Fantasy Index

Around the NFL

May 13, 2023

Sam Darnold

Don't believe the hype

There's some crazy talk going around involving 49ers quarterbacks. With last year's late-season starter Brock Purdy having undergone elbow surgery and former top-3 draft pick Trey Lance having not been healthy himself, we're supposed to believe that Sam Darnold might start for the team this year. It's best dismissed.

I understand that people (and especially casual fans or sports media types) like to hang onto top draft picks longer than is reasonable. Darnold (and another journeyman quarterback from that draft class, Baker Mayfield) was once a highly regarded young passer, so perhaps he can still be what it was once thought he would be. But there haven't been many signs of it happening.

Darnold entered the league five years ago. In those five years, while toiling for the Jets and Panthers, he's managed to compile both the lowest passer rating and the lowest completion percentage among all NFL starters (minimum 40 starts). Only two quarterbacks in that group have thrown for fewer yards, and only one has thrown fewer touchdowns, and only four have thrown more interceptions.

Darnold might be a nice fellow, but there's been no indication he's going to emerge as a viable NFL starting quarterback. Table (sorted by passer rating) compiled using the search tools at pro-football-reference.com.

QUARTERBACK STATS, 2018-2022 (MINIMUM 40 STARTS)
PlayerGSCmp%RateYdsTDInt
Patrick Mahomes7966.4106.02395719248
Aaron Rodgers8165.6103.22055316227
Deshaun Watson5367.6102.2139429233
Russell Wilson7765.3101.91840714742
Kirk Cousins8067.8100.92093415350
Joe Burrow4268.2100.4117748231
Jimmy Garoppolo5067.799.6120397537
Ryan Tannehill6666.599.41481010642
Dak Prescott6567.198.81795212148
Lamar Jackson6163.796.71220910138
Philip Rivers4867.496.6130927943
Matthew Stafford6666.096.61733311751
Justin Herbert4966.996.2140899435
Tom Brady8265.596.12305516152
Derek Carr8067.295.22053211455
Matt Ryan7666.994.12099612157
Jared Goff7865.393.62096112256
Kyler Murray5766.892.5138488441
Josh Allen7662.592.21839713860
Ben Roethlisberger4965.491.7130238937
Carson Wentz6363.189.51505110245
Mitchell Trubisky4365.388.497116136
Daniel Jones5364.086.5116036034
Baker Mayfield6961.486.51628810264
Andy Dalton5362.985.5126167751
Sam Darnold5559.778.2117676155

Some of the other quarterbacks in Darnold's general range include Carson Wentz, Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky and Daniel Jones. With Wentz and Trubisky, some made the mistake of thinking they'd be viable starters the last couple of years. With Mayfield, perhaps some around Tampa Bay are in the process of making the mistake this year.

Jones just got a big new contract, coming off his best season with the Giants. In that case, there's the fact that head coach Brian Daboll was instrumental in developing another of those 2018 quarterbacks, Josh Allen, and it seems he might be doing the same thing with Jones. And Darnold supporters can point out that Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have had success getting solid play out of lightly regarded quarterbacks, like Purdy late last year and Jimmy Garoppolo.

But I think we've seen enough with Darnold to say that veteran backup is his NFL ceiling. The sunny optimism can be ignored. It will be Purdy, or perhaps Lance (since he hasn't yet proven he can't play). It won't be Darnold.

--Andy Richardson

Sam Darnold Brock Purdy Trey Lance

20 Reader Comments:

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-05-13T15:39:52Z
I was surprised by the size of the contract they gave him: $4.5 million for a year, with $3.5 guaranteed. He's making more this year than Baker Mayfield. San Francisco appeared to be trying to trade Lance last month, so I guess there's a decent chance Darnold starts some games. Shanahan was just talking him up, so I guess you never know. But I haven't seen Darnold do any of note since he flashed in a couple of games early with the Jets. They beat Dallas, with him outplaying Dak Prescott, and he got into a shootout against Aaron Rodgers. But he's been pretty dreadful recently. I remember when Carolina opened the 2021 with some wins, and he just wasn't playing well. I remember a Thursday nighter down in Houston, with Troy Aikman pointing out some of the missed throws that were there to be had. If we're in one of those big Superflex leagues, with 45 quarterbacks getting rostered, I suppose he's worth a later-round gamble, but not a guy I'll be targeting.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-05-13T16:33:48Z
The money seems like a lot but it's just a little better than average backup money. Both the annual amount and the guarantees are around 36th-37th at the position, according to overthecap.com, and some of the guys below him are starters on cheaper rookie contracts: Sam Howell, Purdy, Ridder, even Mac Jones. When you get down to the mid-40s you're still talking only about a million less. Other quarterbacks making $4-$5 million this season include Mariota, Tyrod, Winston, Lock, Stidham... Going by contracts, the most likely backup to start some games this year looks like Taylor Heinicke -- he signed a 2-year, $14 million contract, with nearly half of that amount guaranteed.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-05-13T16:46:17Z
Mariota was the other guy who surprised me financially. He got $5 million for a year from the Eagles. Gardner Minshew got only $3.5 from the Colts. With Minshew having been there last year, I would have thought Philly would want him back (particularly if he's cheaper). But I don't know the particulars. Maybe Minshew wanted to go somewhere he might have a better chance of getting on the field. Maybe he's a Steichen guy. Style-wise, Mariota is more like Hurts, but I sure I hope I never have to watch him play a football game again.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-05-13T17:22:19Z
Brock Purdy's a nice story. But his lack of arm strength would always hinder the 49ers against top-level competition. Not the long-term answer. And Lynch and Shanahan know it.
Trey Lance - the jig's up on him. Colossal draft day mistake, but that's on Lynch and Shanahan, not on Lance.
They would never admit it, but I'm certain both Lynch and Shanahan are hoping they can turn Sam Darnold's career around and take advantage of the arm talents that were considered best in the 2018 draft.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-05-13T17:38:45Z
Look, I can't rule it out. But I don't see why we should actually believe coaching staffs talking up players when logic and several years of history and lesser production/performance dispute it. The Bengals are apparently talking up Trayveon Williams as their No. 2 running back. He's entering his fifth year in the league. Are there lots of examples of quarterbacks emerging in Year 6 or running backs in Year 5? Any?

