Around the NFL

April 29, 2023

Jake Moody

49ers use an early pick on a kicker

San Francisco takes a kicker in the third round: Jake Moody out of Michigan. I understand it, but it’s usually too early to go after that position.

Moody isn’t a can’t-miss prospect. He went 52 of 60 on field goals in his final two seasons. From 50-plus, he made only 3 of 7 last year (and 4-10 for his career) which isn’t quite what NFL teams are looking for. He helped himself a ton in this area by making a 59-yard field goal against TCU in his final game (pictured).

He's fine. Most seem to consider him the top kicking prospect on the board. What pushed him up to the end of the third round was the landscape of the league. The Rams and Cowboys don’t have kickers on their rosters, and the Packers are probably looking to get younger and cheaper by not re-signing Mason Crosby. The Patriots got into the kicker market in the middle of the fourth round, selecting Chad Ryland out of Maryland. I don’t think Moody would have made it through the fourth round.

The Patriots, as an aside, hit on a fourth-round kicker with Stephen Goskowski in 2006. They selected Justin Rohrwasser in the fifth round in 2020, but he never got on the field for them.

Picking kickers that early, however, doesn’t tend to pay off, either for NFL or fantasy purposes. Of the last 10 selected in the first four rounds of drafts, I see only three that ranked above-average in scoring in their first season. Sebastian Janikowski ranked 9th, Nate Kaeding ranked 10th and Alex Henery tied for 15th. It just doesn’t happen a lot.

Below see the list of all rookie kickers since 2000. There have been 12 who’ve scored at least 120 points in their first season, and none of them were picked in the first four rounds. Seven of those 12 were selected in later rounds (5th thru 7th), while five of them weren’t picked at all.

Justin Tucker, Wil Lutz, Chris Boswell: those guys weren’t drafted. Daniel Carlson and Harrison Butker: those guys were drafted but then landed on different teams. It’s a weird position.

In the chart below, the kickers who were obtained with high-value draft picks (first four rounds) are tagged with black dots.

In the case of Moody, at least he’s landing in a good situation. San Francisco ranked 6th in kicking points last year. I think Moody is better than Robbie Gould (I will consider making Moody one of the top dozen kickers on my board). But historical numbers aren’t great.

The 49ers earlier in the offseason traded for Zane Gonzalez. He’s actually been real solid over the last four years (when he’s been playing). I thought they were going to be comfortable going with him.

