I participated in an experts draft last night; these things tend to be held early to get results into published preseason magazines. Pretty pleased with my team, though I got sniped on Dallas Goedert right before I was going to select him. I ended up going with Pat Freiermuth at tight end.
Freiermuth had a pretty good year for the Steelers, catching 63 passes for 732 yards. In PPR leagues, he ranked 8th at his position. But he was a disappointment as a scorer, turning just 2 of those receptions into touchdowns. Can he improve on that in 2023?
In the last decade, 33 tight ends have caught at least 60 passes, but scored fewer than 5 touchdowns. Three of them did it last year: Freiermuth, Evan Engram, and Tyler Higbee, so 30 other players. And of those 30, two (Heath Miller and Dennis Pitta) retired in the offseason, so we'll remove them from the discussion.
Of those 28 other tight ends who caught 60 passes but fewer than 5 touchdowns, exactly half came back a year later to score at least 5, and half of those players (7) scored 7-plus. In the table, sorted by year, those 7-plus TD scores are in bold.
LOW-SCORING TES, ONE YEAR LATER (2013-2022) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | Next |
2013 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 77 | 872 | 4 | 69-821-12 |
2014 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 63 | 890 | 4 | 94-1,088-6 |
2014 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 66 | 761 | 3 | 60-535-2 |
2015 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 60 | 535 | 2 | Retired |
2015 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 77 | 713 | 3 | 69-673-3 |
2015 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 75 | 853 | 2 | 78-816-4 |
2016 | Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 86 | 729 | 2 | Retired |
2016 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 61 | 711 | 2 | 53-574-4 |
2016 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 80 | 1073 | 3 | 17-191-1 |
2016 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 69 | 673 | 3 | 63-560-5 |
2016 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 85 | 1125 | 4 | 83-1,038-8 |
2016 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 78 | 816 | 4 | 74-824-8 |
2017 | Benjamin Watson, Balt. | 61 | 522 | 4 | 35-400-2 |
2017 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 74 | 807 | 4 | 4-52-0 |
2017 | Jack Doyle, Ind. | 80 | 690 | 4 | 26-245-2 |
2018 | Austin Hooper, Atl. | 71 | 660 | 4 | 75-787-6 |
2018 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 64 | 634 | 4 | 39-367-6 |
2019 | Darren Waller, Oak. | 90 | 1145 | 3 | 107-1,196-9 |
2019 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 63 | 529 | 4 | 13-69-2 |
2019 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 69 | 734 | 3 | 44-521-5 |
2020 | Dalton Schultz, Dall. | 63 | 615 | 4 | 78-808-8 |
2020 | Evan Engram, NYG | 63 | 654 | 2 | 46-408-3 |
2020 | Hunter Henry, LAC | 60 | 613 | 4 | 50-603-9 |
2020 | Noah Fant, Den. | 62 | 673 | 3 | 68-670-4 |
2021 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 60 | 612 | 0 | 50-544-7 |
2021 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 68 | 1026 | 1 | 28-356-2 |
2021 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 73 | 780 | 2 | 32-362-5 |
2021 | Noah Fant, Den. | 68 | 670 | 4 | 50-486-4 |
2021 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 61 | 583 | 4 | 86-914-6 |
2021 | Tyler Conklin, Min. | 61 | 593 | 3 | 58-552-3 |
2022 | Evan Engram, Jac. | 73 | 766 | 4 | ??? |
2022 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 63 | 732 | 2 | ??? |
2022 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 72 | 620 | 3 | ??? |
Freiermuth himself scored 7 touchdowns as a rookie. That year he had Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him, and Kenny Pickett hasn't shown himself to be that caliber of quarterback.
But I don't see any reason why the tight end can't get back to that level as a scorer, if not better. One down year is one down year. I think I'll be OK with him as my starter in this league. Or with the other guy I could have drafted at a similar point in the draft, another 60-catch, sub-5 TD tight end, Engram.
--Andy Richardson