My longtime dynasty league (16 years running) holds its rookie draft this weekend, one week after the NFL Draft as always. It's a 3-round affair without a timer, and sometimes takes the full weekend (especially if it interferes with someone's darkness retreat -- no, I kid). I preview it here, then wrap up the actual results early next week.
This is a 12-team league with 26-player rosters, and rookies are gold -- everyone want to snag the next big thing. I've won it a few times but not recently, and I chalk it up to missing on most of my first-round rookie picks, due to bad judgment and bad injury luck. From 2018 to 2021, my first-rounders were Ronald Jones, N'Keal Harry, J.K. Dobbins and Javonte Williams. I think we can all laugh at the Jones and Harry missteps with the benefit of hindsight, but the process was fine on Dobbins and Williams (and who knows maybe they'll still pan out).
Anyway, here's my stab at how the draft might go, with comments interspersed. This is a PPR league with 2 flex spots, and it's TE-premium (they get 1.5 points per reception). So tight ends go earlier in this league than they might in Standard Yardage or even regular PPR, especially this year, when a record 9 were selected in the first three rounds. But I think about half of those players will be in the top 10 at the position a couple of years down the road.
Note: These are not my rankings, which are still in development. This is how I think the draft might actually go, which will hopefully be helpful to those with their own rookie drafts this weekend.
1.1 Bijan Robinson, Falcons
1.2 Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
First-round running backs tend to hit in fantasy leagues and tend to be coveted in rookie drafts. Gibbs (pictured) rookie year impact might suffer with David Montgomery around, but who's to say he doesn't prove to be the superior player. The Lions couldn't reasonably have drafted him at No. 12 and given away D'Andre Swift not to give Gibbs plenty of work. Last five running backs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL Draft have all had successful careers (working backward, Barkley, Fournette, McCaffrey, Zeke, Gurley).
1.3 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks
1.4 Quentin Johnston, Chargers
1.5 Jordan Addison, Vikings
1.6 Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
1.7 Zay Flowers, Ravens
Big fan of Smith-Njigba, who other former Ohio State wideouts say is better than they are and who posted the top time in the 20-yard shuttle (agility, lateral mobility) at the combine. Would have been nice if he went to a team that didn't have two entrenched starters Metcalf and Lockett, but he managed to stand out from competition at Ohio State and this is dynasty, after all (Lockett is 31). Johnston has the same obstacles and I don't like his game as much (some drops, oddly fewer touchdowns than you'd expect from a guy his size) but a talented guy working with a great QB, and starting WRs in Los Angeles are older/injury inclined.
Addison, Charbonnet and Flowers seem to me the start of the uncertain tier. Addison and Flowers are smaller guys, Charbonnet seems to be stuck behind Kenneth Walker. You can say that talent will emerge and starting running backs get hurt all the time, but if you drafted AJ Dillon a few years ago with that thought you'd have a decent but not great fantasy back; an average of roughly 800 total yards and 5 touchdowns. Addison won't be Minnesota's No. 1, but No. 2 isn't bad in that offense. Flowers could be the No. 1 in Baltimore, conceivably.
1.8 Dalton Kincaid, Bills
1.9 Kendre Miller, Saints
1.10 Michael Mayer, Raiders
1.11 Jonathan Mingo, Panthers
In this league, Kincaid might actually go earlier (I think Hockenson-Fant went 8-9 a couple of years ago). Really productive and talented receiver who should push Dawson Knox out of game plans fairly quickly. TCU's Miller may have to wait his turn in New Orleans, but who knows how soon that turn might come given Alvin Kamara's uncertain future. Mayer might not go this early, but I think he could be a popular target in Las Vegas, and I'm probably not alone. Mingo seems like the best of the remaining wideouts. I am aware that thus far this mock hews fairly close to how the NFL selected these players. If this draft were being held in the summer, after rookie minicamps and the start of training camps, things might be different. But right now, I don't see a lot of drafters selecting third and fourth-round players ahead of firsts and seconds.
1.12 Bryce Young, Panthers
2.1 Anthony Richardson, Colts
2.2 C.J. Stroud, Panthers
This is about when the top quarterbacks usually go in this league; exceptions (Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence) are rare. I personally drafted Cam Newton and Kyler Murray at about the same spot in the past. Yes these guys are valuable in dynasty leagues, but the fact is that only 12 are starting and most of us in the league have a couple of NFL starters. Sure you want to grab the next Mahomes or Josh Allen, but honestly I'm not sure that any of these guys are it.
2.3 Rashee Rice, Kansas City
2.4 Devon Achane, Dolphins
2.5 Sam LaPorta, Lions
2.6 Luke Musgrave, Packers
2.7 Jayden Reed, Packers
As Ian discussed in an item here on the site, the Packers drafted a wide receiver and two tight ends in the first three rounds. With the way their former targets have scampered out of town, it's a near-certainty that one of the three (those listed above, and another tight end, Tucker Kraft) will need to be a top target for Jordan Love. Minicamp reports are going to be very useful in this regard. I think I'd probably select Reed first. Rice is a high pick joining Patrick Mahomes; he's done slightly less in the NFL to this point than Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. The Southern Methodist product has good hands and size, and you have to love the landing spot. LaPorta seems as likely as any of the rookie tight ends to be an immediate starter. Last few Iowa tight ends selected early have worked out pretty well. We talked a little about Achane earlier this week. Running backs selected in the third round will be drafted in the second round of rookie drafts pretty reliably. Miami has a bunch of backs on the roster who won't be on the team much longer; Achane might push a couple off in August. Small guy who probably won't be featured, but it's a tough position fill and pass catching work will help make up for it in PPR.
2.8 Jalen Hyatt, Giants
2.9 Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys
2.10 Darnell Washington, Steelers
2.11 Chase Brown, Bengals
2.12 Tyjae Spears, Titans
This seems to be about where the rookie draft runs out of really compelling players -- i.e., the line where the rest of the players selected won't be much better than those still available after three rounds are complete. Hyatt fell a little further than expected. Schoonmaker might be a starting TE in Dallas sooner rather than later. Washington blew up the combine, he's a monster, but the Steelers have Pat Freiermuth. Brown and Spears could conceivably be starting for the Bengals and Titans, or they could be little-used backups, depending on how the Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry situations play out.
Third round: WR Nathaniel Dell, WR Marvin Mims, QB Will Levis, RB Tank Bigsby, RB Eric Gray, RB Roschon Johnson, QB Hendon Hooker, RB Israel Abanikanda, RB Deuce Vaughn, RB Zach Evans, WR Josh Downs, WR Cedric Tillman.
I'll come back Monday or Tuesday and break down how things actually went.