Rookie receivers have been on the upswing in recent years. They’ve been able to become notable contributors earlier, with guys like JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson leading the way. But I don’t see one of those guys this year.

There was the flurry in the first round, with receivers going with four consecutive picks. But I can’t say with much confidence that any of them will be even the second-best wide receiver on his own team. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison all went to teams that already have two established receivers.

Injuries occur, and maybe one of these guys is a little better than I’m expecting. Or maybe a later-round player like Marvin Mims or Jalin Hyatt can do something. But I don’t expect rookie receivers will factor heavily into my plans. (I’m not confident that I’ll be drafting any of them.)

The best rookie pass catcher might be a tight end rather than a wide receiver (the gets are hoping to use Dalton Kincaid as a slot-type pass catcher, and he could be pretty busy).

With this lesser draft class in front of me, I am reminded that second-year receivers tend to be a lot better than rookies anyway – even as rookies have been improving. With us being just a year removed from a really deep group of pass catchers, those are the guys to focus on – Treylon Burks (pictured), George Pickens, Christian Watson, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, Garrett Wilson should all be selected long before any rookie wide receiver.

Below, see a list of all first- and second-year receivers in the last 10 years who’ve finished with top-20 numbers (using PPR scoring). There are 11 rookie receivers (in bold), but there are 30 second-year guys.

The numbers get more balanced in the 20s. If we set aside those 41 receivers and look only at wide receivers ranking between 21st and 30th, there are 16 rookies and 14 second-year player.

YOUNG RECEIVERS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS
YearPlayerYrRecYardsTDPPRRk
2021Justin Jefferson, Min.21081,61610332.84
2015Odell Beckham, NYG2961,45013319.35
2013Josh Gordon, Cle.2871,6469314.43
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.1811,45513306.65
2015Allen Robinson, Jac.2801,40014304.06
2018JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.21111,4267298.98
2014Odell Beckham, NYG1911,30512297.08
2013Alshon Jeffery, Chi.2891,4217285.68
2015Jarvis Landry, Mia.21101,1574275.59
2020Justin Jefferson, Min.1881,4007274.26
2020DK Metcalf, Sea.2831,30310273.37
2022Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.21061,1616267.67
2022Jaylen Waddle, Mia.2751,3568261.28
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.1921,1379259.77
2017Michael Thomas, N.O.21041,2455258.56
2022DeVonta Smith, Phil.2951,1967256.69
2015Brandin Cooks, N.O.2841,1389253.614
2020A.J. Brown, Ten.2701,07511249.511
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.11041,0156247.812
2017Tyreek Hill, K.C.2751,1837247.28
2014Mike Evans, T.B.1681,05112245.113
2021Michael Pittman, Ind.2881,0826238.618
2014DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.2761,2106233.014
2021CeeDee Lamb, Dall.2791,1026232.819
2015Jordan Matthews, Phil.2859978232.716
2019DJ Moore, Car.2871,1754232.516
2016Amari Cooper, Oak.2831,1535232.315
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.1731,0089227.816
2015Allen Hurns, Jac.2641,03110227.119
2019DJ Chark, Jac.2731,0088225.818
2020Terry McLaurin, Was.2871,1184225.820
2013Keenan Allen, S.D.1711,0468223.618
2019Courtland Sutton, Den.2721,1126222.819
2013T.Y. Hilton, Ind.2821,0835220.919
2016Tyreek Hill, K.C.1615936219.018
2015Sammy Watkins, Buff.2601,0479218.820
2016Tyrell Williams, S.D.2691,0597216.919
2013Kendall Wright, Ten.2941,0792213.920
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl.16482110208.820
2017Robby Anderson, NYJ2639417200.018
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.1589177197.720

—Ian Allan