A guy that's not getting interest in line with past production in early fantasy drafts is Dalvin Cook. That's understandable, since it's been a foregone conclusion for months that the Vikings are going to get rid of him. Will backup Alexander Mattison (pictured) step in and start putting up good numbers? We'll see.
ESPN's Vikings beat writer Kevin Seifert has a new story about it. He lays out the whole background, including the idea that the main reason Cook hasn't been released is that Minnesota is holding out hope of trading him for something. At some point, however, they'll probably need to give that up and cut him loose.
When they do, it will be Mattison who gets the first crack at the starting job. Mattison has had some big games filling in for Cook in the past, but as we've pointed out here, most of those games were against really bad defenses (including Detroit several times). The larger body of work suggests it's a big step down from Cook to his backup.
We don't do a lot with yards per carry, acknowledging that it's a number that can be largely reliant on offensive line, who's playing quarterback and other factors out of the running back's control. But when you see two backs putting up quite different numbers in the same offense behind the same offensive line, it seems worth mentioning.
The last two seasons, among all running backs with at least 70 carries (there are 120 of them), Cook shows up with two of the 50 best numbers, at 4.7 and 4.4 yards per attempt. Mattison shows up with two of the 25 worst (3.8 and 3.7). None of the running backs who have been worse than Mattison in this regard in each of the last two years are currently in line to be NFL starters in 2023.
| RUNNING BACKS, 2021-2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
| 2021 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 119 | 749 | 6.3 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 6 |
| 2022 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 80 | 463 | 5.8 | 31 | 19 | 218 | 5 |
| 2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 89 | 507 | 5.7 | 32 | 21 | 180 | 3 |
| 2022 | Khalil Herbert, Chi. | 129 | 731 | 5.7 | 12 | 9 | 57 | 5 |
| 2022 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 92 | 520 | 5.7 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 3 |
| 2021 | Tony Pollard, Dall. | 130 | 719 | 5.5 | 46 | 39 | 337 | 3 |
| 2021 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 228 | 1259 | 5.5 | 25 | 20 | 174 | 9 |
| 2021 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 137 | 754 | 5.5 | 34 | 26 | 158 | 0 |
| 2022 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 99 | 542 | 5.5 | 70 | 48 | 389 | 8 |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 332 | 1811 | 5.5 | 51 | 40 | 360 | 20 |
| 2021 | D'Ernest Johnson, Cle. | 100 | 534 | 5.3 | 25 | 19 | 137 | 3 |
| 2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 213 | 1121 | 5.3 | 72 | 59 | 395 | 7 |
| 2022 | Tony Pollard, Dall. | 193 | 1007 | 5.2 | 55 | 39 | 371 | 12 |
| 2022 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 220 | 1125 | 5.1 | 45 | 35 | 316 | 5 |
| 2021 | Chase Edmonds, Ariz. | 116 | 592 | 5.1 | 53 | 43 | 311 | 2 |
| 2022 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 302 | 1525 | 5.0 | 37 | 27 | 239 | 13 |
| 2022 | Gus Edwards, Balt. | 87 | 433 | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2022 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 210 | 1040 | 5.0 | 88 | 69 | 421 | 6 |
| 2021 | Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 78 | 386 | 5.0 | 27 | 22 | 174 | 5 |
| 2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 210 | 1035 | 4.9 | 17 | 16 | 139 | 4 |
| 2022 | Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 181 | 891 | 4.9 | 42 | 31 | 202 | 5 |
| 2022 | Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 77 | 379 | 4.9 | 33 | 28 | 214 | 1 |
| 2022 | Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 95 | 466 | 4.9 | 17 | 14 | 171 | 2 |
| 2022 | Zack Moss, 2TM | 93 | 456 | 4.9 | 13 | 11 | 39 | 1 |
| 2022 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 259 | 1269 | 4.9 | 26 | 20 | 78 | 11 |
| 2022 | Jeff Wilson, 2TM | 176 | 860 | 4.9 | 37 | 22 | 185 | 6 |
| 2022 | Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 170 | 830 | 4.9 | 14 | 13 | 130 | 5 |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 340 | 1653 | 4.9 | 64 | 53 | 400 | 12 |
