In general, I'm in on Aaron Rodgers this season. I think the new Jets quarterback will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, which has worked out for other older elite quarterbacks changing teams. And I think he can still play. But I'm not sure he's going to be able to do it for more than one season, and even for 2023, I can't help but wondering how much he has left.
Rodgers turned 39 during the season, so he'll celebrate his 40th birthday during 2023. It's an age that has seen very few top seasons from quarterbacks -- even fewer if you do nothing more than leave out Tom Brady.
Since 1970, there have been 26 times when a quarterback 39 or older has started at least half the season. About 30 percent of those players (8) finished with top-10 fantasy seasons (1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards, 4-point TD passes and 6-point TD runs). Half of them (4) were Tom Brady.
Warren Moon (twice), Brett Favre and Drew Brees are the other guys to do it. In 53 years. In the table, those top-10 seasons are in bold.
OLDER QUARTERBACKS (39-PLUS) STARTING 8-PLUS GAMES | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | PPR | Rk |
2022 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 45 | 17 | 490 | 733 | 4694 | 25 | 9 | 344.6 | 10 |
2022 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 39 | 17 | 350 | 542 | 3695 | 26 | 12 | 308.2 | 13 |
2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 44 | 17 | 485 | 719 | 5316 | 43 | 12 | 457.9 | 3 |
2021 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 39 | 16 | 390 | 605 | 3740 | 22 | 10 | 285.5 | 21 |
2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 43 | 16 | 401 | 610 | 4633 | 40 | 12 | 410.3 | 7 |
2020 | Philip Rivers, Ind. | 39 | 16 | 369 | 543 | 4169 | 24 | 11 | 305.7 | 20 |
2020 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 41 | 12 | 275 | 390 | 2942 | 24 | 6 | 254.9 | 22 |
2019 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 42 | 16 | 373 | 613 | 4057 | 24 | 8 | 322.3 | 15 |
2019 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 40 | 11 | 281 | 378 | 2979 | 27 | 4 | 262.6 | 25 |
2018 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 41 | 16 | 375 | 570 | 4355 | 29 | 11 | 350.9 | 13 |
2018 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 39 | 15 | 364 | 489 | 3992 | 32 | 5 | 356.9 | 9 |
2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 40 | 16 | 385 | 581 | 4577 | 32 | 8 | 363.7 | 3 |
2016 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 39 | 12 | 291 | 432 | 3554 | 28 | 2 | 298.1 | 21 |
2015 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 39 | 9 | 198 | 331 | 2249 | 9 | 17 | 147.9 | 31 |
2015 | Matt Hasselbeck, Ind. | 40 | 8 | 156 | 256 | 1690 | 9 | 5 | 122.0 | 35 |
2010 | Brett Favre, Min. | 41 | 13 | 217 | 358 | 2509 | 11 | 19 | 170.3 | 28 |
2009 | Brett Favre, Min. | 40 | 16 | 363 | 531 | 4202 | 33 | 7 | 343.6 | 7 |
2008 | Brett Favre, NYJ | 39 | 16 | 343 | 522 | 3472 | 22 | 22 | 274.1 | 11 |
2004 | Vinny Testaverde, Dall. | 41 | 15 | 297 | 495 | 3532 | 17 | 20 | 256.4 | 16 |
2001 | Doug Flutie, S.D. | 39 | 16 | 294 | 521 | 3464 | 15 | 18 | 258.4 | 17 |
1998 | Warren Moon, Sea. | 42 | 10 | 145 | 258 | 1632 | 11 | 8 | 128.6 | 28 |
1997 | Warren Moon, Sea. | 41 | 14 | 313 | 528 | 3678 | 25 | 16 | 293.9 | 7 |
1996 | Warren Moon, Min. | 40 | 8 | 134 | 247 | 1610 | 7 | 9 | 109.1 | 35 |
1995 | Warren Moon, Min. | 39 | 16 | 377 | 606 | 4228 | 33 | 14 | 351.6 | 3 |
1986 | Jim Plunkett, Oak. | 39 | 8 | 133 | 252 | 1986 | 14 | 9 | 160.0 | 22 |
1974 | Len Dawson, K.C. | 39 | 8 | 138 | 235 | 1573 | 7 | 13 | 109.5 | 24 |
Rodgers himself just missed the top-10 as a 39-year-old, finishing 13th among quarterbacks last year. With better overall receiving weapons with the Jets -- although actually, a couple of the same ones -- maybe he can sneak onto it in 2023.
But I'm expecting a short shelf life. I think he's got a year or two left, tops.
--Andy Richardson