Purdy underwent major elbow surgery and Lance has basically been hurt for his entire San Francisco career. Signing Darnold might just mean they need a warm body to take snaps at camp, and he's making roughly the going rate for a veteran quarterback who's started some games without distinction.

I just think we need to establish some reasonable expiration dates for players showing they have the potential to be good NFL starters, while acknowledging that coaches say good things about players on their team because they have to. They're not gonna trash someone they signed even though the simple fact is that 40 percent of the guys currently under contract for each team will get pink-slipped in the next three months.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-05-13T18:04:16Z
I concur, Andy.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-05-13T18:23:38Z
Geno Smith would be an example of one late bloomer.

Cody Hager

Portland, OR
2023-05-13T18:24:30Z
Semi cheating since he started as a WR but 2021 Cordarelle Patterson was a thing

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-05-13T18:25:45Z
That is true- I’m sure I was similarly dismissive of Geno.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-05-13T21:31:08Z
Thinking about it a little more, there are a few of these guys. Erik Kramer with a team-record 29 touchdown passes for the Bears in the '90s. Vinny Testaverde lost twice as many games as he won in Tampa Bay, with 35 more interceptions than touchdowns. He showed up with 33 TD passes in his 10th year. Ten years after the Broncos drafted him, Tommy Maddox went 8-4-1 as a starter with the Steelers, with 24 TDs.

Jason Pilon

Maplewood, MN
2023-05-14T00:49:15Z
Rich Gannon was a mediocre QB for 10 years until he got to Oakland.

Jeff Chapman

Richmond, VA
2023-05-14T11:58:05Z
I think Darnold has a puncher's chance with the 49er's. He finished last season throwing pretty well. He has spent his career so far with some terrible coaching and systems. Look what Joe Gibbs did for Joe Theisman. Showing my age with that one.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-05-14T13:20:13Z
I think there's a difference between high draft picks (like Darnold and Testaverde) who struggled and/or flopped with their original teams than veterans who toiled as backups and then did well with their starting opportunities years later. Kramer and Gannon didn't put up 40-50 starts of mediocre or bad play to open their careers before turning things around.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-05-14T13:25:55Z
Well, Gannon was mediocre for years before becoming a Pro Bowler with the Raiders. But he was a fourth-round pick with minimal expectations who toiled as a journeyman backup, not a disappointing washout. I just don't think the two are similar -- we have a pretty good body of work to look at with Darnold that suggests he's not very good.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-05-14T15:38:53Z
Alex Smith is another guy I thought of. He looked pretty crappy for a while with the 49ers. Then Harbaugh went 13-3 with Smith in a game-manager mode. It wasn't until Smith got to Kansas City that he started putting up some decent numbers (at times).

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-05-14T15:44:52Z
I was finalizing QB rankings yesterday. I don't think you could put together a top 40 and not have him in it. If we're assuming there's one QB from each team in the top 32 spots (with Purdy as San Francisco's #1), then I think we're down to Darnold being about as good as anyone else. At that point, you're comparing him to Mike White, Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, Bailey Zappe, Trey Lance, Will Levis and Colt McCoy. I would have White and Darnold probably as my top 2 of those guys. So if we're in Superflex league (with 24 QBs playing most weeks), I would definitely be open to taking a flyer on Darnold. Nick Mullens averaged 275 passing yards in his 16 starts for Kyle Shanahan, with 23 TDs. I would think Darnold might be as good as Nick Mullens (weapons they have now are better than what Mullens was working with).

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-05-14T15:47:37Z
Those other guys you know they're the No. 2. Darnold needs to beat out Lance (which I'm not ruling out, but surely San Francisco would prefer Lance wins that job), assuming Purdy is healthy and able to open as the starter.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2023-05-14T15:58:42Z
The 49ers signed Darnold (and not for just nothing -- they gave him $3.5 million guaranteed, whether he makes the team or not) and they floated that ridiculous rumor that multiple teams were expressing interest in trading for Lance. So I'm thinking Darnold is their guy, or at least that they think he's guy. But I will concede if your goal is to be sure you're getting a 2nd-string quarterback, you could put some of those other guys ahead of him. But I was trying to also weigh in the possibility that something good might happen should he get on the field. Levis, Dalton, McCoy -- those guys aren't doing anything of note.

Greg Pearman

Peyton, CO
2023-05-15T15:02:40Z
I go along with Andy, I think Darnold was and is a flash in the pan. I'm a Brock Purdy fan, I hope he can come back and compete again. A great kid that can throw darts. Good head on his shoulders. Maybe not a long bomb guy, but, really, that's not super necessary to win in the NFL. Danny Marino was a long bomber but only had one Super Bowl appearance. So, we shall see..

Greg Pearman

Peyton, CO
2023-05-15T15:36:15Z
One of my favorite QB's of all time is Bart Starr. A true and accurate long bomber, who won several championships. Only a few of those kinds of guys in NFL history though.. Got off of the subject a little bit, but, his name needs to be mentioned once in awhile.
Sign in to add a comment
Older
Newer

Fantasy Index