| 2022 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 144 | 695 | 4.8 | 31 | 21 | 122 | 9 |
| 2022 | Caleb Huntley, Atl. | 76 | 366 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 2021 | Jordan Howard, Phil. | 86 | 406 | 4.7 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 3 |
| 2021 | James Robinson, Jac. | 164 | 767 | 4.7 | 46 | 31 | 222 | 8 |
| 2021 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 171 | 799 | 4.7 | 65 | 52 | 391 | 10 |
| 2022 | Christian McCaffrey, 2TM | 244 | 1139 | 4.7 | 108 | 85 | 741 | 13 |
| 2021 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 249 | 1159 | 4.7 | 49 | 34 | 224 | 6 |
| 2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 207 | 963 | 4.7 | 20 | 19 | 137 | 6 |
| 2021 | Duke Johnson, Mia. | 71 | 330 | 4.7 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 3 |
| 2021 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 188 | 870 | 4.6 | 50 | 40 | 228 | 8 |
| 2022 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 177 | 819 | 4.6 | 52 | 38 | 280 | 6 |
| 2021 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 149 | 688 | 4.6 | 40 | 29 | 176 | 8 |
| 2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 228 | 1050 | 4.6 | 35 | 27 | 165 | 9 |
| 2021 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 202 | 929 | 4.6 | 21 | 18 | 132 | 15 |
| 2021 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 133 | 606 | 4.6 | 18 | 14 | 123 | 5 |
| 2021 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 203 | 918 | 4.5 | 38 | 28 | 213 | 10 |
| 2021 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 180 | 812 | 4.5 | 84 | 69 | 454 | 10 |
| 2022 | D'Onta Foreman, Car. | 203 | 914 | 4.5 | 9 | 5 | 26 | 5 |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 204 | 915 | 4.5 | 127 | 107 | 722 | 18 |
| 2022 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 192 | 861 | 4.5 | 40 | 28 | 143 | 4 |
| 2021 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 99 | 442 | 4.5 | 41 | 37 | 343 | 2 |
| 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 203 | 903 | 4.5 | 53 | 43 | 316 | 7 |
| 2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 295 | 1312 | 4.4 | 76 | 57 | 338 | 10 |
| 2022 | Latavius Murray, 2TM | 171 | 760 | 4.4 | 35 | 27 | 132 | 6 |
| 2022 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 264 | 1173 | 4.4 | 56 | 39 | 295 | 10 |
| 2022 | Kenyan Drake, Balt. | 109 | 482 | 4.4 | 26 | 17 | 89 | 5 |
| 2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 206 | 911 | 4.4 | 94 | 70 | 647 | 20 |
| 2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 349 | 1538 | 4.4 | 41 | 33 | 398 | 13 |
| 2022 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 106 | 462 | 4.4 | 23 | 17 | 97 | 3 |
| 2021 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 147 | 639 | 4.4 | 55 | 36 | 325 | 4 |
| 2021 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 119 | 517 | 4.3 | 23 | 19 | 129 | 6 |
| 2021 | Devonta Freeman, Balt. | 133 | 576 | 4.3 | 42 | 34 | 190 | 6 |
| 2021 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 187 | 803 | 4.3 | 37 | 34 | 313 | 7 |
| 2021 | Boston Scott, Phil. | 87 | 373 | 4.3 | 16 | 13 | 83 | 7 |
| 2021 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 219 | 937 | 4.3 | 20 | 18 | 154 | 10 |
| 2022 | James Conner, Ari. | 183 | 782 | 4.3 | 58 | 46 | 300 | 8 |
| 2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 220 | 939 | 4.3 | 39 | 30 | 165 | 5 |
| 2021 | D'Onta Foreman, Ten. | 133 | 566 | 4.3 | 11 | 9 | 123 | 3 |
| 2022 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 71 | 302 | 4.3 | 23 | 17 | 151 | 6 |
| 2021 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 101 | 428 | 4.2 | 13 | 10 | 64 | 4 |
| 2021 | Tevin Coleman, NYJ | 84 | 356 | 4.2 | 16 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| 2021 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 237 | 1002 | 4.2 | 65 | 47 | 287 | 12 |
| 2021 | Latavius Murray, Balt. | 119 | 501 | 4.2 | 13 | 10 | 75 | 6 |
| 2021 | Khalil Herbert, Chi. | 103 | 433 | 4.2 | 16 | 14 | 96 | 2 |
| 2022 | Cam Akers, LAR | 188 | 786 | 4.2 | 18 | 13 | 117 | 7 |
| 2022 | Samaje Perine, Cin. | 95 | 394 | 4.1 | 51 | 38 | 287 | 6 |
| 2022 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 186 | 770 | 4.1 | 43 | 28 | 206 | 7 |
| 2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 292 | 1205 | 4.1 | 48 | 42 | 314 | 16 |