ROOKIE KICKERS, FIRST YEAR PRODUCTION
Year	Player	Rd	G	XP-A	FG-A	Pts
2014	Cody Parkey, Phi.	FA	16	54-54	32-36	150
2017	Harrison Butker, K.C.	7	13	28-28	38-42	142
2012	Blair Walsh, Min.	6	16	36-36	35-38	141
2020	Tyler Bass, Buff.	6	16	57-59	28-34	141
2007	Mason Crosby, G.B.	6	16	48-48	31-39	141
2020	Rodrigo Blankenship, Ind.	FA	16	43-45	32-37	139
2011	Dan Bailey, Dall.	FA	16	39-39	32-37	135
2016	Wil Lutz, N.O.	FA	16	49-50	28-34	133
2012	Justin Tucker, Balt.	FA	16	42-42	30-33	132
2007	Nick Folk, Dall.	6	16	53-53	26-31	131
2021	Evan McPherson, Cin.	5	16	46-48	28-33	130
2019	Matt Gay, T.B.	5	16	43-48	27-35	124
2018	Brett Maher, Dall.	FA	16	32-33	29-36	119
2011	• Alex Henery, Phi.	4	16	46-46	24-27	118
2017	Jake Elliott, Phi.	5	15	39-42	26-31	117
2001	Jay Feely, Atl.	FA	16	28-28	29-37	115
2004	• Nate Kaeding, S.D.	3	16	54-55	20-25	114
2015	Dustin Hopkins, Was.	6	15	39-40	25-28	114
2003	Josh Brown, Sea.	7	16	48-48	22-30	114
2014	Chandler Catanzaro, Ari.	FA	16	27-27	29-33	114
2014	Cairo Santos, K.C.	FA	16	38-38	25-30	113
2015	Chris Boswell, Pitt.	FA	12	26-27	29-32	113
2000	• Sebastian Janikowski, Oak.	1	14	46-46	22-32	112
2013	Caleb Sturgis, Mia.	5	16	33-33	26-34	111
2015	Jason Myers, Jac.	FA	16	32-39	26-30	110
2004	Lawrence Tynes, K.C.	FA	16	58-60	17-23	109
2002	Matt Bryant, NYG	FA	16	30-32	26-32	108
2000	Tim Seder, Dall.	FA	15	27-27	25-33	108
2022	• Cade York, Cle.	4	17	35-37	24-32	107
2019	Joey Slye, Car,	FA	16	31-35	25-32	106
2015	Josh Lambo, S.D.	FA	16	28-32	26-32	106
2015	Travis Coons, Cle.	FA	16	22-24	28-32	106
2019	Austin Seibert, Cle.	5	16	30-35	25-29	105
2013	Randy Bullock, Hou.	5	16	26-26	26-35	104
2009	Ryan Succop, K.C.	7	16	29-29	25-29	104
2006	• Stephen Gostkowski, N.E.	4	16	43-44	20-26	103
2008	Dan Carpenter, Mia.	FA	16	40-40	21-25	103
2003	Aaron Elling, Min.	FA	16	48-48	18-25	102
2005	Rob Bironas, Ten.	FA	16	30-32	23-29	99
2016	• Roberto Aguayo, T.B.	2	16	32-34	22-31	98
2019	Eddy Pineiro, Chi.	FA	16	27-29	23-28	96
2012	Greg Zuerlein, St.L.	6	16	26-26	23-31	95
2004	Josh Scobee, Jac.	5	16	21-21	24-31	93
2017	Ka'imi Fairbairn, Hou.	FA	16	32-35	20-25	92
2014	Patrick Murray, T.B.	FA	16	31-31	20-24	91
2005	• Mike Nugent, NYJ	2	16	24-24	22-28	90
2003	Seth Marler, Jac.	FA	16	30-30	20-33	90
2018	Jason Sanders, Mia.	7	16	35-36	18-20	89
2000	Paul Edinger, Chi.	6	16	21-21	21-27	84
2018	Daniel Carlson, Min.-Oak.	5	12	24-24	17-21	75
2001	• Bill Gramatica, Ari.	4	13	25-25	16-20	73
2017	Zane Gonzalez, Cle.	7	16	25-26	15-20	70
2000	Neil Rackers, Cin.	6	16	21-21	12-21	57
2020	Sam Sloman, Ten.-LAR	7	8	23-26	10-13	53
2015	Zach Hocker, N.O.-St.L.	7	8	12-13	10-14	42
2002	• Jeff Chandler, S.F.	4	6	14-14	8-12	38
2002	Hayden Epstein, Jac.-Min.	7	15	13-13	5-9	28
2000	Jeff Hall, St.L.	6	3	9-9	4-5	21
2008	Taylor Mehlhaff, N.O.	6	3	9-10	3-4	18
2014	Nate Freese, Det.	7	3	6-6	3-7	15
2007	Justin Medlock, K.C.	5	1	0-0	1-2	3
2011	Brandon Coutu, Buff.	7	1	3-3	0-1	3
2002	• Travis Dorsch, Cin.	4	0	0-0	0-0	0
2020	Justin Rohrwasser, N.E.	5	0	0-0	0-0	0
2001	John Markham, NYG	5	0	0-0	0-0	0
2009	David Buehler, Dall.	5	16	0-0	0-0	0
2006	Kurt Smith, S.D.	6	0	0-0	0-0	0
2005	Dave Rayner, Ind.	6	14	0-0	0-1	0
2001	Owen Pochman, NYG	7	10	0-0	0-2	0
2004	David Kimball, Ind.	7	0	0-0	0-0	0
2005	Paul Ernster, Den.	7	1	0-0	0-0	0
2012	John Potter, Buff.	7	6	0-0	0-0	0
2023	• Jake Moody, S.F.	3	?	?-?	?-?	?
2023	• Chad Ryland, N.E.	4	?	?-?	?-?	?

—Ian Allan

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