach Ertz, Phil.	16	58	702	3	146.2	13	36-469-4
2015	Eric Ebron, Det.	14	47	537	5	130.7	13	25-248-1
2018	Evan Engram, NYG	11	45	577	3	126.3	13	64-722-6
2006	• Heath Miller, Pitt.	16	34	393	5	103.3	13	39-459-6
2003	Daniel Graham, N.E.	14	38	409	4	102.9	13	15-150-1
2004	L.J. Smith, Phil.	16	34	377	5	101.7	13	27-321-1
2001	Anthony Becht, NYJ	16	36	321	5	98.1	13	16-144-2
2011	• Jermaine Gresham, Cin.	14	56	596	6	151.6	14	52-471-4
2013	Coby Fleener, Ind.	16	52	608	4	140.8	14	26-281-2
2017	• Hunter Henry, LAC	14	45	579	4	126.9	14	36-478-8
2009	Fred Davis, Was.	16	48	509	6	134.9	15	3-27-0
2018	• O.J. Howard, T.B.	10	34	565	5	120.5	15	26-432-6
2004	Dallas Clark, Ind.	15	25	423	5	97.3	15	29-340-1

—Ian Allan

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