There's some crazy talk going around involving 49ers quarterbacks. With last year's late-season starter Brock Purdy having undergone elbow surgery and former top-3 draft pick Trey Lance having not been healthy himself, we're supposed to believe that Sam Darnold might start for the team this year. It's best dismissed.
I understand that people (and especially casual fans or sports media types) like to hang onto top draft picks longer than is reasonable. Darnold (and another journeyman quarterback from that draft class, Baker Mayfield) was once a highly regarded young passer, so perhaps he can still be what it was once thought he would be. But there haven't been many signs of it happening.
Darnold entered the league five years ago. In those five years, while toiling for the Jets and Panthers, he's managed to compile both the lowest passer rating and the lowest completion percentage among all NFL starters (minimum 40 starts). Only two quarterbacks in that group have thrown for fewer yards, and only one has thrown fewer touchdowns, and only four have thrown more interceptions.
Darnold might be a nice fellow, but there's been no indication he's going to emerge as a viable NFL starting quarterback. Table (sorted by passer rating) compiled using the search tools at pro-football-reference.com.
| QUARTERBACK STATS, 2018-2022 (MINIMUM 40 STARTS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GS | Cmp% | Rate | Yds | TD | Int |
| Patrick Mahomes | 79 | 66.4 | 106.0 | 23957 | 192 | 48 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 81 | 65.6 | 103.2 | 20553 | 162 | 27 |
| Deshaun Watson | 53 | 67.6 | 102.2 | 13942 | 92 | 33 |
| Russell Wilson | 77 | 65.3 | 101.9 | 18407 | 147 | 42 |
| Kirk Cousins | 80 | 67.8 | 100.9 | 20934 | 153 | 50 |
| Joe Burrow | 42 | 68.2 | 100.4 | 11774 | 82 | 31 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 50 | 67.7 | 99.6 | 12039 | 75 | 37 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 66 | 66.5 | 99.4 | 14810 | 106 | 42 |
| Dak Prescott | 65 | 67.1 | 98.8 | 17952 | 121 | 48 |
| Lamar Jackson | 61 | 63.7 | 96.7 | 12209 | 101 | 38 |
| Philip Rivers | 48 | 67.4 | 96.6 | 13092 | 79 | 43 |
| Matthew Stafford | 66 | 66.0 | 96.6 | 17333 | 117 | 51 |
| Justin Herbert | 49 | 66.9 | 96.2 | 14089 | 94 | 35 |
| Tom Brady | 82 | 65.5 | 96.1 | 23055 | 161 | 52 |
| Derek Carr | 80 | 67.2 | 95.2 | 20532 | 114 | 55 |
| Matt Ryan | 76 | 66.9 | 94.1 | 20996 | 121 | 57 |
| Jared Goff | 78 | 65.3 | 93.6 | 20961 | 122 | 56 |
| Kyler Murray | 57 | 66.8 | 92.5 | 13848 | 84 | 41 |
| Josh Allen | 76 | 62.5 | 92.2 | 18397 | 138 | 60 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 49 | 65.4 | 91.7 | 13023 | 89 | 37 |
| Carson Wentz | 63 | 63.1 | 89.5 | 15051 | 102 | 45 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 43 | 65.3 | 88.4 | 9711 | 61 | 36 |
| Daniel Jones | 53 | 64.0 | 86.5 | 11603 | 60 | 34 |
| Baker Mayfield | 69 | 61.4 | 86.5 | 16288 | 102 | 64 |
| Andy Dalton | 53 | 62.9 | 85.5 | 12616 | 77 | 51 |
| Sam Darnold | 55 | 59.7 | 78.2 | 11767 | 61 | 55 |
Some of the other quarterbacks in Darnold's general range include Carson Wentz, Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky and Daniel Jones. With Wentz and Trubisky, some made the mistake of thinking they'd be viable starters the last couple of years. With Mayfield, perhaps some around Tampa Bay are in the process of making the mistake this year.
Jones just got a big new contract, coming off his best season with the Giants. In that case, there's the fact that head coach Brian Daboll was instrumental in developing another of those 2018 quarterbacks, Josh Allen, and it seems he might be doing the same thing with Jones. And Darnold supporters can point out that Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have had success getting solid play out of lightly regarded quarterbacks, like Purdy late last year and Jimmy Garoppolo.
But I think we've seen enough with Darnold to say that veteran backup is his NFL ceiling. The sunny optimism can be ignored. It will be Purdy, or perhaps Lance (since he hasn't yet proven he can't play). It won't be Darnold.
--Andy Richardson