Rookie receivers have been on the upswing in recent years. They’ve been able to become notable contributors earlier, with guys like JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson leading the way. But I don’t see one of those guys this year.
There was the flurry in the first round, with receivers going with four consecutive picks. But I can’t say with much confidence that any of them will be even the second-best wide receiver on his own team. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison all went to teams that already have two established receivers.
Injuries occur, and maybe one of these guys is a little better than I’m expecting. Or maybe a later-round player like Marvin Mims or Jalin Hyatt can do something. But I don’t expect rookie receivers will factor heavily into my plans. (I’m not confident that I’ll be drafting any of them.)
The best rookie pass catcher might be a tight end rather than a wide receiver (the gets are hoping to use Dalton Kincaid as a slot-type pass catcher, and he could be pretty busy).
With this lesser draft class in front of me, I am reminded that second-year receivers tend to be a lot better than rookies anyway – even as rookies have been improving. With us being just a year removed from a really deep group of pass catchers, those are the guys to focus on – Treylon Burks (pictured), George Pickens, Christian Watson, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, Garrett Wilson should all be selected long before any rookie wide receiver.
Below, see a list of all first- and second-year receivers in the last 10 years who’ve finished with top-20 numbers (using PPR scoring). There are 11 rookie receivers (in bold), but there are 30 second-year guys.
The numbers get more balanced in the 20s. If we set aside those 41 receivers and look only at wide receivers ranking between 21st and 30th, there are 16 rookies and 14 second-year player.
YOUNG RECEIVERS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yr | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 2 | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | 332.8 | 4 |
2015 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 2 | 96 | 1,450 | 13 | 319.3 | 5 |
2013 | Josh Gordon, Cle. | 2 | 87 | 1,646 | 9 | 314.4 | 3 |
2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 1 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
2015 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 2 | 80 | 1,400 | 14 | 304.0 | 6 |
2018 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 2 | 111 | 1,426 | 7 | 298.9 | 8 |
2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 1 | 91 | 1,305 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
2013 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 2 | 89 | 1,421 | 7 | 285.6 | 8 |
2015 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 2 | 110 | 1,157 | 4 | 275.5 | 9 |
2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 1 | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
2020 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 2 | 83 | 1,303 | 10 | 273.3 | 7 |
2022 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 2 | 106 | 1,161 | 6 | 267.6 | 7 |
2022 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 2 | 75 | 1,356 | 8 | 261.2 | 8 |
2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 1 | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
2017 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 2 | 104 | 1,245 | 5 | 258.5 | 6 |
2022 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 2 | 95 | 1,196 | 7 | 256.6 | 9 |
2015 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 2 | 84 | 1,138 | 9 | 253.6 | 14 |
2020 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 2 | 70 | 1,075 | 11 | 249.5 | 11 |
2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 1 | 104 | 1,015 | 6 | 247.8 | 12 |
2017 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 2 | 75 | 1,183 | 7 | 247.2 | 8 |
2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 1 | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
2021 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 2 | 88 | 1,082 | 6 | 238.6 | 18 |
2014 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 2 | 76 | 1,210 | 6 | 233.0 | 14 |
2021 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 2 | 79 | 1,102 | 6 | 232.8 | 19 |
2015 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 2 | 85 | 997 | 8 | 232.7 | 16 |
2019 | DJ Moore, Car. | 2 | 87 | 1,175 | 4 | 232.5 | 16 |
2016 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 2 | 83 | 1,153 | 5 | 232.3 | 15 |
2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 1 | 73 | 1,008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
2015 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 2 | 64 | 1,031 | 10 | 227.1 | 19 |
2019 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 2 | 73 | 1,008 | 8 | 225.8 | 18 |
2020 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 2 | 87 | 1,118 | 4 | 225.8 | 20 |
2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 1 | 71 | 1,046 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
2019 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 2 | 72 | 1,112 | 6 | 222.8 | 19 |
2013 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 2 | 82 | 1,083 | 5 | 220.9 | 19 |
2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 1 | 61 | 593 | 6 | 219.0 | 18 |
2015 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 2 | 60 | 1,047 | 9 | 218.8 | 20 |
2016 | Tyrell Williams, S.D. | 2 | 69 | 1,059 | 7 | 216.9 | 19 |
2013 | Kendall Wright, Ten. | 2 | 94 | 1,079 | 2 | 213.9 | 20 |
2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 1 | 64 | 821 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
2017 | Robby Anderson, NYJ | 2 | 63 | 941 | 7 | 200.0 | 18 |
2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 1 | 58 | 917 | 7 | 197.7 | 20 |
—Ian Allan