I participated in an experts draft last night; these things tend to be held early to get results into published preseason magazines. Pretty pleased with my team, though I got sniped on Dallas Goedert right before I was going to select him. I ended up going with Pat Freiermuth at tight end.

Freiermuth had a pretty good year for the Steelers, catching 63 passes for 732 yards. In PPR leagues, he ranked 8th at his position. But he was a disappointment as a scorer, turning just 2 of those receptions into touchdowns. Can he improve on that in 2023?

In the last decade, 33 tight ends have caught at least 60 passes, but scored fewer than 5 touchdowns. Three of them did it last year: Freiermuth, Evan Engram, and Tyler Higbee, so 30 other players. And of those 30, two (Heath Miller and Dennis Pitta) retired in the offseason, so we'll remove them from the discussion.

Of those 28 other tight ends who caught 60 passes but fewer than 5 touchdowns, exactly half came back a year later to score at least 5, and half of those players (7) scored 7-plus. In the table, sorted by year, those 7-plus TD scores are in bold.

LOW-SCORING TES, ONE YEAR LATER (2013-2022)
YearPlayerNoYdsTDNext
2013Antonio Gates, S.D.77872469-821-12
2014Delanie Walker, Ten.63890494-1,088-6
2014Heath Miller, Pitt.66761360-535-2
2015Heath Miller, Pitt.605352Retired
2015Jason Witten, Dall.77713369-673-3
2015Zach Ertz, Phil.75853278-816-4
2016Dennis Pitta, Balt.867292Retired
2016Eric Ebron, Det.61711253-574-4
2016Greg Olsen, Car.801073317-191-1
2016Jason Witten, Dall.69673363-560-5
2016Travis Kelce, K.C.851125483-1,038-8
2016Zach Ertz, Phil.78816474-824-8
2017Benjamin Watson, Balt.61522435-400-2
2017Delanie Walker, Ten.7480744-52-0
2017Jack Doyle, Ind.80690426-245-2
2018Austin Hooper, Atl.71660475-787-6
2018Kyle Rudolph, Min.64634439-367-6
2019Darren Waller, Oak.9011453107-1,196-9
2019Jason Witten, Dall.63529413-69-2
2019Tyler Higbee, LAR69734344-521-5
2020Dalton Schultz, Dall.63615478-808-8
2020Evan Engram, NYG63654246-408-3
2020Hunter Henry, LAC60613450-603-9
2020Noah Fant, Den.62673368-670-4
2021Cole Kmet, Chi.60612050-544-7
2021Kyle Pitts, Atl.681026128-356-2
2021Mike Gesicki, Mia.73780232-362-5
2021Noah Fant, Den.68670450-486-4
2021T.J. Hockenson, Det.61583486-914-6
2021Tyler Conklin, Min.61593358-552-3
2022Evan Engram, Jac.737664???
2022Pat Freiermuth, Pitt.637322???
2022Tyler Higbee, LAR726203???

Freiermuth himself scored 7 touchdowns as a rookie. That year he had Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him, and Kenny Pickett hasn't shown himself to be that caliber of quarterback.

But I don't see any reason why the tight end can't get back to that level as a scorer, if not better. One down year is one down year. I think I'll be OK with him as my starter in this league. Or with the other guy I could have drafted at a similar point in the draft, another 60-catch, sub-5 TD tight end, Engram.

--Andy Richardson