| 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 151 | 617 | 4.1 | 78 | 62 | 452 | 7 |
| 2021 | Devontae Booker, NYG | 145 | 593 | 4.1 | 45 | 40 | 268 | 3 |
| 2022 | Jamaal Williams, Det. | 262 | 1066 | 4.1 | 16 | 12 | 73 | 17 |
| 2022 | Eno Benjamin, 3TM | 77 | 313 | 4.1 | 34 | 25 | 193 | 2 |
| 2021 | Sony Michel, LAR | 208 | 845 | 4.1 | 33 | 21 | 128 | 5 |
| 2022 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 70 | 283 | 4.0 | 22 | 17 | 102 | 3 |
| 2022 | Jerick McKinnon, K.C. | 72 | 291 | 4.0 | 71 | 56 | 512 | 10 |
| 2021 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 153 | 618 | 4.0 | 69 | 52 | 548 | 11 |
| 2022 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 223 | 897 | 4.0 | 77 | 57 | 490 | 4 |
| 2021 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 258 | 1037 | 4.0 | 52 | 42 | 294 | 10 |
| 2021 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 217 | 872 | 4.0 | 64 | 54 | 348 | 9 |
| 2022 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 201 | 801 | 4.0 | 40 | 34 | 316 | 6 |
| 2021 | Jamaal Williams, Det. | 153 | 601 | 3.9 | 28 | 26 | 157 | 3 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 307 | 1200 | 3.9 | 94 | 74 | 467 | 10 |
| 2022 | Brian Robinson, Was. | 205 | 797 | 3.9 | 12 | 9 | 60 | 3 |
| 2021 | Darrel Williams, K.C. | 144 | 558 | 3.9 | 57 | 47 | 452 | 8 |
| 2022 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 210 | 814 | 3.9 | 75 | 60 | 441 | 9 |
| 2022 | James Robinson, 2TM | 110 | 425 | 3.9 | 14 | 11 | 51 | 5 |
| 2022 | Alexander Mattison, Min. | 74 | 283 | 3.8 | 18 | 15 | 91 | 6 |
| 2021 | Alex Collins, Sea. | 108 | 411 | 3.8 | 10 | 9 | 87 | 2 |
| 2022 | Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 123 | 468 | 3.8 | 44 | 35 | 210 | 4 |
| 2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 272 | 1034 | 3.8 | 53 | 41 | 229 | 10 |
| 2022 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 231 | 876 | 3.8 | 23 | 17 | 92 | 12 |
| 2021 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 225 | 849 | 3.8 | 51 | 42 | 301 | 7 |
| 2021 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 240 | 898 | 3.7 | 67 | 47 | 439 | 9 |
| 2022 | Rachaad White, T.B. | 129 | 481 | 3.7 | 58 | 50 | 290 | 3 |
| 2021 | James Conner, Ariz. | 202 | 752 | 3.7 | 39 | 37 | 375 | 18 |
| 2021 | Jeff Wilson, S.F. | 79 | 294 | 3.7 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 2 |
| 2022 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 149 | 546 | 3.7 | 58 | 46 | 353 | 5 |
| 2021 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 162 | 593 | 3.7 | 57 | 41 | 263 | 4 |
| 2021 | Alexander Mattison, Min. | 134 | 491 | 3.7 | 39 | 32 | 228 | 4 |
| 2021 | Mike Davis, Atl. | 138 | 503 | 3.6 | 58 | 44 | 259 | 4 |
| 2021 | Zack Moss, Buff. | 96 | 345 | 3.6 | 32 | 23 | 197 | 5 |
| 2021 | Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 172 | 612 | 3.6 | 37 | 25 | 174 | 6 |
| 2021 | Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 173 | 612 | 3.5 | 63 | 49 | 234 | 7 |
| 2022 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 189 | 668 | 3.5 | 83 | 73 | 523 | 6 |
| 2022 | Melvin Gordon, Den. | 90 | 318 | 3.5 | 32 | 25 | 223 | 2 |
| 2022 | Zonovan Knight, NYJ | 85 | 300 | 3.5 | 14 | 13 | 100 | 1 |
| 2022 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 114 | 402 | 3.5 | 54 | 41 | 288 | 3 |
| 2021 | Carlos Hyde, Jac. | 72 | 253 | 3.5 | 21 | 12 | 65 | 1 |
| 2021 | Rex Burkhead, Hou. | 122 | 427 | 3.5 | 32 | 25 | 186 | 3 |
| 2021 | Mark Ingram, 2TM | 160 | 554 | 3.5 | 35 | 27 | 162 | 2 |
| 2021 | Phillip Lindsay, 2TM | 88 | 249 | 2.8 | 5 | 4 | 45 | 2 |
Although it's widely believed that Cook won't be on Minnesota's roster this season, Mattison isn't getting a lot of love in early fantasy drafts. Looking at the ADP numbers at fantasypros.com, Mattison is currently 33rd among running backs, down near a lot of committee types. Cook is 16th -- good, but he was a top-10 back just last season.
Mattison is likely to be an NFL starter in Week 1, and once Cook is actually released, Mattison's ADP will rise. But I doubt I'll be selecting him anywhere. Seems unlikely he'll be productive; better to throw a last-round pick at one of young backups, either Ty Chandler, returner Kene Nwangwu, or seventh-round rookie DeWayne McBride. Those are the guys to monitor in the preseason; see if one can make a run at the job if Mattison disappoints.
--Andy Richardson