My main dynasty league held its annual rookie draft over the weekend, a three-round affair that we do a week after the NFL Draft is complete. It's a PPR league where tight ends get a point and a half per reception. Here's how it went down.
The thing that struck me is how quickly there's a level of sameness to the players. By the middle of the second round -- even earlier, if you're not in a TE-premium league like this one -- I was looking at wide receivers and running backs who looked pretty similar to the players who would be taken in the third round, or perhaps not selected at all. I found players I liked at each level, but the players I absolutely had to have dried up quickly. I traded back once and tried to do so a couple of other times.
1.1 Bijan Robinson, Falcons
1.2 Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
1.3 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks
We've talked about these players a lot here. I think they'll be the top 3 picks in every rookie draft (non-Superflex; in those kinds of leagues quarterbacks will go earlier). They were selected earliest in the actual NFL Draft, and while GMs get things wrong all the time, they were pretty close to consensus as the top skill guys. In each case it would be nice if they didn't go to teams that already had solid skill players at those positions, but it's a dynasty league, and no one really thinks either running back will take long to be the main guy in those backfields. Smith-Njigba (pictured) is used to playing with some other talented wide receivers on the field at Ohio State and producing anyway.
1.4 Jordan Addison, Vikings
1.5 Dalton Kincaid, Bills
1.6 Zay Flowers, Raven
1.7 Quentin Johnston, Chargers
In a comment on my preview last week, Ian said he thought Kincaid would be in his top 5 in this TE-premium league. And that happened, surrounded by other first-round wideouts. He's a lot better than Dawson Knox, and the Bills could look to use Knox more for blocking and Kincaid as a big wide receiver. Addison and Flowers are smaller players but could be No. 2s on their teams right away; certainly top-3. I'm not a big Johnston fan, too many larger busts from the Big 12 lately, but we're probably only a few months from Keenan Allen's next injury.
If you're scoring at home, that officially makes the seven skill position non-quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft the top 7 rookie picks. Either we trust that teams know what they're doing or we just really like the same players. Or we're just not very adventurous.
1.8 Anthony Richardson, Colts
1.9 Devon Achane, Dolphins
A jumbo-sized quarterback and a small, quick running back. I had some interest in Richardson if he made it a few more picks, but he's no sure thing. Achane goes to a really jumbled Dolphins backfield and I wonder if they'll ever have a featured back (or a guy that stays healthy if the settle on him). But so many of the Dolphins' current backs are either old (Raheem Mostert) or soon to be cut (Gaskin, Ahmed) that Achane might have a surprisingly large role fairly soon.
1.10 Michael Mayer, Raiders
1.11 Sam LaPorta, Lions
1.12 Jonathan Mingo, Panthers
So 1.10 was my original pick, and if I'd stayed put I'd have taken Mayer. He's stepping into Darren Waller's shoes with the Raiders, and maybe he'll wind up being the best tight end to come out of this draft. Similar production last year to Kincaid, and Notre Dame has put some solid tight ends into the NFL. But I decided to trade back a couple of spots for an extra pick, thinking I'd either still get Mayer, perhaps, or LaPorta (also a productive player at a school, Iowa, that's turned out some good tight ends lately), or a wide receiver I really liked. That ended up being Mingo, Carolina's second-round pick out of Ole Miss (two other recent bigger wideouts from that school, DK Metcalf and AJ Brown). If Mayer or LaPorta goes on to be the next Kelce or Kittle, I'll regret this trade. I received pick 2.12 in return for the two-spot drop.
2.1 Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
2.2 Kendre Miller, Saints
These running backs were in the discussion, but I wasn't feeling either one with a pick this early. Injury or suspension or whatever could turn each into a quick starter, but both situations could also be fantasy headaches, certainly in 2023. Miller doesn't have much experience in the passing game (protection or receiving). Charbonnet is hard-nosed runner and a very good receiver but he's in a backfield with Kenneth Walker. I don't dislike these players, but I didn't think there's enough upside to take at these spots. Couple years from now, maybe I'll feel differently.
2.3 Bryce Young, Panthers
2.4 Luke Musgrave, Packers
2.5 C.J. Stroud, Texans
2.6 Roschon Johnson, Bears
2.7 Rashee Rice, Kansas City
2.8 Jalin Hyatt, Giants
Couple of pocket passer quarterbacks, the top 2 picks in the draft, go about where I anticipated. Musgrave has a good shot to be the main tight end for his team, but he also has competition (which I'll get to later). Johnson only has D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert ahead of him in Chicago, reasonable to think he could emerge as the top back. Rice was a second-round pick who'll be working with Mahomes. Lots of upside (downside is Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and someone else I'm probably forgetting could theoretically emerge as the No. 1, or maybe the team will just spread it around year after year and never have a go-to wide receiver. Hyatt isn't going to that kind of passing game, but the Giants did a nice job of getting solid numbers late in the year out of lesser wide receivers, and Hyatt could quickly emerge as the best -- a little surprised he lasted til the third round of the NFL draft, actually.
2.9 Tyjae Spears, Titans
2.10 Marvin Mims, Broncos
2.11 Jayden Reed, Packers
2.12 Tucker Kraft, Packers
Spears should be the No. 2 in Tennessee fairly quickly. Tennessee hasn't fared too well drafting running backs since Henry, but anything is possible. Medical red flag for some teams, missing an ACL in one knee (can't be torn, at least). Broncos traded up to take Mims (my pick) at the bottom of the second round, which seems promising. Decent chance he's what they were hoping to get out of KJ Hamler, who hasn't been able to stay healthy, and maybe something more if they're able to ship off Courtland Sutton. Reed and Kraft, Ian discussed here some last week. The Packers have loads of open jobs for receivers, these are talented guys selected early, and Kraft in particular might turn out better than Luke Musgrave; better blocker, which could get him on the field quicker.
3.1 Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys
3.2 Tank Bigsby, Jaguars
3.3 Israel Abinkanda, Jets
3.4 Josh Downs, Colts
3.5 Chase Brown, Bengals
3.6 Will Levis, Titans
3.7 Darnell Washington, Steelers
3.8 Zach Evans, Rams
3.9 Cedric Tillman, Browns
3.10 Eric Gray, Giants
3.11 Michael Wilson, Cardinals
3.12 Tank Dell, Texans
A note on the two tight ends. I basically had both Schoonmaker and Washington similar to Kraft and knew I wanted to come away with one of them. As for why I chose Kraft, it was a combination of a couple of concerns about the others. Washington reportedly was red-flagged by some teams for a medical concern, a knee issue. I'm not sure if that report is legit, but he slid to the third round despite blowing up the combine, and joins a Steelers team that might prefer his massive size be deployed more as a blocker than receiver (and they've got Pat Freiermuth). I tend to believe the report that Dallas hoped to draft Dalton Kincaid, with Schoonmaker the fall-back a round later. But he's kind of similar to their fourth-round pick a year ago, Jake Ferguson, and I don't think it's a given he's going to win that job.
Many of the rest of the players taken here are likely or possible No. 2 running backs on their teams. I would have taken Brown (I have Mixon), but settled for Gray (behind Saquon). Evans could back up Cam Akers, but I got burned last year drafting Kyren Williams, who I need to cut to clear room for this year's shot in the dark. Tillman, Downs, Wilson and Dell are all decent dice rolls for teams looking for solid No. 2 or 3 receivers. Couple years ago I took Terry McLaurin about this area of the draft, so you never know.
Comments, questions and criticisms welcome, have at it.